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US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

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Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#91

Post by jordanb »

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #84
jordanb wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be a dumb move. If Japan's treasury started selling a large amount of US debt, the Fed could buy it up and pay interest to itself. Japan would then have a whole bunch of non-interest-bearing US dollars and the Fed would have a lot of interest-bearing US bonds. Now it's true that Japan's treasury could then use those dollars to buy something else like stock in US companies but they could have done that all…

> Japan would then have a whole bunch of non-interest-bearing US dollars They would not be holding the dollars long enough for the interest to matter. Those would instantly be traded for JPY, weakening the dollar and strengthening the yen, because the goal is to influence the exchange rate.

But this is what the US Treasury is doing on Japan's behalf without requiring Japan to give up any bonds. If Japan wants a stronger Yen against the dollar why not make them spend their reserves to support it?

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#92

Post by spwa4 »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #72
jordanb wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be a dumb move. If Japan's treasury started selling a large amount of US debt, the Fed could buy it up and pay interest to itself. Japan would then have a whole bunch of non-interest-bearing US dollars and the Fed would have a lot of interest-bearing US bonds. Now it's true that Japan's treasury could then use those dollars to buy something else like stock in US companies but they could have done that all…

It's a big world. There are a lot of places to buy oil from. And the balance of payments is not that complicated with energy - like where do Middle East OPEC members reinvest their dollars? In world assets. Like Japanese companies. IMO, the far more impactful geopolitical conflict is still the war in Ukraine, between two countries with allies that actually have deep ties to the rest of the world, with casualty counts…

[dead]

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#93

Post by btown »

lazide wrote: post #86
estearum wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but this administration was essentially elected on the idea that they can be horrible people and do horrible things because they will not kick the can down the road, and biting the bullet on these problems is worth the litany of abuses of our nation and our allies. Turns out it's just the worst of both worlds. Higher debt, more foreign intervention, slower growth, higher inflation, and our upper echelons occupied…

Anyone who thought the admin was anything but conmen deserves what they get. The sad part is everyone else they’re going to take with them.

> deserves what they get

American voters exist in an environment of propaganda addiction, with every piece of their personal technology reinforcing and profiting from said addiction, that has never existed before. I have great empathy and understanding for those who are bombarded by voices that are actively manipulating them for engagement, and I believe this empathy is key to understanding if, and how, a landscape of echo chambers can nonetheless result in a sustainable and balanced future.

(edit: see below for my response about the limits of this)

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#94

Post by inigyou »

blitzar wrote: post #22
eigenspace wrote: post #5

Japan holds a huge amount of US treasuries, and I guess was considering a mass sell off to raise cash to defend the Yen. US treasury bond yields are already dangerously high for the US and Japan selling treasuries would push yields up even higher, and could trigger more panic selling from others. I guess this is Bessent's scheme to try and kick that can down the road.

> kick that can down the road With two left feet and a couple of swings and misses, the can isnt in much danger.

You think the US collapse is going to happen right now despite this action?

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#95

Post by actionfromafar »

inigyou wrote: post #56
Supermancho wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The USA government will enter a debt-interest spiral if Japan sells its bonds. Regardless if they sell all their bonds this second or not, the US spiral is a foregone conclusion.

If Japan sells all its bonds, it happens right now .

Yes, it has to wait until after November.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#96

Post by deadbabe »

hilariously wrote: post #30
deadbabe wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t have competition forever. At some point someone wins decisively, and then there is only the illusion of competition.

We already have anti-trust and other regulation to manage this problem, we simply need to use it. There's no end of competition, the world changes, companies bloat and make bad choices, smaller competitors can react and change faster - it's only in our corporate hegemony that we don't consider that a viable alternative.

Companies also learn from history, and with enough data, can make perfect decisions in real time. The end result, is you end up with “Final Companies”, where a market becomes so dominated an entrant cannot even start up, because it requires operating to even greater perfection just to stay in the game.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#97

Post by ProllyInfamous »

Too. Big. To. Fail.

I still have the tab (open from yesterday's /hn/) about Trickle Down Economics working as intended (which it obviously does, from a certain minority of the population's top-of-the-K-curve POV).

Honestly, this is a good strategic move for USA lifestyle status quo, given Japan does still hold a massive amount of US bonds / debt obligations (even though in the past decade it has been lessening its exposure to US debt instruments).

I believe 2026/2027 is the threshhold where USA interest (on our debt) is the top-line of our fiscal budget. #USA

----

This is not financial advice (I am a semi-retired datacenter ELECTRICIAN, as bluecollar as they come):

look at the top marketcaps now verse just a few years ago. Pre-Covid, a $2T$+ marketcap was a rare achievement (i.e. Saudi Aramco... which is sometimes not even Top 10 anymore!): now there are three companies that are solid $4T$+ marketcaps, sometimes flirting into $5T$ (a few days at a time).

Inflation is the only answer, from that same top-of-the-K POV. Gotta keep them assets 'tected, ya'll.

Or track gold. Artwork. Land. Anything Real, legally speaking (except soon/now: perhaps not SFH housing) #WhateverDawg

----

If you've been saving up for a house: right now you should really check out Michael Bordenaro's recent video on the topic of "Corporate Landlords shedding rental homes" [1] – I have no affiliation other than enjoying his almost-daily audio commentary – he is a former realtor (I went to college he sold houses) and his topics are extremely observant and varried.

Michael's self-shot walks helped inspire me to get in better shape (e.g. lose "dead parent" weight, lower BP, &c) and rejoin "the tanktop generation" (he is a bit younger than me, but I never grew up so...). |-30lbs|-12kg~|

Save until you can put down at least 20% (to avoid additional insurance fees), because in a-fifth of US states insurance is already going to cost more than property taxes (which is ridiculous)! [recalled from video, below; double-check my aging flesh memorybanks]. One in twelve SFHs are NOT insured, including mine (a rental); I also do not have personal rental insurance, as tenant, because I. do. not. care. #Mom&Pop

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n8trvfUTZs> spec: 5m40s (for a list of companies net-shedding)

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#98

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

bsaul wrote: post #83
eigenspace wrote: post #5

Japan holds a huge amount of US treasuries, and I guess was considering a mass sell off to raise cash to defend the Yen. US treasury bond yields are already dangerously high for the US and Japan selling treasuries would push yields up even higher, and could trigger more panic selling from others. I guess this is Bessent's scheme to try and kick that can down the road.

"was considering a mass sell off to raise cash to defend the Yen." How would that have worked ? Selling US bonds in exchange for yens, to diminish the amount of yen in the economy, and pump up its price ?

Currency interventions never work. They buy a bit of time maybe, but without any fixes to the underlying causes that made the intervention necessary, its a temporary solution.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#99

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

btown wrote: post #93
lazide wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who thought the admin was anything but conmen deserves what they get. The sad part is everyone else they’re going to take with them.

> deserves what they get American voters exist in an environment of propaganda addiction, with every piece of their personal technology reinforcing and profiting from said addiction, that has never existed before. I have great empathy and understanding for those who are bombarded by voices that are actively manipulating them for engagement, and I believe this empathy is key to understanding if, and how, a landscape o…

Understanding, absolutely. None of us are immune from propaganda, and most of us have at one time or another been swayed by selective arguments and echo chambers to behave poorly.

I don’t like that you have empathy for people who are right this second steering the government in a project of performative cruelty against me. I think you should withhold your empathy until they’ve been stopped and appropriately punished for their misdeeds.

Re: US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

#100

Post by FireBeyond »

btown wrote: post #93
lazide wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who thought the admin was anything but conmen deserves what they get. The sad part is everyone else they’re going to take with them.

> deserves what they get American voters exist in an environment of propaganda addiction, with every piece of their personal technology reinforcing and profiting from said addiction, that has never existed before. I have great empathy and understanding for those who are bombarded by voices that are actively manipulating them for engagement, and I believe this empathy is key to understanding if, and how, a landscape o…

> I believe this empathy is key to understanding if, and how, a landscape of echo chambers can nonetheless result in a sustainable and balanced future.

That ship has sailed. This administration is reinforcing that it is okay, even something to be celebrated, to be doing violence to those that they dislike, for whatever reasons. It is not mere parroting of propaganda that is the concern, but the consequences thereof. There is no "sustainable and balanced future" in that.

I have had arguments on this very site where I've been told that -I- and others like me are at fault. At fault for having exhausted tolerance for people peddling things like "after-birth abortions" (Did you know that in some Democrat states you can have an abortion up to 30 days after the baby is born?!?) and similar absolute garbage. Not even "differences of opinion or perspective". I've been told endlessly, "Maybe I need to put more effort into why they think or feel that way?" That won't work, because I'll be the only one. It's never "maybe they should think about why I think that's absolutely ridiculous". There's no effort on critical reasoning or discourse that will work there, because it's not grounded in reason in the first place. And when that comes up, crickets. But no, keep going high, keep working on empathy for people who actively celebrate LE shooting people, a President that will say from the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, quote, "My kids are insider trading all the time".

That ship has sailed. I'm not sure where it goes from here, but my fear is somewhere even uglier.

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