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Fermi Paradox

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Re: Fermi Paradox

#11
post #8
post #2

Have you seen that website that shows the solar system if the moon were only one pixel? [1] Getting from the Sun to Pluto takes a very long time you might give up and close your browser tab. Many theories attempt to explain why we haven’t yet encountered extraterrestrial civilizations. One possibility is that, given the immense scale of the cosmos, intelligent life may exist but is simply too far away for contact. An…

> rarely, if ever, evolves beyond primitive intelligence. Given the complexity of the Periodic Table, molecules, DNA, &c can we agree that life is a low-probability event? Previous paragraph omits the contextual perfection of our planet/solar system. Seems fair to assert that we are a one-shot deal, until proven otherwise, here on Terra Fermi.

> Given the complexity of the Periodic Table, molecules, DNA, &c can we agree that life is a low-probability event?

Given how quickly life started on Earth after Earth's formation, it seems like it isn't a low-probability event, but it still might be considering it's the only place we've found life (not that we've made a dent in our search of the cosmos for life).

"Wind back the tape of life to the early days of the Burgess Shale; let it play again from an identical starting point, and the chance becomes vanishingly small that anything like human intelligence would grace the replay." - Stephen Jay Gould.

> Previous paragraph omits the contextual perfection of our planet/solar system.

It's perfect because it's the world we grew up in.

Re: Fermi Paradox

#12
post #11
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> rarely, if ever, evolves beyond primitive intelligence. Given the complexity of the Periodic Table, molecules, DNA, &c can we agree that life is a low-probability event? Previous paragraph omits the contextual perfection of our planet/solar system. Seems fair to assert that we are a one-shot deal, until proven otherwise, here on Terra Fermi.

> Given the complexity of the Periodic Table, molecules, DNA, &c can we agree that life is a low-probability event? Given how quickly life started on Earth after Earth's formation, it seems like it isn't a low-probability event, but it still might be considering it's the only place we've found life (not that we've made a dent in our search of the cosmos for life). "Wind back the tape of life to the early days of the…

We hand-wave at each other.

The repeatable experiment would be another universe itself.

Cutting to the chase and declaring you the winner of the discussion.

Re: Fermi Paradox

#14

>Earth's television and radio broadcasts would only be detectable at distances up to 0.3 light-years, less than 1/10 the distance to the nearest star. This is what I always thought was one of the major problems - unless an alien civilization is directly targeting Earth, we would never detect them. And our EM emissions are too weak to be detected by other aliens unless they stumble near us for some reason.

Not so:

They found that airport radar systems, which sweep the skies for airplanes, send out a combined radio signal of 2×1015 watts. That’s enough for telescopes comparable to the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia to pick up as far as 200 light-years away. [0]

200 ly is about 100k stars

[0]: https://earthsky.org/space/airport-radar-could-signal-earth-...

Re: Fermi Paradox

#15
i think the answer is the unlikelihood of having life get started in the first place, we have a better idea of how life evolves than how it began. i think the reason it happened so early on earth's history isn't because it is common, but because something about the conditions of the early earth was uniquely well suited for it to happen

Re: Fermi Paradox

#16
post #9

Heretical view: intelligent alien life is everywhere swimming around us. We are just not capable of really understanding it. When a human walks past an ant, maybe the ant senses the shadow and the blockage of the sun.. but it isn't equipped to recognize the human. Likewise, I suspect we are in a similar situation where even our smartest minds and best scientifically advanced sensors are simply incapable of properly d…

Most likely view ...We are so primitive we are like Sentinel Island. Nobody allowed to land here under severe penalties of the Galactic Council.

They were going to upgrade us to a class B-1 civilization, but that was stopped after a second audit looked at the Politicians we have been electing....

Re: Fermi Paradox

#18
post #9

Heretical view: intelligent alien life is everywhere swimming around us. We are just not capable of really understanding it. When a human walks past an ant, maybe the ant senses the shadow and the blockage of the sun.. but it isn't equipped to recognize the human. Likewise, I suspect we are in a similar situation where even our smartest minds and best scientifically advanced sensors are simply incapable of properly d…

Most likely view ...We are so primitive we are like Sentinel Island. Nobody allowed to land here under severe penalties of the Galactic Council. They were going to upgrade us to a class B-1 civilization, but that was stopped after a second audit looked at the Politicians we have been electing....

Can you imagine trying to explain any of the current world leaders to little green men?

“After they killed their first hundred thousand other people, why weren’t they arrested and jailed?”

“Err…”

“And why not arrest them after they stole billions from the public they were supposed to serve?”

“Umm…”

“I can understand voters making a mistake once… but repeatedly voting in the same autocrat?”

“Well…”

Re: Fermi Paradox

#19

>Earth's television and radio broadcasts would only be detectable at distances up to 0.3 light-years, less than 1/10 the distance to the nearest star. This is what I always thought was one of the major problems - unless an alien civilization is directly targeting Earth, we would never detect them. And our EM emissions are too weak to be detected by other aliens unless they stumble near us for some reason.

Not so: They found that airport radar systems, which sweep the skies for airplanes, send out a combined radio signal of 2×1015 watts. That’s enough for telescopes comparable to the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia to pick up as far as 200 light-years away. [0] 200 ly is about 100k stars [0]: https://earthsky.org/space/airport-radar-could-signal-earth-...

The signals will get there in up to 200 years from now.

Re: Fermi Paradox

#20
post #15

i think the answer is the unlikelihood of having life get started in the first place, we have a better idea of how life evolves than how it began. i think the reason it happened so early on earth's history isn't because it is common, but because something about the conditions of the early earth was uniquely well suited for it to happen

Starting so rapidly after there was water on Earth's surface, and probably starting on Mars very rapidly as well, mitigates against this view.
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