AI doesn't generate working products, that's still your job

What I actually fear is more subtle: I already do a fair bit of project management and technical leadership. I could do more. Sure, I'd miss the coding, but I also enjoy a lot of the stuff around it.

But the goal is to expand what the AI can do in each generation. At this point, Fable 5 can ace almost any greenfield project a skilled developer might have written in a few days. But it's bad at refactoring, bad at keeping the code clean as it goes, and bad at discovering new insights as it codes. So Anthropic will train Fable 6, using benchmarks like SlopCodeBench that test maintenance over time.

Now what about project management? Train Fable 7. What about product management and talking to stakeholders? Train Fable 8. What about market research and sales? Train Fable 9.

By this point, Anthropic doesn't need to actually release these newest models to the public. Why, that might be dangerous! Instead, they write, "deisgn [sic] a successful software product and sell it plz." And they spin up a million dollars worth of compute and let it crank out SaaSes, iPhone apps, etc., driving entire software companies out of business.

Then they spin up some more instances, and say, "make robot plz" and "try a thousand ways to make yrself smrater." I mean, Qwen and DeepSeek keep finding ways to pack more smarts into a given number of weights. Fable 9 will likely be able to do the same. Hell, Fable 5 can probably run 1,000 machine learning experiments now, just grinding through ideas the way ChatGPT's internal models grind through proofs.

And this is my problem. If it were just programmers losing their jobs, well, sometimes professions die. But what makes you think it will stop with us? How far will this go in the next 4 years? The next 20?

"Production-grade" typically means something that has been battle tested by users and has gone through all the trials and tribulations of dealing with their complains, suggestions, and other feedback to see an initial vision (the prototype) become what users actually want and need.

The earlier quote might be slightly overblown as some of those complaints, suggestions, and feedback can be iterated on more quickly thanks to AI. However, I think you will find that the overall premise is sound: The feedback loop is where you will spend the vast majority of your time and no coding agent can speed that up. Code was never the real bottleneck. A full-day coding session now being a 15 minute coding session helps, every so slightly, but when you still need to spend weeks talking to the users to figure out what needs to be done in that day/15 minutes, shaving off a handful of hours relative to weeks remains but a drop in the bucket. The marginal improvement is barely worth recognizing.

I think we have played this game long time ago. If products were a question of a single request then outsourcing companies would dominate over product ones.

I think a lot of product development happens in the itearations after the intial prototype/MVP and so on. It is not only the technical aspect to it, you need to spend time on a problem deeply understand what are the root causes of pains and address them in your product, both from UX and also from technical perspective.

People were able to "prompt" a product even before to an outsourcing company, but they'd rather pay the fee to a product company because of the expertese they have gained through out the years and all the users they've spoken to.

There's going to be plenty of work helping other companies make some sense of their vibe coded efforts. The value of individual projects might decrease, but there will be a lot more of them. And without help they won't actually work out all that well.

I talked to a company that does not employ software engineers that were doing some things with Claude Code a few weeks ago. Insightful comment: I want that person to do what I hired them to do, not mess around with code. What they were trying to do was a bit out of their comfort zone and they were smart enough to realize it.

There is going to be a lot more of this. What's very real is that companies selling one size fits all products to others are going to have a much harder time selling because everybody is going to expect a thing tailored to them because they now can. Delivering those things is still going to be work that needs to be done. A lot of work actually. People with experience building things with their own hands have an advantage. And if those people also understand the domain in which they are trying to do stuff, that's a double advantage.

Like always, most people haven't got a clue about what they actually need. Figuring out what people need (consulting) and then delivering it has always been the job. But you might be able to take on a few more customers now. There won't be a shortage of those once people figure out software just got cheaper.

> Looking at the countless repetitive posts on HN, it shows what HN programmers are afraid of. They're afraid of the destruction of their overall meta-methodology.

I think this already happened. What's hard to swallow for us is the countless years spent studying, researching, and investing our time to be the best possible professionals in a very demanding, skill-intensive industry.

Now that software development is starting to be industrialized, I think it's fair to react with fear and uncertainty.

Yep, we are trying to find new strategies and methodologies to still stay relevant, but I think they'll become obsolete soon once the technology reaches a maturity point for full automation and the industrialization of the development process.

What it will look like, I don't know (I have a few guesses), but what I know is that I'll struggle a lot, in the middle of my forties, to reskill myself, especially considering a country of no opportunities like Italy.

> In that sense, I think the recent post from Jane Street is more like a new solution.

Can you please share it?