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The Wall St vs Silicon Valley showdown that’s setting up here looks like it will be quite epic. If last week was any preview, get your popcorn ready.
As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down, it does feel like there are a lot more people thinking this is inning 9 of the LLM story than there are people thinking it's inning 3. Which makes it tempting to believe it's probably closer to inning 3.
Can you convert that analogy to European?
As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down, it does feel like there are a lot more people thinking this is inning 9 of the LLM story than there are people thinking it's inning 3. Which makes it tempting to believe it's probably closer to inning 3.
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The internet remains the biggest singular development of my entire life. The most valuable companies in the world are internet companies. Journalists have been eager to call AI "over" since 2022, and yet: - Models just got good at writing code this year - Models just got good at editing images last year - Models just got good at cinematic video this year This hasn't even played out. It hasn't even started. Why on ear…
People enjoy the narrative that AI is doomed. I am in the same mindset as you. I cannot see compute demand changing anytime soon.
If any one of these happens, or two, or all three, then the loans for trillions will become worthless while the use of AI can explode. The relationship between cost and ai intelligence output need not be linear over time, which is absolutely what the people financing are assuming.
Personally, I think linear over 5 years is about right, but no longer than that.
Hopefully the general public doesn’t get stuck with the ‘too big to fail’ bill .. again :(
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People enjoy the narrative that AI is doomed. I am in the same mindset as you. I cannot see compute demand changing anytime soon.
This is a straw man position. Who is saying AI is doomed? There were previous winters but the technology kept improving. What people are doubting is all the current hype around it. Stuff like AGI and the singularity being right around the corner with fully automated societies and robots dong all your chores for you. Rather than it being presented as productivity tool for enhancing human labor and activity, it's prese…
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Not every crash is due to a black-swan event. Many crashes are due to causes with predictable reasons, but unpredictable timing.
You have any examples? Because all of the biggest and most famous crashes were events that only a very small minority of people ever saw coming. Tulips, 1929, Dotcom, Great Recession, 2010's Flash Crash - none of these were in the public discussion before they happened.
That's why timing the crash is hard. The market has to agree with you but also at the right time
As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down, it does feel like there are a lot more people thinking this is inning 9 of the LLM story than there are people thinking it's inning 3. Which makes it tempting to believe it's probably closer to inning 3.
> As a bystander directly immune to the fortunes of AI going up or down Sorry to break it to you but you are neither immune nor a bystander to the fortunes of AI going down. You are part of it all whether you like it or not.