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US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

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Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#181

Post by anonymars »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #147
anonymars wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you perhaps mixing up empathy and sympathy?

No, it's the idea of "getting in their minds" and understanding what their perspective must be from the inside that I object to. It's not the right time for that. If a bully starts punching the guy who lives one house north of me, I need you to help get the bully off of him, not start theorizing about why bullies act this way and why people might support them.

Who is the singular bully in this analogy? It seems to me the choice is between "civil war" and "influencing people to vote differently" -- the latter of which requires understanding them (for example, the common theme seems to be screaming "change, any change")

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#182

Post by scoofy »

mono442 wrote: post #162
inigyou wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How will the fed do that? What will the side effects be? Why didn't it do that at the latest FOMC?

Qe, yield curve control or possibly other market operations. There won't be any real consequences, it's just an asset swap. They buy bonds and in turn create new interbank reserves.

QE is effective when inflation is low or negative. It creates a larger money supply. Inflation is already high.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#183

Post by Sabinus »

iamnothere wrote: post #177
estearum wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well thanks for confirming you're just making shit up from whole cloth. The Dems' 2024 report literally argues the opposite, over and over. It argues that Democrats did not engage in enough negative campaigning against Trump. > LESSONS FROM THE STATE CAMPAIGNS 1. Going Negative Works (Especially if Voters Know You). > The Trump campaign and supportive Super PACs went full throttle against Vice President Harris, but t…

Ah, I had read a source that characterized it this way, but the truth is more complicated. The report itself said this, but it reflected only the view of the author; the notes from Dem leadership on the report disputed this point in particular and said there was no evidence for it. Apparently they disagreed with the report’s conclusions enough to suppress the release for a while. I misremembered this and a quick sear…

>But I don’t really care who wins anyway, I’m not sure why I’m even engaging here.

The democrats are so far from the 2008 version that you don't care if they lose? That Trump's activities are as bad as Biden's?

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#184

Post by iamnothere »

Sabinus wrote: post #183
iamnothere wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, I had read a source that characterized it this way, but the truth is more complicated. The report itself said this, but it reflected only the view of the author; the notes from Dem leadership on the report disputed this point in particular and said there was no evidence for it. Apparently they disagreed with the report’s conclusions enough to suppress the release for a while. I misremembered this and a quick sear…

>But I don’t really care who wins anyway, I’m not sure why I’m even engaging here. The democrats are so far from the 2008 version that you don't care if they lose? That Trump's activities are as bad as Biden's?

As I said earlier, Republicans are doing a pretty good job of dismantling the empire, and I care about that more than whatever either party is offering domestically (not much). So if they win, so be it.

2008 Dems had a large “liberaltarian” presence, which isn’t perfectly aligned with my views, but it was close enough that I was often in favor of their policies. Current Dems just want the war machine to focus more on Russia while sticking it to red states at home.

Antiwar sentiment in the party died after the entry of “CIA Democrats” like Spanberger, who now have outsized influence within the party. I don’t see much good coming out of a Dem victory until they are expelled.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#185

Post by don_esteban »

jordanb wrote: post #180
don_esteban wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. US actually bought Yen with Euros, not with dollars. The time will tell whether that will be a good trade for them. 2. What do you mean by 'No it would not'? I am not sure what are you trying to say. If Japan sells US bonds (instead of, as usual, buying), the aggregate demand for US bonds will go down, raising the yield. It seems that that is what the US is trying to prevent.

Either they spent euro reserves or bought euros with dollars so that's kinda irrelevant. This thread kicked off with an incorrect belief that Japan had leverage over the US with some threat to spend reserves. That leverage doesn't really exist because it can not have any more effect on the American fiscal position than the one the Treasury just took. In fact the Treasury is helping Japan maintain a stronger fiscal po…

We are going in circles.

Anybody with large enough holding of US treasuries has leverage over the US: Large selling of those treasures will raise the yield on them, which is the last thing the US in its current situation needs.

Of course, such selling will crash the treasuries, incurring huge losses to the seller. Still, hoping/pretending there is no leverage is closing your eyes to the reality.

Reciprocally, US has capability to screw over such large holders by inflating itself out of debt, leaving them holding worthless paper/bits.

That's why China has been carefully riding itself out of treasuries for years.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#186

Post by don_esteban »

jordanb wrote: post #180
don_esteban wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. US actually bought Yen with Euros, not with dollars. The time will tell whether that will be a good trade for them. 2. What do you mean by 'No it would not'? I am not sure what are you trying to say. If Japan sells US bonds (instead of, as usual, buying), the aggregate demand for US bonds will go down, raising the yield. It seems that that is what the US is trying to prevent.

Either they spent euro reserves or bought euros with dollars so that's kinda irrelevant. This thread kicked off with an incorrect belief that Japan had leverage over the US with some threat to spend reserves. That leverage doesn't really exist because it can not have any more effect on the American fiscal position than the one the Treasury just took. In fact the Treasury is helping Japan maintain a stronger fiscal po…

Hm, maybe this is your misunderstanding:

- the fiscal position (the amount of debt the US owes) does not change by Japan selling the US treasures to other (non US) party

- but the party that bought the treasures from Japan will not be buying them from US, hence diminishing the demand for them, therefore raising the yield

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#187

Post by mono442 »

scoofy wrote: post #182
mono442 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Qe, yield curve control or possibly other market operations. There won't be any real consequences, it's just an asset swap. They buy bonds and in turn create new interbank reserves.

QE is effective when inflation is low or negative. It creates a larger money supply. Inflation is already high.

It doesn't change the M1 which is relevant for inflation.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#188

Post by mono442 »

inigyou wrote: post #176
mono442 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Qe, yield curve control or possibly other market operations. There won't be any real consequences, it's just an asset swap. They buy bonds and in turn create new interbank reserves.

If there are no bad consequences, why haven't they done it yet?

I'm not sure. Probably because they want to maintain the appearance of central bank independence.

The yields aren't even that high. They were much higher in the past.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#189

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

anonymars wrote: post #181
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's the idea of "getting in their minds" and understanding what their perspective must be from the inside that I object to. It's not the right time for that. If a bully starts punching the guy who lives one house north of me, I need you to help get the bully off of him, not start theorizing about why bullies act this way and why people might support them.

Who is the singular bully in this analogy? It seems to me the choice is between "civil war" and "influencing people to vote differently" -- the latter of which requires understanding them (for example, the common theme seems to be screaming "change, any change")

It seems to you incorrectly. The President of the United States is going to declare a civil war when he loses the 2028 election, perhaps as soon when his party loses the 2026 election. There's no choice we have in that, only in how we respond.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#190

Post by inigyou »

mono442 wrote: post #187
scoofy wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

QE is effective when inflation is low or negative. It creates a larger money supply. Inflation is already high.

It doesn't change the M1 which is relevant for inflation.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49147536
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