171–180 of 189 posts
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Portes
Appreciate the links but I think we can both agree that there is no evidence that will come close to supporting "the entire left wing of politics" predicted the mortgage crisis
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You can just not have investments, which is more common than you think. Being young, lots of people I know don't even have enough of a cushion to invest, and others want to avoid all risk (especially in the current market) and park their money in a high-interest savings account. Of course, this doesn't insulate you from second- or third-order effects, but it does remove the possibility of your money being immediately…
As long as you participate in the economy, a recession will get you. Even if you’re poor, homeless and unemployed, people’s generosity towards you in a recession goes down.
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You can just not have investments, which is more common than you think. Being young, lots of people I know don't even have enough of a cushion to invest, and others want to avoid all risk (especially in the current market) and park their money in a high-interest savings account. Of course, this doesn't insulate you from second- or third-order effects, but it does remove the possibility of your money being immediately…
If you work, you inevitably have some investments occurring. But every working adult is invested in the stock market. If you are young, impact is less scary because you still have 20, 30 or 40 years for the market to go back up.
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Fiber and railroads don't depreciate after 3 years of use like AI chips. Fiber and railroads don't need tens of billions of dollars in continuing yearly maintenance expenses to keep them from going stale.
The shorter useful life implies less risk though, since therefore the projections don’t have to play out for very long.
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The "3 years" figure has been repeated endlessly and yet the same H100s are making today roughly what they did in Jan 2024...
How long does a train track last? Does a fiber optic cable last? Both are greater than 30 years, both will persist (relatively well) without use, and the benefits of scrapping or removing them are minimal. This allowed future companies to take advantage of them. Even if GPUs running at high load last five years, if the data center they are in goes bankrupt (because the AI bubble bursts), it’s likely they’ll be stripp…
Same here - the main value is in dominating AI or something like that, not in the stack of hardware.
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You can just not have investments, which is more common than you think. Being young, lots of people I know don't even have enough of a cushion to invest, and others want to avoid all risk (especially in the current market) and park their money in a high-interest savings account. Of course, this doesn't insulate you from second- or third-order effects, but it does remove the possibility of your money being immediately…
If you work, you inevitably have some investments occurring. But every working adult is invested in the stock market. If you are young, impact is less scary because you still have 20, 30 or 40 years for the market to go back up.
Are you aware of the existence of other countries which do not operate like the US? (no mandatory pension fund, etc.)
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South Korea had an extremely large population of retail investors investing in options and leveraged ETFs, to the point that 3% of the adult population has now been margin-called. That setup isnt true for the US, not even close.
Are you sure? What is the 401(k) exposure to "AI" related stocks and broader market shocks?
All of this is kind of beside the point though, because the issue was leverage not exposure. In south korea ppl were forced to sell at the low point of the market due to margin calls. For a retirement account, you can just choose to take a disbursement next month or next year (assuming youve managed personal cash flow with sequence of returns risk in mind).
Genuine question: these companies had double-digit billions of free cash flow per quarter, about $0.3T a year aggregate, before the AI boom started and they began splurging on CapEx; is the $1.65T number that bad in that context? Let's assume the extreme worst case scenario where the bubble pops so comprehensively that the entire AI business is written off, without any change to the debt owed, and these companies ret…
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you can 100% and totally be immune to it
Which type of person is immune to it and where do they live?
the rest of us will, though. I for one am looking forward to cheaper graphics cards, which I'll use to play video games after givin out handies behind the wendys