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U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

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Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#161

Post by ElevenLathe »

jmpman wrote: post #146
juujian wrote: post #3

Upsetting how we are reaching these lows while the administration is accusing everyone else of wasting taxpayer money except for themselves. At least under previous administrations you would get something for your money, like science funding and healthcare for the needy, not just bombing runs and posturing.

As much as people may dislike Regan, his goal for reducing taxes on the wealthy was based upon the laffer curve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve The hypothesis is that lowering taxes rates will actually increase government revenues. The Trump cuts don't feel like they're laffer optimal. Instead they feel like political capture by the wealthy class. A cumulative of left of laffer optimal tax strategies over…

It's really more that the (narrow, academic, theoretical) Laffer curve provided cover for the Reagan admin to cut taxes in the ways their backers wanted, but this is admittedly unproven AFAIK. But then there's the observable fact that the Reagan cuts weren't Laffer-optimal either (revenues went down, not up). It's not clear that there is a Laffer-optimal tax cut that can currently be made, but instead of making a case for that it has just become "centrist" dogma that lower taxes always increase growth and revenues, and are always optimal no matter the actual fiscal or economic situation.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#162

Post by bhelkey »

rayiner wrote: post #158
bhelkey wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your implication is that this is a private vs public spending problem, that's not it. Healthcare in the US (both private and public) costs dramatically more than in other developed countries. Why that is is a bit complicated and doesn't have a single root cause. It's also a bit tricky because every major component blames the other components for the total cost. Part of the problem (roughly 10% by one estimation I…

> If your implication is that this is a private vs public spending problem, that's not it. No, my point is that we couldn't achieve UK costs by doing "single payer." Our publicly funded systems, like schools and transit, are also cost-inefficient (public schools somewhat less so, public transmit somewhat more so).

Again, healthcare in the US is dramatically more expensive than in other countries. This is true for publicly funded healthcare (e.g. Medicare) and privately funded healthcare.

I already mentioned drug prices, another input in the cost of US healthcare is the cost of physician salaries. Physicians in the US are paid ~2x what physicians in the UK are paid [1].

One input to physician salaries is that we limited the number of new doctors by limiting the number of residency positions.

[1] https://www.physiciansweekly.com/post/how-do-us-physician-sa...

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#163

Post by rayiner »

bhelkey wrote: post #162
rayiner wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If your implication is that this is a private vs public spending problem, that's not it. No, my point is that we couldn't achieve UK costs by doing "single payer." Our publicly funded systems, like schools and transit, are also cost-inefficient (public schools somewhat less so, public transmit somewhat more so).

Again, healthcare in the US is dramatically more expensive than in other countries. This is true for publicly funded healthcare (e.g. Medicare) and privately funded healthcare. I already mentioned drug prices, another input in the cost of US healthcare is the cost of physician salaries. Physicians in the US are paid ~2x what physicians in the UK are paid [1]. One input to physician salaries is that we limited the num…

I'm not denying it's more expensive. I'm disagreeing with your premise that we could reach the cost effectiveness of European countries. Europe and America aren't interchangeable. You can't achieve the same results in each just by turning the policy knobs to the same settings.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#164

Post by rayiner »

ElevenLathe wrote: post #161
jmpman wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As much as people may dislike Regan, his goal for reducing taxes on the wealthy was based upon the laffer curve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve The hypothesis is that lowering taxes rates will actually increase government revenues. The Trump cuts don't feel like they're laffer optimal. Instead they feel like political capture by the wealthy class. A cumulative of left of laffer optimal tax strategies over…

It's really more that the (narrow, academic, theoretical) Laffer curve provided cover for the Reagan admin to cut taxes in the ways their backers wanted, but this is admittedly unproven AFAIK. But then there's the observable fact that the Reagan cuts weren't Laffer-optimal either (revenues went down, not up). It's not clear that there is a Laffer-optimal tax cut that can currently be made, but instead of making a cas…

I think the more interesting observation is that neither Clinton, nor Obama, nor Biden made any effort to roll back the biggest part of Reagan's tax cuts: reducing taxes on the middle class. That's quite remarkable, because that's the area where the U.S. diverges the most in tax policy from other western countries.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#165

Post by ben_w »

ericmay wrote: post #142
8note wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the talk of waste is in service of thw question "is the government well funded enough?" and so far it does not appear that reducing waste would properly fund the government? a couple patriot missiles worth is not the debt, and would not allow for much more efficient single payer health care - the single biggest opportunity the US government has to reduce waste in american society

Again you can do both - you can cut these wasteful programs, you can have a well-funded government that's already well-funded with trillions of dollars, and then also reform healthcare all without raising taxes. Use your imagination.

My imagination is indeed very capable of magical thinking.

However, if this was something that worked in the real world, we wouldn't be having this conversation because e.g. DOGE would have been successful.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#166

Post by rayiner »

thenewnewguy wrote: post #51
ModernMech wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right they (the politicians) don't actually think that, they just say that to get cooked projections. Once those revenue projections turn out to be false, it doesn't matter because they already have their tax cuts baked in. Then everyone can blame the other side for deficits and campaign on fixing it. Rinse and repeat.

Let's be clear and not do this both sides thing - by "they" we mean Republicans. You may not agree with their policies or what they want to spend money on, but Democrats (at least in aggregate) live in the real world where they acknowledge for the government to spend money they will have to raise taxes. Republicans are the only party that in the 21st century acts as though we can simultaneously cut taxes and increase…

Democrats absolutely do not "live in the real world" regarding taxes: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/19/medicare-...

"Taxing billionaires" is the left's version of "cut Medicaid fraud." It's a message for low-information voters who have a gut feeling that free stuff will require more taxes, but get confused converting from billions to trillions: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/06/msnbc-sug...

That's why Democrats say "we're the only developed western country without universal healthcare," but never "we're the only developed western country without a 15%+ VAT."

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#167

Post by throwawaypath »

beej71 wrote: post #102
throwawaypath wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm so glad we rearranged those deck chairs.

I'm so glad we have "main" instead of "master", "blocklist" instead of "blacklist", math is racist now, and we systemically discriminated against entire classes of people in the name of DEI.

Those deck chairs have had a lot of rearranging.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#168

Post by ben_w »

ericmay wrote: post #135
hvb2 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You made a general, pedestrian claim about spending I didn't do anything, that wasn't me. > You're not making a serious claim that we're overspending. This is the thread about debt to GDP ratio hitting 123%. I don't claim anything, but if this isn't overspending then I think we agree to disagree. > Not really. Most US debt is owed to Americans, and in the circumstances in which we're worried about some other countr…

> I didn't do anything, that wasn't me. Ok you're defending it. > I don't claim anything, but if this isn't overspending then I think we agree to disagree. Ok if it's over-spending then let's cut the programs that align with my ideology instead of cutting military spending. > You want to solve that with weapons?? That'll only make everyone drop the dollar, as simple as that. Not worried at all - those dollars become…

> Specifically in the case of economic warfare, Iran is losing badly. The worst outcome is some MAGA coal rollers have to pay more for gas. Iran's economy literally doesn't function due to our blockade (which means we also control the Strait of Hormuz). I'd rather pay extra at the pump (well I drive an EV but w/e) then have like 80% of my economy held hostage.

No, the worst outcome is Iran continues to mess up everyone else in the region until there's nothing left to damage, leading to:

  • $300+/barrel for a sustained period
  • US GDP falling 10%
  • 10-15% inflation overall, mostly in fuel, but also up to 30% in food
  • Unemployment reaching 12%
  • The Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits engineering limits (which happen well before "running out") in 1-2 months
I don't expect this to happen, because the US has allies who are not impotent. However, right now Iran seems to have the strategic and weapons (no really*) advantages vs. the USA that Ukraine has vs. Russia, so it is a risk worth taking seriously.

Also in the "however" list: you may hit the limits of the SPR anyway, just from the reduced supply through Hormuz. And the situation between Ukraine and Russia may do something like that to food all by itself that this would compound on top of.

* really cheap, making it possible to saturate target's defence

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#169

Post by quickthrowman »

ericmay wrote: post #142
8note wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the talk of waste is in service of thw question "is the government well funded enough?" and so far it does not appear that reducing waste would properly fund the government? a couple patriot missiles worth is not the debt, and would not allow for much more efficient single payer health care - the single biggest opportunity the US government has to reduce waste in american society

Again you can do both - you can cut these wasteful programs, you can have a well-funded government that's already well-funded with trillions of dollars, and then also reform healthcare all without raising taxes. Use your imagination.

That sounds nice in a perfectly spherical world but we live in reality.

Getting bogged down in line item spending is a trick politicians use to divide us. Net discretionary spending is only 27% of the budget, social security, Medicare, and military spending make up the other 73%. If you eliminated all discretionary spending, we’d still be running a budget deficit.

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