I'm looking forward to prices for RAM and SSDs returning to sane levels.
The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet
151–154 of 154 posts
Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
They are both products with multiple sellers competing on price. If one seller raises their price, people can switch to the other seller. You can't only look at how much "value" the buyer gets from the product. That's the mistake made by the original comment. You might ask "why don't all of the LLM providers just raise their prices?". That's called price fixing or collusion, and is generally illegal.
That makes sense to me. Thanks for explaining. And I'm sorry to you and the parent poster for being needlessly snarky, I wasn't in a great mood when I wrote my original comment. I'll avoid bothered-posting in the future ;).
No problem! Thanks for the apology :)
Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If models are becoming commodities, and the main bottleneck is actually serving them at scale, Anthropic does not appear particularly well positioned. That has been my thesis ever since Dario went on about how difficult it is to forecast capacity on the Dwarkesh podcast right about the time Claude started having 9's comparable to GitHub's. Even as an outsider, seeing all the cloud providers bemoan their lack of cap…
> But I can't believe Dario, probably the most AI-pilled of them all, would under-estimate demand so severely. To be fair, this mess up actually increases my respect for him, as he focused on making sure that they could continue to run the business under reasonable assumptions rather than YOLOing compute into existence like OpenAI.
My surprise is rooted in the point that he seems to be the biggest believer in AI there is -- to the extent the label "zealot" gets bandied about at times -- and he still underestimated the demand they would get. I would not have classified Altman as a bigger believer than Dario.
My guess is OpenAI, having the first mover advantage and the bulk of AI traffic for a very long time, could gauge the trends much better than anyone else.
Re: The AI bubble is popping; we just don't know it yet
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
> So take robots: I can promise you that you won't see robotics in every household in the next decade (especially so if we exclude the current market of robot vacuums). People in 2016 were adamant that the current frontier LLM capabilities would not be achievable in the next decade. Modern home robots prototypes look awkward and mostly useless the same way GPT-2 was looking like a curious but mostly useless thing in…
Worth buying? Maybe. Actually bought and distributed? No. Again, hardware just doesn't roll out that fast, and you're talking about trying to distribute expensive hardware to a population with a 47k median yearly wage. I've built robots. Even if the software expense is ~$0... you're not going to escape the fact that a robot that can do anything remotely similar to household work is just going to be expensive. Like, s…
I agree. Not to mention safety.
To be useful they’re gonna have to be capable and powerful. If they’re good enough to be useful, they will be dangerous.
Advanced household robots are closer to fully autonomous cars and airplanes than roombas. The code is safety critical. Imagine something capable of flooding or burning down a building with hundreds of people if left to the vibe coders?