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The Future, Made in China

newyorker.com

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Re: The Future, Made in China

#81

Post by AnimalMuppet »

verdverm wrote: post #60
xXSLAYERXx wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, let us not forget The Trail of Tears which happened two hundred years ago. > China increasingly says to autocrats, Would you like to stay in power? I can help you with that. > This is one of the safest places in the world, if you’re not a dissident > In March, authorities abruptly barred the two founders of an A.I. startup called Manus from leaving the country. Did you even read the article?

> Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that". https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

True, that's the site standards.

I notice that you didn't answer any of his actual points, though...

Re: The Future, Made in China

#82

Post by AnimalMuppet »

godwinson__4-8 wrote: post #50
Hasz wrote: post #23

> Common sense says countries rise and fall in cycles Oh common sense. If you believe all countries are autocracies, maybe. But to examine the trajectory of the US on a "Chinese timescale", the US rejected autocratic rule, built a system that decentralizes power, uses ambition to check ambition, and provides for frequent, peaceful transfer of power. To an autocratic Chinese bureaucrat, this is all wasteful shortsight…

"A republic, if you can keep it". The "the trajectory of the US on a 'Chinese timescale'" barely even registers. While the CCP might not be that old, China considers itself an ancient society with a level of historical coherence that makes the United States rather insignificant as a lesson in political history. You've offered a hugely reductive and rosy view of American history. Democracy is easy until it gets hard.…

[dead]

Re: The Future, Made in China

#83

Post by scottLobster »

Gud wrote: post #70
scottLobster wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus, China's growth to this day is built on the back of foreign, primarily American, consumption. If they ever beat us too badly, they go down with us. They'd need to find alternate consumer markets to alleviate this, and what are their options? Domestic is out, China hasn't managed to create a domestic consumer market with their current demographics, which are only getting worse as their baby bust deepens. Europe?…

Why must the consumption be exported? Why can't they build for themselves?

Because that would lead to mass unemployment and deindustrialization, as China lacks the wealth among the lower classes and the demographics to consume everything that it produces.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#84

Post by verdverm »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #81
verdverm wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that". https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

True, that's the site standards. I notice that you didn't answer any of his actual points, though...

It's best not to go back and forth with someone like that. They did not answer my only question in their pass-by commentary, so I feel no need to respond to the quotes they pulled from the article (not their points), on top of the better path of disengaging after rule breaking.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#85

Post by derriz »

recursivedoubts wrote: post #71
derriz wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries don’t have infinite supplies of labor and capital. The more of an economy dedicated to making cheap plastic toys or stitching tshirts, the less economic resources available for inventing the next iPhone. The very reason China is becoming more competitive in higher value-added economic activities is because China itself has moved away from low value economic activities - like manufacturing cheap clothing - t…

yeah, i'm familiar with the just so stories told to us by economists, but the reality is that by moving the entire supply chain to asia there are huge knock on effects on our own ability to innovate and produce wealth the us has papered over it w/credit (no coincidence that the credit card came out right when productive capacity was being shifted to asia) but eventually every country sits down to a banquet of consequ…

What economic "just so" stories have I presented? You accept that economic capacity is not infinite, right? Then you need to tell me from which sector would you reallocate workers to doing the things you listed: producing cheap plastic toys, low-value clothing, inexpensive electronics, TVs, computer assembly, low-value semi-conductors and CPU production.

Could you be more specific about the knock on effects of not making cheap plastic toys, etc. domestically? The US is still the clear global leader in technical innovation in nearly all sectors (and I'm not an American).

Re: The Future, Made in China

#86

Post by deepfriedchokes »

graemep wrote: post #59
Avicebron wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if it was a naive new world order belief, blinding greed, racism, plain stupidity or a mixture of all of that. But the end result was selling the American people down the river..

There was a belief in "the end of history": that any economy that developed would inevitably become a liberal free market democracy. I think this has left its mark. A lot of people do not seem to be able understand that this is not true. Even if they accept it intellectually its such a fundamental assumption that its still influential. I think there was, and is, an element of racism. It still persists in that a lot o…

I think the “end of history” idea was sold to the public in the same way and for the same reasons they were sold trickle down economics.

Totally agree on the racism. I do hope the West doesn’t learn that lesson the hard way.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#87

Post by Gud »

scottLobster wrote: post #83
Gud wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why must the consumption be exported? Why can't they build for themselves?

Because that would lead to mass unemployment and deindustrialization, as China lacks the wealth among the lower classes and the demographics to consume everything that it produces.

Wealth is made.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#88

Post by scottLobster »

Gud wrote: post #87
scottLobster wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because that would lead to mass unemployment and deindustrialization, as China lacks the wealth among the lower classes and the demographics to consume everything that it produces.

Wealth is made.

Yes, in China's case through mass exports. What you're suggesting is North Korean Juche. Turning China into a larger North Korea will not increase its prosperity.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#89

Post by Gud »

scottLobster wrote: post #88
Gud wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealth is made.

Yes, in China's case through mass exports. What you're suggesting is North Korean Juche. Turning China into a larger North Korea will not increase its prosperity.

Yes, currently.

But you have made no argument for why that must continue, only presented that is the status quo.

China is huge and I am simply wondering, why does it need to export? Except for oil, it has pretty much any resource needed to sustain a high technology economy.

Please, there are no similarities between North Korea and China.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#90

Post by scottLobster »

Gud wrote: post #89
scottLobster wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in China's case through mass exports. What you're suggesting is North Korean Juche. Turning China into a larger North Korea will not increase its prosperity.

Yes, currently. But you have made no argument for why that must continue, only presented that is the status quo. China is huge and I am simply wondering, why does it need to export? Except for oil, it has pretty much any resource needed to sustain a high technology economy. Please, there are no similarities between North Korea and China.

The argument is self-evident. Businesses need sales to make money. By refusing to allow them to export, you artificially limit the sales they are able to make. Businesses with fewer sales make less money, businesses that make less money employ fewer people. People without jobs tend to have problems securing food, water, and shelter, and start to get angry enough to topple governments.

Sometimes they win, sometimes the government just kills all the angry people, and you end up like North Korea or Russia under Stalin (or China under Mao).

There's also the fact that China is an aging population and is structurally incapable of having enough children to create a self-sufficient consumer economy, unless they suddenly develope a love of immigrants.

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