Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

ft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 218 posts

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#161

Post by marcosdumay »

inigyou wrote: post #146
marcosdumay wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that Japan experienced the same kind of phenomenon that is unwinding in the US right now. As long as your markets and tax policy are vicious enough that lots of normal people can barely make ends meet, you can print as much money as you want and it won't show up on the CPI. Instead, if you funnel that money to rich people, it will show entirely as growth in the price of investment instruments. At…

Is that unwinding in the US right now or is it winding up?

To the point that inflation is growing, it's unwinding. It's not clear if it will actually stop of if people will get the process running again.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#162

Post by mono442 »

inigyou wrote: post #160
mono442 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the fed can bring the bond yields down, it's not really a problem

How will the fed do that? What will the side effects be? Why didn't it do that at the latest FOMC?

Qe, yield curve control or possibly other market operations. There won't be any real consequences, it's just an asset swap. They buy bonds and in turn create new interbank reserves.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#163

Post by kilroy123 »

duxup wrote: post #154
renegade-otter wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's kind of ironic how Stephen Miran's strategy of "to hell with the rest of the world, we do what we want" keeps running into electric fences. They want to devalue and inflate the dollar, but the Horse in the Hospital keeps ruining the plan.

It’s all just a bunch of childish short term thinking. Granted this administration doesn’t care as long as they get theirs. They just blame anyone else as things come and go.

Yup, I call it a cartoonish view of the world.

I think so many in power now, including lots of people in tech, have bonkers, cartoonish views of the world that just don't map to the reality and complexities of the 21st century. Scary stuff.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#164

Post by mono442 »

timr wrote: post #58
heisenbit wrote: post #41

Propping up the yen may be more helpful for the US than if Japan hikes interest rates which is on the table (Google ’bring money home‘). The carry trade buying treasuries with debts incurred in yen has been a steady source for US funding. Eventually it will happen with collateral impact on treasury rates but this ‚supportive‘ move may just shift it past November.

Yes. Let’s not forget that the last time the BOJ hinted at rate normalization, it caused a global bond market freakout, a spike in Treasury rates, and a collapse in Asian stocks (the “BOJ Shock” of December 22). One can make a reasonable story that this led to the SVB collapse.

The svb collapsed because they bought a lot of long term bonds during zero interest rate policy. It was inevitable.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#165

Post by yongjik »

iamnothere wrote: post #123
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Understanding, absolutely. None of us are immune from propaganda, and most of us have at one time or another been swayed by selective arguments and echo chambers to behave poorly. I don’t like that you have empathy for people who are right this second steering the government in a project of performative cruelty against me. I think you should withhold your empathy until they’ve been stopped and appropriately punished…

Surely punishing the people will make them vote for us!

Increasing gas prices seems very well correlated with people not voting for the incumbent party, and I can't imagine these people not feeling they're being punished by the price, so ...

... yeah I'd say punishing the people can make them vote for us, or at least not vote for not-us, which is basically equivalent.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#166

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

iamnothere wrote: post #123
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Understanding, absolutely. None of us are immune from propaganda, and most of us have at one time or another been swayed by selective arguments and echo chambers to behave poorly. I don’t like that you have empathy for people who are right this second steering the government in a project of performative cruelty against me. I think you should withhold your empathy until they’ve been stopped and appropriately punished…

Surely punishing the people will make them vote for us!

I don't accept the idea that e.g. Greg Bovino should be allowed to have brownshirts murder people in my city as long as enough voters support him. I reject the legitimacy of any political system that can't or won't punish him for his crimes.

I do have a lot of faith in democracy, so I'm optimistic that most people can be persuaded to accept his punishment if the argument is presented well. I'm sure some number of people who called for him to murder people will pretend they were never on his side, and that'll frustrate me to no end, but such is life.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#167

Post by tencentshill »

adabyron wrote: post #62
Schiendelman wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold on there. The reason you mostly see sky is falling posts is that those get more engagement , both positive and negative. "Everything is fine" doesn't cause a reaction in a reader. This is inherent to social media. It's bad for us, too, because it eventually tricks our brain into thinking the sky is always falling, no matter how we try to talk ourselves out of it.

Curious what others think. In my small real offline world, it seems this has caused people to get worked up about the sky falling a few times and then quit paying any attention to the sky or boy crying wolf at all. Which means when events actually happen that will have a large negative impact on their life or their descendants, they just don't care. Which then results in another metaphor - boiling a frog.

If you're not an activist, you just have to ride it out and vote when you can. Trump made sure I'll never skip an election ever.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#168

Post by estearum »

iamnothere wrote: post #157
estearum wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All available evidence points toward my claim: Americans don't really agree on how they want the future to look. However, they do agree on how they don't want it to look. The rampant corruption, state brutality, and criminality of MAGA is unpopular across the board.

Two things can be true at the same time: Americans dislike the status quo, and they don’t support angry/negative Democratic politicians for President. See also: claims that Sanders was “too angry” (lmao), the “Dean scream” smear campaign, characterizing Clinton as a cackling witch, etc.

Yeah nah this is way too reductive. You'd need to share a much more thorough analysis than just "here are three candidates criticized for things that are arguably adjacent to angry/negative vibes"

For example, Harris ran on a positivity campaign and lost.

There are just way, way too many dimensions to modern politics to resolve into something like this – with the exception of the anti-MAGA sentiment which is widespread, highly salient, and highly motivating. Obviously that's fleeting and so in 16 years it will probably be wrong to say "anti-MAGA candidates always win, just look at 2028!"

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#169

Post by iamnothere »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #166
iamnothere wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely punishing the people will make them vote for us!

I don't accept the idea that e.g. Greg Bovino should be allowed to have brownshirts murder people in my city as long as enough voters support him. I reject the legitimacy of any political system that can't or won't punish him for his crimes. I do have a lot of faith in democracy, so I'm optimistic that most people can be persuaded to accept his punishment if the argument is presented well. I'm sure some number of peo…

There’s a difference between wanting to punish the officials responsible, and wanting to punish the people who elected them. In the context of the broader discussion it sounded like you were advocating for the latter, which isn’t a winning strategy. But even if you only mean the officials, punishment is a bad centerpiece of a campaign; it’s something that one should do quietly after you have already won.

(The exception is right wing politicians, who seem to be allowed to win elections while openly calling for punishment of their opponents. Call it a quirk of the US electorate, or a flaw in human nature, who knows. It is what it is.)

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#170

Post by [deleted] »

yongjik wrote: post #165
iamnothere wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely punishing the people will make them vote for us!

Increasing gas prices seems very well correlated with people not voting for the incumbent party, and I can't imagine these people not feeling they're being punished by the price, so ... ... yeah I'd say punishing the people can make them vote for us, or at least not vote for not-us, which is basically equivalent.

[deleted]
Post reply on HN