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China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

reuters.com

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Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#91

Post by lostlogin »

Haven880 wrote: post #89
arjie wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Withholding technology is the only tool we have. If we let them have the tech it's not like they'll start depending on us. They will simply replicate the machinery and then someone else will be writing a comment on Nacker Hews in this alternative Earth about how we were such fools in the West to simply let them have our technology thinking that would make them depend on us. In fact, we have this evidence because all…

There is this thing called payback. Chinese has a history of ultimate payback. The infamous very first one written down was eunuch Zhao Gao wiped clean entire Qin clan of Qin dynasty. WIPE CLEAN. When Deng met up with Thatcher, he gave her ultimatum to cede or army will march in that afternoon. That was just right after She won the Falkland war. USA will get Chinese payback. The only way to stop this is to invoke fri…

> USA will get Chinese payback. The only way to stop this is to invoke friend and savior role. Unfortunately, USA is playing the ultimate sore loser card with a generous dose of bullying. Be worry. Be very worry.

Watching Trump try to use tariffs while China holds the cards has been actually hilarious.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#92

Post by try-working »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #59
culi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but nobody in the world is denying that China's recent lightspeed advances in these areas isn't due to the trade war Trump started in his first term. It had an immediate and massive impact on China's economy and they had an equally massive response to it. China experienced the equivalent of the 1973 energy crisis that the US experienced in response to its role in the 1973 Yom Kippur War

China started these investments long before Trump was on the radar, during later Bush and early Obama. They might have upped it from $10 billion to $20 billion, but the ball was already rolling in 2017.

No, you are wrong. Without the blacklisting and export bans the DUV machine in the article would not exist today.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#93

Post by defrost »

SanjayMehta wrote: post #88
defrost wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poor examples. Pakistan with a lot of Saudi backing, NK with a lot of Chinese backing. That aside, China will master chip making at bleeding edge global scale, just as it did with EVs and rare earth processing, etc.

How is it a poor example? State level resources - even from decrepit countries like Pakistan and NK - will ALWAYS beat VC funding or whatever.

Because internal state level resources in Pakistan and NK didn't get them nuclear weapons, both countries required external assistance.

The point being made about China is that China secured a production monopoly on rare earth processing entirely on its own. As it did for EV's and will do for dense chip fabrication.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#94

Post by tarsinge »

gaigalas wrote: post #79
arjie wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Withholding technology is the only tool we have. If we let them have the tech it's not like they'll start depending on us. They will simply replicate the machinery and then someone else will be writing a comment on Nacker Hews in this alternative Earth about how we were such fools in the West to simply let them have our technology thinking that would make them depend on us. In fact, we have this evidence because all…

> Withholding technology is the only tool we have. The US has the strongest military in the world, tight control of a large part of the world economy, unprecedented cultural soft power, a permanent vetoing seat at the UN security counsel, vast territories, a 50-year headstart in space, thousands of nukes, dozens of cyber organizations with deep roots everywhere. The embargoes and tariffs are literally a skill issue.

The US had the strongest military in the world using outdated 20th century metrics. The new reality is the world is watching the US losing the war against Iran, depleting critical weapons inventories that need China’s supply chain to be rebuilt.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#95

Post by gaigalas »

tarsinge wrote: post #94
gaigalas wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Withholding technology is the only tool we have. The US has the strongest military in the world, tight control of a large part of the world economy, unprecedented cultural soft power, a permanent vetoing seat at the UN security counsel, vast territories, a 50-year headstart in space, thousands of nukes, dozens of cyber organizations with deep roots everywhere. The embargoes and tariffs are literally a skill issue.

The US had the strongest military in the world using outdated 20th century metrics. The new reality is the world is watching the US losing the war against Iran, depleting critical weapons inventories that need China’s supply chain to be rebuilt.

When the French used colorful obsolete uniforms in WWI, it was a skill issue. They had all the time in the world to modernize, but got cocky and made a terrible mistake.

The US made their military supply chain too complex, and in several points tied to private interests more than national security. It's not just the rare earths (that is a lame excuse), it's how insanely bloated the supply chain is due to too many hands on the pot. That is the major US vulnerability right now, and not letting that go (those private interests controlling a lot of stuff) is choking the US.

Most importantly, the war on Iran is asymmetrical, so it's not about having a powerful military. It's more a failure of soft power than strength. That soft power loss was also a skill issue (ostracized many international allies, etc).

It's more like the US broke its own toys and doesn't want China to fill the power vacuum it has put itself in.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#96

Post by sudosysgen »

coderenegade wrote: post #90
sudosysgen wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is definitely comparative advantage in certain technologies which depend on a niche supply chain with deep materials science experience, simply due to experience and network economies. China has many such advantages too. Lithography is very hard to dominate because if you want to do so, you have to convince your ecosystems to switch to domestic suppliers. But in the short term, they don't want to as that will h…

None of that is inherent. You could have said the same thing a decade ago about vehicle production, or microelectronics a decade before that, and yet here we are. The lesson we should learn from Comac is that China is quite happy to use its local market as a testbed until the technology is mature, and in the same way that it's only a matter of time before Comac has an internationally certified airframe and comes afte…

Sure, none of that is inherent. But do note that China never caught up in internal combustion engines. They had to wait for a fundamental paradigm change to catch up, and were not able to copy ICE technology to a satisfactory level. Similarly, China has been able to make serviceable airframes for decades, it's just until now that they're getting close to price competition - and likely Comac will be more expensive for decades to come.

My point is moreso that they can succeed in many domains, but it's mechanically unlikely they'll succeed on some domains unless we force their hand. Semis were one of them.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#97

Post by vachina »

thesmtsolver2 wrote: post #48
vachina wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American companies are banned the same reason TikTok and Huawei is banned in the US. Nobody wants spy apparatuses operating within their shore. Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China?

Look up when American companies got banned and when TikTok and Huawei got banned. American companies have been banned decades earlier. > Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China? Also, are you and the other commenter ignoring the fact, thousands to millions of companies from China sell in the US? Temu and Shein are still free to sell forced labor lead-inf…

> Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are completely banned in China. Google Search, YouTube, Gmail, and Google Maps are completely unavailable in mainland China

For very good reasons

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#98

Post by jiggawatts »

gkbrk wrote: post #69
jiggawatts wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhat over-estimating the numbers, but even if your stats were accurate it wouldn’t change the critique that “the west” does the exact same thing. This isn’t what-about-ism, this is simply acknowledging the realpolitik that there are great powers vying for control over the rest if the world through proxies. A game as old as civilisation itself. We support Ukraine, they support Russia. We support Israel, they suppo…

You’re insane if you think supporting Russia is not “more wrong” than supporting Ukraine during a war Russia started to invade Ukraine.

That's not my meaning. There is a larger game being played. Sometimes one side is the aggressor in one particular local skirmish, sometimes the other.

Over the last few decades, the United States has regularly been the "unprovoked aggressor".

But again, the numbers aren't the point. The individual skirmishes aren't the point.

Neither side is "good" or "evil" like some child's cartoon. These are merely Great Powers poking and prodding each other, looking for advantage.

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#99

Post by ezst »

rdm_blackhole wrote: post #83
ezst wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ultimately a win for the consumer, China does not tend to ban technology as a weapon Doesn't have to, China will just subsidize their businesses, sometimes at a substantial loss, for as long as it takes to bankrupt the international competitors. So yeah, if by that you mean "they end up unemployed and in overall economic pain, but for a short time some stuff was abnormally cheap" then yes, "it's a win for the consu…

Nobody is stopping the western countries of doing the same exact thing with their own industries. As a matter of fact, the EU and the US are subsiding a lot of their own companies or even entire sectors of their economy (agriculture/arms/space/IT... the list goes on) already so why is it a problem if China does it? You can't complain about something that literally every single country on this planet is doing and then…

Because the tools are somewhat comparable, you seem to have been tricked into conflating "protectionism" (which has some stabilising virtues, especially in the area of agriculture, arms, heavy industries, resources extraction) and "dumping" (which is an aggressive act). There is also something to be said about the scale of it. And of the validity of a world view where "every trick is allowed, everything is for grabs, and let the biggest be the winner, and the winner take it all".

Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

#100

Post by arjie »

Haven880 wrote: post #89
arjie wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Withholding technology is the only tool we have. If we let them have the tech it's not like they'll start depending on us. They will simply replicate the machinery and then someone else will be writing a comment on Nacker Hews in this alternative Earth about how we were such fools in the West to simply let them have our technology thinking that would make them depend on us. In fact, we have this evidence because all…

There is this thing called payback. Chinese has a history of ultimate payback. The infamous very first one written down was eunuch Zhao Gao wiped clean entire Qin clan of Qin dynasty. WIPE CLEAN. When Deng met up with Thatcher, he gave her ultimatum to cede or army will march in that afternoon. That was just right after She won the Falkland war. USA will get Chinese payback. The only way to stop this is to invoke fri…

Were we going to get payback for this latest economic war? Or for the last one? Or for supporting Taiwan in the 80s? Or for the Korean War? That’s the thing with this payback notion. It’s always justifiable. You just rewind to an appropriate time. No leader of the present can do anything about the fact that we killed two hundred thousand Chinese soldiers under Mao’s command in the Korean War.

There was never going to be a friend and savior role. Given that we had the Korean War there was always going to be this convenient thing to rewind to and blame.

Zhao Gao was always going to be conveniently rewritten to be a payback story. Even if he wasn’t described as a eunuch until later. That’s the thing with civilizations. They have these motifs that are post-hoc justified. If China wishes to threaten us in the future, and no doubt they will have the ability to fight us on even terms and perhaps even on uneven terms, they will simply seek an appropriate past.

After all, note that Zhao Gao’s story is one of supposed alignment with revealed misalignment afterwards. It’s not like he came out an enemy. He worked through subterfuge. Should we have decided to ally with China in the 2000s, doubtless when they turned on us they would easily tell the tale of revenge for the Korean War for which they pretended to be allies until at the last moment they revealed themselves as plotting revenge! Just like Zhao Gao ended the Qin dynasty you will say, proudly.

President Xi Jinping has referenced the Thucydides trap many times. To start with, dismissive of this idea, and now warnings that it is still avoidable. It won’t be revenge for the Korean War or for this latest economic escapade that will be the cause of any conflict with China. But when it comes, whatever story the Chinese public needs, the Chinese leadership can deliver. If revenge is what you want, you’ll get that story.

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