Live data from Hacker News

The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

mcgill.ca

51–60 of 191 posts

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#51
post #15

Replication crisis. More than half of all psychology studies are not reproducible. I'm at the point honestly, where I don't even consider psychology to be a science anymore.

If you ever took psych 101, it was immediately obvious it's mostly horse shit. Made up nonsense theory, with studies that have few participants and are done by people who don't know math.

But the answer to bad science is good science.

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#52
I mean, we all remember the cases where it was true, but do you really think most people think they are good at computer programming? Or speaking Russian? Or playing the harp? Or gardening? In the vast majority of cases, people who are not skilled at something, know that they are not. There are, sure, a few people who are overconfident, but the D-K effect as generally used in conversation was always pretty obviously untrue.

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#53
post #27
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that the original formulation was "most people" are unaware of being unskilled, but by now the name is used to mean "some group of people" is unaware of being unskilled. In that sense the article confirms that “a small number are", 5-6%, and therefore the effect exists in the colloquial sense but not in the scientific sense. Mentioning the Dunning-Krueger effect incorrectly is wonderfully meta...

I've seen at least 3 different ideas on this topic: - people not skilled in a thing are bad at estimating their skills - people are generally bad at estimating their skills - people skilled in a particular areas often feel they are intellectually fit in other areas Out of these three I feel like there's some truth in it, at least anecdotally.

for the last one, that's the whole story of Socrates being the wisest man because unlike others he knew the bounds of his knowledge:

"I seem, then, in just this little thing to be wiser than this man at any rate, that what I do not know I do not think I know either."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_that_I_know_nothing

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#54

Very hard to understand the meat behind all the fluff of the article, especially as the simulation code is not available, and as the presented simulated and original graphs are effectively the same (I don't see a disagreement). It's clear that the perceived curve will be differently sloped, as no one will evaluate themselves as the topmost or the bottommost percentiles, so the edges will be biased. And if in both cas…

It's annoying they didn't plot the new and old "perceived" curves on the same figure, but if you pay attention to the y-axis, there is a very big difference. In the old plot, the bottom quartile has about a 50 percentage point margin between actual and perceived performance while the new one is 30 percentage points, which is a 50% difference between the old and new curve. The second quartile has 3x more margin in the…

So what does that change? If there's no error bars on the graphs you can't discuss significant differences easily. And if they do differ, plotting differences will yield the U shape curve.

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#55
The key claim: "Random data actually mimics the effect really well."

This makes some sense. If people are asked to guess a number between 1 and 6 and then roll a die, the people who roll low are more likely to overestimate and the people who roll high are more likely to underestimate. But the key is precisely how well random data mimics the effect.

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#56
post #7

Even if it isn’t true, it’s got the feeling of truthiness (1). I don’t expect it to ever go out of the public consciousness. Like other things that were never real like Stockholm Syndrome I suspect it’s just stuck in the zeitgeist now. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truthiness

Power poses, imposter syndrome, Stanford prison experiment, marshmallow test...

It seems like the overlap between "real psychological effect" and "subtle enough that it requires research to discover" is vanishingly small. I guess that's not really surprising.

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#57
Hm... I vaguely remember a different article debunking the Dunning-Kruger. Basically the conclusion was that the data from the experiment shows that people's estimations of their results are all over the place, with people scoring high being actually slightly (but only slightly) more confident that they did well.

UPD: probably this one https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-k...

The article in the post is older though

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#58
post #27
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that the original formulation was "most people" are unaware of being unskilled, but by now the name is used to mean "some group of people" is unaware of being unskilled. In that sense the article confirms that “a small number are", 5-6%, and therefore the effect exists in the colloquial sense but not in the scientific sense. Mentioning the Dunning-Krueger effect incorrectly is wonderfully meta...

I've seen at least 3 different ideas on this topic: - people not skilled in a thing are bad at estimating their skills - people are generally bad at estimating their skills - people skilled in a particular areas often feel they are intellectually fit in other areas Out of these three I feel like there's some truth in it, at least anecdotally.

There's also the idea on the other side of the coin - whereby experts on a topic underestimate how much they know about it compared to the average person.

And of course there's a relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2501/

Re: The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

#59
post #27
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that the original formulation was "most people" are unaware of being unskilled, but by now the name is used to mean "some group of people" is unaware of being unskilled. In that sense the article confirms that “a small number are", 5-6%, and therefore the effect exists in the colloquial sense but not in the scientific sense. Mentioning the Dunning-Krueger effect incorrectly is wonderfully meta...

I've seen at least 3 different ideas on this topic: - people not skilled in a thing are bad at estimating their skills - people are generally bad at estimating their skills - people skilled in a particular areas often feel they are intellectually fit in other areas Out of these three I feel like there's some truth in it, at least anecdotally.

What is “it”, of those 3? The last one?
Post reply on HN