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The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

reuters.com

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Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#81

Post by Shocka1 »

bayarearefugee wrote: post #3
jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

And somehow this situation is all Joe Biden's fault, and Trump is still going to fix it, any day now. A very significant amount of American voters believe this. To this day. And their belief in this is still being reinforced by the vast majority of the "mainstream media" which they believe is left-biased, which hasn't been true for very many years at this point. This is why we are fucked and there is no way out of th…

I don't think picking sides is helpful here at all, but I do agree with you that we are more than likely screwed. The average left or right leaning American has no idea how a bond even works. Experiment - ask random people in your life (with tact of course) how bond yields affect bond prices. YMMV, but I would guess more often than not they would not know. The same people can tell you what's going down on Facebook/Instagram, but other than that both sides seem to be hypnotized or outraged on rotating social media topics. It's actually very disturbing to me at times, but what can ya do?

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#82

Post by lovich »

Cyph0n wrote: post #60
matwood wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for your comments. In short, it's complicated. The other piece which you didn't mention that other people bring up is cutting off the 4B-8B in military aid to Israel. In the past that might have given the US more leverage, but Israel has a 700B GDP economy now - they don't need that aid to buy weapons. The aid the US sends just ends up back in the US economy, and keeps Israel from buying arms from China.

> In short, it's complicated. No, it is not. The US has the power to sanction entire states & cut them out from the global banking system overnight. Look at what Cuba has suffered for daring to oppose the US. > but Israel has a 700B GDP economy now That would mean shit if the country is sanctioned and its leaders declared persona non grata. South Africa was similarly quite powerful, but when you’re reliant on Western…

Yea, but that’s not a single phone call from the president. I know we’re getting closer and closer to an Imperial Executive every year but we definitely weren’t there under Biden.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#83

Post by UltraSane »

piva00 wrote: post #79
UltraSane wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"A historical event from 1300 years ago is a bit irrelevant to contemporary issues." 1300 years vs 78 years, what is the cutoff?

78 years is not that far ago in terms of human generations, the children of the people displaced are still alive, and they've disputed it all the time since then. Don't understand why you think 78 years is a long time, even less why you think it's equivalent to 1300 years.

The problem is that you assert 78 years is soon enough for the Palastinian claim to the land to still matter but 1300 years is too long for the Byzantine claim to still matter so we have a paradox of the heap situation where you have to choose a hard cutoff time period after which all claims to land are invalid.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#85

Post by Cyph0n »

lovich wrote: post #82
Cyph0n wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In short, it's complicated. No, it is not. The US has the power to sanction entire states & cut them out from the global banking system overnight. Look at what Cuba has suffered for daring to oppose the US. > but Israel has a 700B GDP economy now That would mean shit if the country is sanctioned and its leaders declared persona non grata. South Africa was similarly quite powerful, but when you’re reliant on Western…

Yea, but that’s not a single phone call from the president. I know we’re getting closer and closer to an Imperial Executive every year but we definitely weren’t there under Biden.

Let’s just agree to disagree, although we will never know for sure given that Biden is a self-avowed Zionist who chose the path of unconditional support.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#86

Post by webninja »

seanhunter wrote: post #44

Speaking as a non-American, and without the lens of partisan politics, it seems incredibly obvious to me that Kevin Warsh ... in terms of credibility as an economist, with Ben Bernanke one step to either side of Powell depending on how much you feel he was a victim of circumstances in the 2008 crisis. That said, the current problems in the US economy are entirely out of the control of the Fed and all to do with the c…

I am a U.S. citizen so I have a stake in the success or failure of our country. Old Dinosaur Janet Yellen single handedly added more to the U.S. federal debt more than any other person in modern history. The damage she did, is the kind of damage someone would historically burn at the stake for. Trillions of debt that your future kids will have to repay casually makes you want to bring up the topic of back tar and feathering. I don’t know enough about Kevin Warsh yet to comment about him but Powell (unlike Janet) was at least very at his job, even if he frequently treated lagging economic indicators like leading indicator. Through lagging heavy actions that made me wealthy enough to put a down-payment on a house, Powell turned the Fed from a fairly unknown, hidden organization into a household name. The Fed should not be as popular as a celebrity on TMZ because it brings politics and incompetent influencers into the decision outcomes.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#87

Post by fragmede »

webninja wrote: post #86
seanhunter wrote: post #44

Speaking as a non-American, and without the lens of partisan politics, it seems incredibly obvious to me that Kevin Warsh ... in terms of credibility as an economist, with Ben Bernanke one step to either side of Powell depending on how much you feel he was a victim of circumstances in the 2008 crisis. That said, the current problems in the US economy are entirely out of the control of the Fed and all to do with the c…

I am a U.S. citizen so I have a stake in the success or failure of our country. Old Dinosaur Janet Yellen single handedly added more to the U.S. federal debt more than any other person in modern history. The damage she did, is the kind of damage someone would historically burn at the stake for. Trillions of debt that your future kids will have to repay casually makes you want to bring up the topic of back tar and fea…

It is misleading to imply she personally chose to create that debt. Congress and the President decided on it, she was simply the head of the Treasury department responsible for financing them. And the "them" is Covid, the CHIPs act, interest rates and refinancing.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#88

Post by lovich »

Cyph0n wrote: post #85
lovich wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, but that’s not a single phone call from the president. I know we’re getting closer and closer to an Imperial Executive every year but we definitely weren’t there under Biden.

Let’s just agree to disagree, although we will never know for sure given that Biden is a self-avowed Zionist who chose the path of unconditional support.

I will not agree to disagree.

If you believe that " ... Biden could've ended that conflict with a phone call ... " as the original poster I replied to said, then please explain to me the mechanics of who exactly he would call, and how that phone call would end this conflict.

I am asking that because I am appalled at how often people discussing this conflict act like fucking wars between different organizations can just be solved with a snap of someone's fingers.

If you cannot engage with the complexities of reality, then you shouldn't be surprised that problems aren't solved as quickly, easily, and simply as you feel they should be.

This is a region that has been in constant warfare for longer than the US has existed as a nation between people where(and I hate to use this term because its normally a whataboutism) both sides have refused peace and appear ready to fight until their opponents or themselves are eradicated. No fucking third party putting sanctions on one group or the other is going to cause their fighting to end or we would have already seen the end of the Ukrainian/Russian war.

As an addendum to the above, when you say "agree to disagree" but then add your opinion at the end with

> ... although we will never know for sure given that Biden is a self-avowed Zionist who chose the path of unconditional support.

You are commenting in bad faith.

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#89

Post by pseudohadamard »

webninja wrote: post #86
seanhunter wrote: post #44

Speaking as a non-American, and without the lens of partisan politics, it seems incredibly obvious to me that Kevin Warsh ... in terms of credibility as an economist, with Ben Bernanke one step to either side of Powell depending on how much you feel he was a victim of circumstances in the 2008 crisis. That said, the current problems in the US economy are entirely out of the control of the Fed and all to do with the c…

I am a U.S. citizen so I have a stake in the success or failure of our country. Old Dinosaur Janet Yellen single handedly added more to the U.S. federal debt more than any other person in modern history. The damage she did, is the kind of damage someone would historically burn at the stake for. Trillions of debt that your future kids will have to repay casually makes you want to bring up the topic of back tar and fea…

It wasn't Janet Yellen who holds the record, it was Marriner Eccles, who took it from 40% of GDP to 112% of GDP. Who woulda thought debt would blow out from such a silly thing as a world war, or a pandemic?

Re: The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

#90

Post by Sabinus »

iamnothere wrote: post #71
jmyeet wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called the ratchet effect [1]. In our modern political paradigm, conservatives torch the economy, introduce heinous policies and give massive tax breaks to the wealthy until their popularity drops enough that Democrats get voted in and... do nothing. This has several names such as "controlled opposition" and the "mirage of dissent" [2]. As an example, take the current Iran war. There's very little opposition in…

Not helped by both parties uniting wherever necessary to freeze out outsiders (socialists, libertarians, or even liberal reformists). Anything to preserve the status quo.

I'd be interested to know when the Democrat party drove out liberal reformists.
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