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The Future, Made in China

newyorker.com

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Re: The Future, Made in China

#31

Post by kibwen »

Hasz wrote: post #23

> Common sense says countries rise and fall in cycles Oh common sense. If you believe all countries are autocracies, maybe. But to examine the trajectory of the US on a "Chinese timescale", the US rejected autocratic rule, built a system that decentralizes power, uses ambition to check ambition, and provides for frequent, peaceful transfer of power. To an autocratic Chinese bureaucrat, this is all wasteful shortsight…

The belief that autocracies will inevitably fall (or perhaps that "the arc of history bends towards justice") is hopelessly naive. Technology is a force multiplier with the power to entrench autocracy, forever.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#32

Post by verdverm »

Qworg wrote: post #29
WhyComboNadir wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you said about "next fiscal quarter" is exactly right, and goes along with us (in the US) only thinking politically in 4 year cycles... which means on average we are thinking only 2 years ahead. China is the master of the long-game. It's shortest cycles are 5 year tactical plans. Their strategic plans go far beyond. I don't know what the solution is in the US (and West in general) to be able to think 25+ years a…

This was the role of those "unelected bureaucrats" in the US that some folks decry. It is far shorter than a fiscal quarter - the next market open is all that matters.

with the president trying to sell early access to his market moving "truths"

Re: The Future, Made in China

#34

Post by throw-the-towel »

kibwen wrote: post #26
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mass media loves to talk about ANYTHING besides the ongoing decay of the west, largely facilitated by it's own ineptitude at the game it designed. We're losing because we outsourced everything for short term gains and have let supercorps run completely without oversight, buying each other left and right, until every "American" product left is owned by one of four conglomorates, and none of them know what they act…

Surely you realize that this article is, in fact, about the ongoing decay of the West.

It's not. It's about what's going well in China, not what went wrong in the West.

Re: The Future, Made in China

#35

Post by daliusd »

kibwen wrote: post #31
Hasz wrote: post #23

> Common sense says countries rise and fall in cycles Oh common sense. If you believe all countries are autocracies, maybe. But to examine the trajectory of the US on a "Chinese timescale", the US rejected autocratic rule, built a system that decentralizes power, uses ambition to check ambition, and provides for frequent, peaceful transfer of power. To an autocratic Chinese bureaucrat, this is all wasteful shortsight…

The belief that autocracies will inevitably fall (or perhaps that "the arc of history bends towards justice") is hopelessly naive. Technology is a force multiplier with the power to entrench autocracy, forever.

Still you will not be able to give any existing example that lasted longer than 100 years. There are examples like Sayfawa dynasty which is counter-example to your claim about technology being multiplier

Re: The Future, Made in China

#36

Post by pphysch »

Hasz wrote: post #23

> Common sense says countries rise and fall in cycles Oh common sense. If you believe all countries are autocracies, maybe. But to examine the trajectory of the US on a "Chinese timescale", the US rejected autocratic rule, built a system that decentralizes power, uses ambition to check ambition, and provides for frequent, peaceful transfer of power. To an autocratic Chinese bureaucrat, this is all wasteful shortsight…

This comment might hold water in 2006 or 2016 but it rings hollow in 2026. Who elected/congressionally-approved Jared Kushner to run US foreign policy?

Re: The Future, Made in China

#37

Post by throw-the-towel »

tw04 wrote: post #10
WhyComboNadir wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you said about "next fiscal quarter" is exactly right, and goes along with us (in the US) only thinking politically in 4 year cycles... which means on average we are thinking only 2 years ahead. China is the master of the long-game. It's shortest cycles are 5 year tactical plans. Their strategic plans go far beyond. I don't know what the solution is in the US (and West in general) to be able to think 25+ years a…

> I don't know what the solution is in the US (and West in general) to be able to think 25+ years ahead, as no material incentive would do the job Eliminate share buybacks. Raise the top tax bracket to 95% on earnings over $10m. Executive shares cannot be exercised until retirement if you really want to get aggressive. The nuclear option would be stocks cannot be used as collateral for loans, it would shore up 90% of…

How would raising the taxes force people to think 25 years ahead?

Re: The Future, Made in China

#38

Post by jandrewrogers »

feverzsj wrote: post #14

Export-oriented economy is never sustainable, especially when it's built upon low human rights.

The percentage of China's GDP that is dependent on foreign demand (15.7%) is the second lowest among major economies. The only major economy that is lower is the US at 9.0%, which is an extremely outlier.[0]

By many OECD economic metrics[1] around trade dependence, the US and China consistently rank as the least trade dependent. This reflects the scale of the countries, diversity of the economies, and an intentional strategy of minimizing trade dependence for GDP growth.

This last point is central to geopolitical leverage. Even if you treat the EU27 as a single trade entity, which operates at similar scales, there is little evidence of a coherent strategy to become functionally self-sufficient. A lot of geopolitical relevance is downstream of this.

[0] https://x.com/JonathonPSine/status/2082502536624287890

[1] https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/inter-country-input-ou...

Re: The Future, Made in China

#39

Post by verdverm »

altmanaltman wrote: post #9
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Long-winded, as anyone familiar with the New Yorker would expect. But still very good. Whatever its other weaknesses, China has the enormous advantage that the people really in power are focused on raising China to global dominance. Vs. those really in power in America are, at best, worried about their personal status and wealth at the end of the next fiscal quarter.

China had an enermous corruption problem, what are you talking about? Xi has been on an anti-corruption campagin since 2012 and they are just getting rid of top leaders like just last month. And I am sure his "anti-corruption" campaign is totally not ignoring some aspects. While Trump might be an outlier in how obvious the grift is, that doesn't make China suddenly the good guys who only care about their country or t…

1995 was a different leader in a different time. Let us not forget at one point, America forced walked people on The Trail of Tears. American Amnesia is very potent and powerful, we easily forget about last week, year, century

When did we go from bad guy to good guy?

Re: The Future, Made in China

#40

Post by scottLobster »

Hasz wrote: post #23

> Common sense says countries rise and fall in cycles Oh common sense. If you believe all countries are autocracies, maybe. But to examine the trajectory of the US on a "Chinese timescale", the US rejected autocratic rule, built a system that decentralizes power, uses ambition to check ambition, and provides for frequent, peaceful transfer of power. To an autocratic Chinese bureaucrat, this is all wasteful shortsight…

Plus, China's growth to this day is built on the back of foreign, primarily American, consumption. If they ever beat us too badly, they go down with us.

They'd need to find alternate consumer markets to alleviate this, and what are their options? Domestic is out, China hasn't managed to create a domestic consumer market with their current demographics, which are only getting worse as their baby bust deepens.

Europe? Similar demographic issues, simply not enough consumption to replace the US and greater economic protectionism.

The 3rd world? Maybe, but first you have to develop it, and even if you could manage that they have nationalist impulses of their own. You think India is going to willingly offshore their industry to China on the scale of the US?

The American system for all its many flaws is extremely dynamic. Trump and his policies are mostly bad adaptations, but they are attempts at adaptation, and the attempts aren't going to stop. The US has changed radically in the last 10 years; there's no reason it can't change just as radically in the next 10.

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