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Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

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Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and the scary thing is, when Google starts selling ads in Gemini results, you wont be able to see them, it will be a bigger business that Google Search ever was. Update: Perhaps this is what Zitron doesn't want to say out loud, (and why investors are confused), the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known.

There's just no easy way to see what makes LLMs able to duplicate the profits of the entire existing tech sector of the economy. This is the return they need to make based on what they're currently expensing and projecting. Couple that with the circular financing agreements and it's just preposterous. Zitron may have been first and most outspoken to this argument, but like all bubbles it's an open secret.

LLM advertising consuming all current advertising dollars plus more is realistic. That's a solid chunk of the entire tech center it eats right there.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#22
The chimp brain cant handle unpredictability for too long. Just keep pushing people into unpredictable situations or specifically try getting someone to say I dont know constantly. Beyond a point story generation starts, to feel sane within an "I dont know" reality.

Truth is things are unpredictable. Predictability of anything hasnt increased.

Stories/Lies exist for cope. Cause of chimp brain dynamics responding to unpredictability.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read more of Zitron's work, he says that there's little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. If they are bled dry, then the hyperscalers will not have enough customers for the data centers which they have blown so much capex spend on and will have to soon go into debt to ensure they can be built. The GPUs and the high bandwidth memory they use have little use other than to run and t…

> little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. I think every other business is going to slowly wake up to how powerful machine learning can be, and or, how important it will be to run your own models you can trust. I don't doubt that there is a bubble, but once the hardware is built, there will be plenty of customers. I guess if you overpay for hardware, you can be undercut by data centers…

I don't think so. AI is a general purpose tech and you have many companies still doing discoveries on how to apply the technology in a useful way. It's an expensive solution in search of a problem. Not to mention no one wants to pay the actual cost of what it takes to deliver the technology. The whole business model is unsustainable.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#24
post #14

I don't think Zitron has been right about anything in the last 5 years. But he talks a good talk.

I cannot understand why people listen to him? I feel like I must be living in an alternate universe to a substantial amount of people? It's bananas...

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let us assume a person cannot change society, they simply do not have the leverage, even if they are a billionaire or most politicians. This is a systems problem, requiring enormous investment of time and resources to change trajectories of. Therefore, the choices available are to continue to live in a low trust society, or move to a high trust society and minimize your exposure to low trust society impact on your li…

This data conflicts with my image of Japan and China, and I wonder where the discrepancy lies.

The propagandised idea that living in China means living under an oppressive communist regime, runs counter to the countries wild success at pretty much everything it does.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#26
post #22

The chimp brain cant handle unpredictability for too long. Just keep pushing people into unpredictable situations or specifically try getting someone to say I dont know constantly. Beyond a point story generation starts, to feel sane within an "I dont know" reality. Truth is things are unpredictable. Predictability of anything hasnt increased. Stories/Lies exist for cope. Cause of chimp brain dynamics responding to u…

[dead]

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read more of Zitron's work, he says that there's little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. If they are bled dry, then the hyperscalers will not have enough customers for the data centers which they have blown so much capex spend on and will have to soon go into debt to ensure they can be built. The GPUs and the high bandwidth memory they use have little use other than to run and t…

and he wrong on all of those accounts. but he’s got the best gig, he has been writing literally one same article for years, gets LLM to shuffle the words and publishes it under a different title :)

Now, now, let's be fair. I don't think LLMs are used for writing or editing the articles in any way.

(Each reader can decide themselves whether what you wrote is unfair to Zitron or to LLMs.)

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#28
post #14

I don't think Zitron has been right about anything in the last 5 years. But he talks a good talk.

I cannot understand why people listen to him? I feel like I must be living in an alternate universe to a substantial amount of people? It's bananas...

> It's bananas...

Actually, it's lemons (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Zitron).

Sorry, I couldn't resist:)

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#29

Even if we don't consider economics, the reason "AI" has not increased white collar productivity is because it's not necessary for knowledge work beyond aggregating information for research. Knowledge work has always been a lot more arguing than "doing". Google was already the default option for this, and Google Gemini is a genuine improvement for Google Search. Google (and Apple) have sidestepped all the drama by ju…

Yes, and the scary thing is, when Google starts selling ads in Gemini results, you wont be able to see them, it will be a bigger business that Google Search ever was. Update: Perhaps this is what Zitron doesn't want to say out loud, (and why investors are confused), the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known.

> the return on investment is going to come from having the largest mind control machine the world has even known

This is what Google already was and continues to be. They didn't need OpenAI and Anthropic as foils to maintain that position or expand Google Cloud. If anything, they did all this work with Gemini despite what's happening on the sidelines.

OpenAI secured their multinational defense contract with Project Stargate. I can easily see the extremely high demand to get rid of so many contractors with security clearances. No government believes that the risk of another Snowden-like whistleblower is worth the mediocre intelligence summaries.

The loser will be Anthropic unless Microsoft buys them out for a lowball price at the last minute in an attempt to make Copilot less terrible. For everyone else, it's business as usual.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This data conflicts with my image of Japan and China, and I wonder where the discrepancy lies.

The propagandised idea that living in China means living under an oppressive communist regime, runs counter to the countries wild success at pretty much everything it does.

I don't think success directly translates into high trust.

I think of China as a hypercompetitive place, which to me should mean lower trust.

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