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AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

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Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#11
post #4

Right, whats happening here is the first sales pitch to CEOs: "AI will let you fire everyone" is not panning out (duh)... so for the next trick, "AI will at least let you pay them less" is a natural pivot. Both are absurd. Just let the hypecycle die off in peace already. We've seen this play out in history multiple times, already, so it's pretty ignorant to ignore the evidence. Carpenters aren't being paid less becau…

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Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#12
post #3

If the companies find a new way to make their products cheaper to produce and their services cheaper to provide - will it lead to lower prices as well?

It will. We saw this a lot with tvs, appliances, etc that are now manufactured where it is a lot less money and now they cost a lot less money.

Interestingly it didn't seem to happen with cars

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#13
post #3

If the companies find a new way to make their products cheaper to produce and their services cheaper to provide - will it lead to lower prices as well?

Hahahhahahahhahha….you serious?

Doesn't seem insane. OpenAI made Luna more efficient and dropped prices 80% this week.

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#14
post #3

If the companies find a new way to make their products cheaper to produce and their services cheaper to provide - will it lead to lower prices as well?

No, there has been a big push from big tech like Meta for more and more regulations to make sure competition couldn’t keep up

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#15
post #3

If the companies find a new way to make their products cheaper to produce and their services cheaper to provide - will it lead to lower prices as well?

Hahahhahahahhahha….you serious?

It will happen as long as there are competitors

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will. We saw this a lot with tvs, appliances, etc that are now manufactured where it is a lot less money and now they cost a lot less money.

Interestingly it didn't seem to happen with cars

It probably did in China. In EU/US we don't benefit from these low prices for protectionist reasons.

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#17
post #4

Right, whats happening here is the first sales pitch to CEOs: "AI will let you fire everyone" is not panning out (duh)... so for the next trick, "AI will at least let you pay them less" is a natural pivot. Both are absurd. Just let the hypecycle die off in peace already. We've seen this play out in history multiple times, already, so it's pretty ignorant to ignore the evidence. Carpenters aren't being paid less becau…

it's not really comparable IMO

Eventually AI will be able to just bootstrap solid security, payment, accounts, DB management, backups, customer support services that automatically link to the correct department or sub-system

I think the environment and landscape will change and different skills will be more valuable for developers

But I think the existing skill-sets developers use can mostly be automated away

If you were really good at your job as a contract software engineer in the past, you would basically just automate yourself out of a job and have to find a new one anyway. This just accelerates it.

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#18
post #4

Right, whats happening here is the first sales pitch to CEOs: "AI will let you fire everyone" is not panning out (duh)... so for the next trick, "AI will at least let you pay them less" is a natural pivot. Both are absurd. Just let the hypecycle die off in peace already. We've seen this play out in history multiple times, already, so it's pretty ignorant to ignore the evidence. Carpenters aren't being paid less becau…

AI is no longer the nail gun, that was auto complete with gpt 3.5. now it's like you say: "Build me a new roof" and an hour later it has materialized somehow. Not sure many carpenters would survive this.

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#19
post #4

Right, whats happening here is the first sales pitch to CEOs: "AI will let you fire everyone" is not panning out (duh)... so for the next trick, "AI will at least let you pay them less" is a natural pivot. Both are absurd. Just let the hypecycle die off in peace already. We've seen this play out in history multiple times, already, so it's pretty ignorant to ignore the evidence. Carpenters aren't being paid less becau…

it's not really comparable IMO Eventually AI will be able to just bootstrap solid security, payment, accounts, DB management, backups, customer support services that automatically link to the correct department or sub-system I think the environment and landscape will change and different skills will be more valuable for developers But I think the existing skill-sets developers use can mostly be automated away If you…

> Eventually AI will be able to just bootstrap solid security, payment, accounts, DB management, backups, customer support services that automatically link to the correct department or sub-system

You are describing a templating system. It's useful to create projects from scratch, but that's not what software engineers do 99% of the time.

What software engineers do 99% of the time is modifying existing services to adapt to changing requirements that more often than not are grossly unspecified.

Also, a key part of a software engineer's work is serve as a point of contact with non software engineers to discuss what services do and plan work.

> If you were really good at your job as a contract software engineer in the past, you would basically just automate yourself out of a job and have to find a new one anyway. This just accelerates it.

I don't think this assumption holds water. At most your efficiency improved as short contracts to patch random customer projects now can meet the definition of done (maintenance be damned) in shorter iterations.

However, ironically we are also seeing the occurrence of consultancy firms specialized in providing software engineering services as contract engineers that are explicitly marketed as solutions to problems introduced by vibe-coding.

Re: AI's real threat to jobs isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

#20
post #3

If the companies find a new way to make their products cheaper to produce and their services cheaper to provide - will it lead to lower prices as well?

It will. We saw this a lot with tvs, appliances, etc that are now manufactured where it is a lot less money and now they cost a lot less money.

They are not much cheaper, but they are packed with stupid features no one wants
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