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Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

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Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#971
post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, you're arguing that just because mathematicians are a minuscule, it doesn't matter for prosperity? Because, if so, that is an insane take honestly.

Really? "The benefit to all of humanity from advances in mathematics outweighs the lost jobs of research mathematicians". That's an insane take?

It is the very humanity that is absent in all of this. The power is still in the hands of a very few. I feel you're dismissing this with a grandeur vision of AI developement.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#972

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apart from that, republicans are ridiculously inept. They're not. They're really not. They're incredibly capable and are currently executing long term plans successfully, one after another. This goes all the way back to Regan and the disenfranchisement of education. They know exactly what they're doing to erode democracy. Calling them inept is dangerously stupid at best, and at worst is just right wing propaganda t…

There's no "long term plans." It just seems that way because republicans are relatively ideologically homogenous, so it seems like there's much more top-down and long-term planning than there is. Democrats, by contrast, have much more permanent political infrastructure. At the top law schools, for example, there's probably 10x as many liberal organizations as conservative ones. Democrats enjoy politics , so they are…

Someone conjectured that every organization that doesn't have opposing Leftism as its mission will eventually be run by Leftists.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#973

People argue whether we are at y-5, y, or y+5, meanwhile we seem to be on a y=2^x exponential that keeps delivering more and more impressive results. The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn, but I’ve noticed Fable to be quite a big step up there. How about politics? Will we develop new ways to let…

>let people express their own values in democracies, or will we just get much better at manipulation? Both are the same thing. Two sides of the same coin.

The distinction is between information flowing from people to power (elicitation), vs. it flowing from power to people (persuasion). These are not the same, even if they are closely related.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#974

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we didn't move the goalposts, then by definition we already knew exactly where we were headed at the beginning, and we very clearly did not. To me, the goalposts were already defined by the person you were responding to. "The impact of AI is getting undeniable", so, the goalposts are "the impact of AI". Probably something like "the impact of AI is high, or will be soon". Note that this does not depend on things…

Take your point, although > "The impact of AI is getting undeniable", so, the goalposts are "the impact of AI". Probably something like "the impact of AI is high, or will be soon". those are not goalposts - that's an incredible vague 'goal'. What are we moving here exactly?

The "goal" here, not in the sense of what AI scientists are shooting for, but in terms of "goal", "goalpost", and the idiom of "moving the goalposts", would be to invalidate the current argument. Typically, you "goal" when you successfully disprove the other person's argument.

Thus "moving the goalposts" is for the defenders to shift what argument that the other side is trying to disprove.

If the argument is "the impact of AI is getting undeniable", you'd try to show that impact of AI is not that high, and not looking to be that high in the near future.

The other side might move the goalposts by saying something like "well, it doesn't matter if AI is actually that broadly impactful right now, all that matters is whether it's impactful in the field of mathematics". At which point, you might be frustrated because the effort you put into engaging their previous argument is now moot.

PS - yeah, yeah, I overexplained

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#975
post #254
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why can’t we prompt the LLM “just do math research”? This is what I don’t understand.

100% agree. If the models are so capable that they're advancing math, it doesn't seem like a stretch to expect they should be able to determine with "doing math research" entails and the best way to use their capabilities towards that end. Why do we need to hand hold the models by telling them to do parallel research, keep threads independent, etc.

Because they're not aware of what user wants, and they need to know what expectation is, if it finds out it's a famous open problem it may think informing the user and not trying is best option as average user may not prefer it spending hours when success isn't guaranteed, by telling it to use it's available tools and not stop at partial progress, use subagents for various independent approaches it's allowing LLM to know what it should do and what counts as success. These things do great when goal is well defined.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#976

Earlier quoted context omitted.

both democrats and republicans take their money from the same donors. its all a show.

It's a show until you're rounded up by ICE or you can't get an abortion in your state (or others because of mass surveillance).

its a bit like how big companies will pullin a CEO who;s job is to do all the unpopular stuff and then summarily dismiss him after (while keeping the policies he created in tact).

ideally we should be throwing our support behind democratic socialists like zorhan mamdani but old school moderate democrats are just as bad as trump. they are juts happy letting trump do the dirty work. At the end of the day they are both working for a certain foreign government and not the interests of the american people.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#977

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Labs spend billions hiring experts to generate new data, and better models can better filter existing training data and generate new synthetic data. There’s no reason for that to run out, it’s just expensive. You could view this as just continually patching a leaky ship. But it seems to work.

> Labs spend billions hiring experts to generate new data I thought this is mostly RL data. In my previous comment i was referring to pertaining data.

I remember listening to Andrej Karpathy talk in a podcast about how synthetic data in particular is used to generate more data for pre-training. I see no reasons for that to have changed. I think it is likely a lot of the new data they are paying for contributes to pre-training as well.

I would also be very shocked if they weren't filtering or prioritising existing pre-training data as well, for example to do curriculum learning or to avoid data that degrades performance.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#978

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but there is little evidence this had a meaningful effect on votes.

I don't think the outcome is what makes things like this potentially illegal. You're not allowed to bribe public officials. You're not going to escape the law by arguing that the bribe didn't get you the result you wanted.

Bribes are not speech though, and advertising is.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#979
post #96

Replace philosophers for mathematicians and Douglas Adams was spot on again. Whilst current models can't 'intuit' and come up with conjectures, they can certainly disprove some of them very quickly through the kind of grind that humans can't do. I suppose there really are some mathematicians out there today, whose last few years of study, have just been up-ended by this. -- "Yes we are," insisted Majikthise. "We are…

> Whilst current models can't 'intuit' and come up with conjectures People keep saying this. Why? Surely the AI can complete the prompt “Generate new research questions based on these observations”? When I read the reasoning traces of coding models they are constantly asking themselves questions and attempting to answer them.

Well imho, it's a bit of a fundamental problem for a certain aspect of the meaning of "to intuit".

Since we're quoting Douglas Adams in this thread, I'll mention something I posted a while back, with his writings as example. After Douglas Adams passed away, somebody was tasked to "finish" The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy :

> And Another Thing... is the sixth and final novel in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series. Written by Eoin Colfer with the blessing of Douglas Adams' widow Jane Belson

Being a rather big fan, I immediately bought and read this novel and I have to say that Eoin Colfer did a really really great job, nailing the tone, humour and writing style of Douglas Adams.

IMVHO, he did about as good as anyone could reasonably expect someone to do, when given this task. It was big shoes to fill, and I was impressed.

But it just also wasn't good enough, in a weird way that I found hard to put my finger on at first.

The thing is that Colfer was doing the tone of voice, even came up with somewhat new jokes perfectly in the style of, etc etc. And for the sake of argument let's say he was able to get "arbitrarily close".

But there was always one thing he couldn't do: Actually make something new happen, make a new kind of joke, do a real plot twist, a big reveal, stuff like that. Because then it would deviate from Douglas Adams' work too much.

However, if Douglas Adams was still alive, this limitation would not apply to him: he could make a new kind of joke, do a plot twist, big reveal, and it would become canon.

This the best "good faith" argument I can present for how LLMs lack "intuition", in some sense. Now "intuition" is not a very exactly defined term, but I'm arguing that the thing I'm describing here, is at least a part of intuition, that an LLM fundamentally can't reach (until they start getting their own volition, which I would prefer they didn't).

To address your question:

> Surely the AI can complete the prompt “Generate new research questions based on these observations”?

Yes I imagine it could do that very well. But it would still need a human to decide if the research questions are "relevant" or "within scope" of what the human wants (a.k.a. their volition). Without that filter, the research would just bloom out exponentially, with more and more questions nobody was asking.

And yes, up to some point that "blooming" behaviour is a useful aspect of research, the exploratory aspect/phase, but at some point you need to get back to the "synthesis" aspect/phase, to distill all the explorations back to "stuff that matters". And just like Douglas Adams vs Eoin Colfer, only the human who wants to know something, can decide to widen or change the domain of that synthesis, but if the LLM were to decide this (outside of exploratory phase), it would actually be considered the wrong answer.

And this is not at all to say you can't do research with LLMs, obviously you can. But this is just a thing they can't do, on a real philosophical level. I'm also not saying you can't work around this limitation, you probably can, I'm just saying it exists.

Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science

#980
post #970

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some countries, especially less developed ones, poverty levels are declining, but in the US the trend seems to be the opposite. The middle class is being gutted and descending into survival mode if not poverty, while the top few percent become obscenely rich at their expense. In any case historical trends are really irrelevant to the discussion, which is about the impact of AI, which threatens to take away almost…

> In some countries, especially less developed ones, poverty levels are declining, but in the US the trend seems to be the opposite. This *seems* does a lot of heavy lifting here. That's not what data shows. > The middle class is being gutted and descending into survival mode if not poverty, while the top few percent become obscenely rich at their expense. The middle class is getting smaller because people are gettin…

The median income in the US is $84K. Try feeding/housing a family on that, saving for a new car, paying for college education..

The US has the 2nd highest poverty level of all OECD countries, second only to Costa Rica.

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