11–20 of 61 posts
All the stuff that it was forced to sell to Citadel is also up ~10%-30% since the sale
I think the collapse of SA is very simple (as long as I'm not wrong about it of course hehe). SA weren't geniuses, they weren't sophisticated. They just did the same thing everyone else did, all in on semi-conductor, AI and memory positions. They got great returns because 1) everyone got great returns and 2) they were leveraged through their ears. In fact, not only they weren't geniuses, they were pretty bad at risk…
They were the alpha. Leopold called the boom in 2025 and returned 200% in 2025. He unfortunately got caught with his pants down.
I think the collapse of SA is very simple (as long as I'm not wrong about it of course hehe). SA weren't geniuses, they weren't sophisticated. They just did the same thing everyone else did, all in on semi-conductor, AI and memory positions. They got great returns because 1) everyone got great returns and 2) they were leveraged through their ears. In fact, not only they weren't geniuses, they were pretty bad at risk…
They were the alpha. Leopold called the boom in 2025 and returned 200% in 2025. He unfortunately got caught with his pants down.
This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. I don't understand how the investors didn't realize this was going to blow up. Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage, at least when you're trading paper. When something is inevitable and there is a large enough position, this makes adversarial attacks likely. Every small drop causes an amplified amount…
>This fund returned 47% in its first 6m and over 400% prior to the downturn. >Returns like that are not asymmetrical and can only be produced with leverage This is simply untrue. Just because the path to doing so is much more clear in hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't possible. Sandisk is still up 110.82% in the last 6 months, and that's after a drawdown that's now approaching 50% from peak. Over the last year, they'r…
All comments here are written as if Situational Awareness blew up, but it seems like it didn't and is up 80% YTD https://nitter.net/tbpn/status/2083226453509030285 All the stuff that it was forced to sell to Citadel is also up ~10%-30% since the sale
"The forces that destroyed SA were also what generated its 4×+ return"...yes, that is what levrage means? And it goes both ways. The interesting part what this article states: SA was essentialy a thematic ETF without any hedging to buffer downside, and got margin called.
"Impending"? Has anyone looked at the Business section, lately?
All comments here are written as if Situational Awareness blew up, but it seems like it didn't and is up 80% YTD https://nitter.net/tbpn/status/2083226453509030285 All the stuff that it was forced to sell to Citadel is also up ~10%-30% since the sale
and Citidel took it all at a multiple billion dollar discount to the prior close
I think the collapse of SA is very simple (as long as I'm not wrong about it of course hehe). SA weren't geniuses, they weren't sophisticated. They just did the same thing everyone else did, all in on semi-conductor, AI and memory positions. They got great returns because 1) everyone got great returns and 2) they were leveraged through their ears. In fact, not only they weren't geniuses, they were pretty bad at risk…
They were the alpha. Leopold called the boom in 2025 and returned 200% in 2025. He unfortunately got caught with his pants down.