I would not be overestimating this achievement, but not underestimating either. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. China had access to the latest EUV tech for some time already, so they had abilities to reverse-engineer that tech. Eventually, the verdict will be clear only after we see actual chips produced using these machine, and when we learn their real yield.
China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
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Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
The patent system is very strong evidence that there are shortcuts. So many that we have laws designed to protect and incentivize version 1. Sure, there’s some hard lessons along the way; but far, far, far fewer than figuring it out in the first place. And this misplaced assumption about how China won’t be able to innovate when standing on the shoulders of giants (with you saying ‘are always going to catch up’) looks…
There are just some things that China can’t access and they have to reinvent on their own. Like 50 years of intensive materials research that is locked away in a safe and access is heavily restricted. Yes, China could innovate by standing on the shoulders of giants if they had access to the giants, they simply don’t have access.
I struggle to imagine that all 50 years have been wholly blocked from all international research students. That seems highly implausible.
Edit: for a comparison, it took the Soviet Union 4 years to have their own Atom Bomb after the US dropped two.
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure how true this is but I've read in other threads that ASML employs many Chinese engineers, and also read other news that the Chinese state is paying engineers working abroad at companies like ASML alluring salaries to get them to work back home.
You can employ as many engineers as you want but if you compartilize them enough and separate key processes to a very small group of people (Dutch citizens or whatever, maybe military), you can actually protect the process as a whole. It’s not like a nuclear bomb that even high school students can even figure out how to make without much help.
The thing is that an expert in the area does not need the detailed how-to guide/complete description of the process.
Few hints here and there can help to get over the key hurdles, with most other steps either a general knowledge for the experts, or analogues can be independently developed without too much trouble.
Yes, the result is not the same, but actually developing indigenous expertise is the key required component anyway,
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are these tippy top-secret Skunkworks Final Boss Wunderwaffen with you in the room right now? More and more there seems to be some wishful thinking that the USA has another hidden generation of SR-71 or Stealth tech type surprises squirrelled away for a rainy day. Find this hard to believe when the best brains of the generation got hoovered up by hedge funds, click merchants, and now token slingers. Is there anything…
There are a lot of very very very smart people working in defense. Gov doesn't pay the best but the benefits are unmatched.
afaik no one is working in defence anymore; now they are working in war
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn’t China heavily restrict competition in its domestic markets? Probably only North Korea is worse. China is one of the most restrictive countries but expects full access to US market behaving like a US state or territory in its claims to US domestic markets lol. Last time I checked, China is not a US province or territory but maybe that is the state of affairs China aspires to in the long term with Trump looking…
American companies are banned the same reason TikTok and Huawei is banned in the US. Nobody wants spy apparatuses operating within their shore. Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China?
Most of the time, the domestic market in China is indirectly controlled through political and social influence, not through policy. It's not a fair market at all.
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#66When China eventually catches up on conventional lithography, the goalposts will simply shift to silicon photonics and optical logic, a transition DARPA laid the publicly visible groundwork for decades ago through programs like POEM and PIPES while keeping the mature implementations strictly classified until needed.
Yeah, and Chinese (before that: Japanese) cars will always be crap.
Times change, believing in your never ending superiority is foolish.
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#67[dead]
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#68It doesn't make me upset that China seems able and determined to catch up on the litography technology - what else are they supposed to do? What does make me upset is that Europe has the technology and seems unwilling or unable to get it's act together and make some chips. China seems to have managed this part too, only without access to the latest chip making technology!
don't worry, im hearing that von der Leyen and all the EU politicians are hard at work and are about to shake hands and announce another package of funds that will disappear into the void in order to make the EU the "powerhouse" of AI, chips, datacenters, technology, jobs, space, everything.
just wait, this time it'll make a dent. lots of hand shaking and smiling for the cameras. it's gonna be a new era
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
China is single-handedly propping up Iran, NK, and Russia financially. If you ahem removed the top 1000 leaders of the CCP tomorrow, those three countries wouldn’t be able to continue their population repression and the world would be an immeasurably better place. Iran killed, what, 20k of their own population earlier this year? Russia has lost 10x that this year alone. Blocking tech from China directly hampers their…
Somewhat over-estimating the numbers, but even if your stats were accurate it wouldn’t change the critique that “the west” does the exact same thing. This isn’t what-about-ism, this is simply acknowledging the realpolitik that there are great powers vying for control over the rest if the world through proxies. A game as old as civilisation itself. We support Ukraine, they support Russia. We support Israel, they suppo…
You’re insane if you think supporting Russia is not “more wrong” than supporting Ukraine during a war Russia started to invade Ukraine.
Re: China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Somewhat over-estimating the numbers, but even if your stats were accurate it wouldn’t change the critique that “the west” does the exact same thing. This isn’t what-about-ism, this is simply acknowledging the realpolitik that there are great powers vying for control over the rest if the world through proxies. A game as old as civilisation itself. We support Ukraine, they support Russia. We support Israel, they suppo…
You’re insane if you think supporting Russia is not “more wrong” than supporting Ukraine during a war Russia started to invade Ukraine.
What about Israel?