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All comments here are written as if Situational Awareness blew up, but it seems like it didn't and is up 80% YTD https://nitter.net/tbpn/status/2083226453509030285 All the stuff that it was forced to sell to Citadel is also up ~10%-30% since the sale
The public book went to 0 and LPs lost everything. The 80% number is a result of blending the Anthropic stake (+620% YTD, 25% of NAV) and the public book (-100%, 75% of NAV) = +80% YTD
This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. I don't understand how the investors didn't realize this was going to blow up. Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage, at least when you're trading paper. When something is inevitable and there is a large enough position, this makes adversarial attacks likely. Every small drop causes an amplified amount…
Definitely not true, looking at their last 13f (filed in may 2026) their top3 holdings were BE, SNDK and CRWV which had 1y returns of 1,500%, 2,000% and 500% at the time of the filing. They accounted together for 15% of the fund (plus an unknown amount of exposure through options). These tickers show up in the 2 and 3 previous filings so they had exposure to some of that run up, and looking at the filings further back they had some very concentrated exposure to INTC in a half year period where the stock went up about 200%
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. >Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage This is simply untrue. Just because the path to doing so is much more clear in hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't possible. Sandisk is still up 110.82% in the last 6 months, and that's after a drawdown that's now approaching 50% from peak. Over the last year, they'r…
The skill in the stock market, and the value of any kind of investment fund, is producing good returns over an actual long-term period. YOLO-ing once before imploding in one of the biggest bull markets ever can be done by any gambling degenerate out there.
This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. I don't understand how the investors didn't realize this was going to blow up. Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage, at least when you're trading paper. When something is inevitable and there is a large enough position, this makes adversarial attacks likely. Every small drop causes an amplified amount…
>This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. >Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage This is simply untrue. Just because the path to doing so is much more clear in hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't possible. Sandisk is still up 110.82% in the last 6 months, and that's after a drawdown that's now approaching 50% from peak. Over the last year, they'r…
This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. I don't understand how the investors didn't realize this was going to blow up. Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage, at least when you're trading paper. When something is inevitable and there is a large enough position, this makes adversarial attacks likely. Every small drop causes an amplified amount…
>Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage, at least when you're trading paper. Definitely not true, looking at their last 13f (filed in may 2026) their top3 holdings were BE, SNDK and CRWV which had 1y returns of 1,500%, 2,000% and 500% at the time of the filing. They accounted together for 15% of the fund (plus an unknown amount of exposure through options). These tickers show up…
This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. I don't understand how the investors didn't realize this was going to blow up. Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage, at least when you're trading paper. When something is inevitable and there is a large enough position, this makes adversarial attacks likely. Every small drop causes an amplified amount…
The whole country of South Korea is long SK Hynix and Samsung, with insane level of leverage. That won’t be a happy ending. People talk about past bubbles as if it was a good thing long term, but that will be millions of people losing their savings, homes, decades of austerity for countries to recover
How does it actually work under the hood?
I think the collapse of SA is very simple (as long as I'm not wrong about it of course hehe). SA weren't geniuses, they weren't sophisticated. They just did the same thing everyone else did, all in on semi-conductor, AI and memory positions. They got great returns because 1) everyone got great returns and 2) they were leveraged through their ears. In fact, not only they weren't geniuses, they were pretty bad at risk…
They were the alpha. Leopold called the boom in 2025 and returned 200% in 2025. He unfortunately got caught with his pants down.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. >Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage This is simply untrue. Just because the path to doing so is much more clear in hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't possible. Sandisk is still up 110.82% in the last 6 months, and that's after a drawdown that's now approaching 50% from peak. Over the last year, they'r…
Uhhh.. you think this isn't driven by options trading? Which is, by definition, leverage.
What I said was strictly a refutation of the assertion that it's only possible to achieve a 47% return in 6 months or 400%+ return in ~2 years with leverage. That's a demonstrably false assertion.
If you bought Sandisk, $SNDK, not options but the actual underlying equity, with no margin, just fully purchased the position with cash, you're up 110% if you bought six months ago (down from over 200%, but 110% in 6 months is still enormous), and you're up over 2700% if you bought a year ago.
Stopped writing the comment, went and clicked the logo, yup a personalized AI reporting service.