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The great wealth transfer reality check

usa.visa.com

11–20 of 120 posts

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#11

80% of the GDP over the next two decades will be siphoning money out of baby boomers (medical care, retirement homes, luxury cruises) before their children see a cent of it. Coupled with AI taking everyone's job, the end result is neo-feudalism where familial dynasties call all the shots.

not wrong

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#12

80% of the GDP over the next two decades will be siphoning money out of baby boomers (medical care, retirement homes, luxury cruises) before their children see a cent of it. Coupled with AI taking everyone's job, the end result is neo-feudalism where familial dynasties call all the shots.

That kind of spending is included under "retirement spending" in the article. They estimate that substantial amounts go to heirs after that, but mostly among the affluent.

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#13
post #2

Despite TFA coming from Visa, of all places, I found it to be a read worthy of my time. Basically, inheritances might not be as large as one might suspect, and the all that "inheritance spending lift" might already be happening (my parents are blowing my inheritance). I might take issue with the conclusion at the very bottom that GenX and Millenials are ahead of Boomers on a capital per-capita basis. That might be tr…

In many places you couldn't even buy "starter houses" like they had anymore. They wouldn't meet modern building codes. When people do manage to buy a house, it will likely be a nicer one.

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#14
post #2

Despite TFA coming from Visa, of all places, I found it to be a read worthy of my time. Basically, inheritances might not be as large as one might suspect, and the all that "inheritance spending lift" might already be happening (my parents are blowing my inheritance). I might take issue with the conclusion at the very bottom that GenX and Millenials are ahead of Boomers on a capital per-capita basis. That might be tr…

"my parents are blowing my inheritance". Really? It is their money, not yours. I think you mean, "my parents are spending down their savings."

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all households are as dysfunctional as the ones you described. And there's a reason why trust and wealth planning has becoming increasingly common. And while I am optimistic about AI's capabilities and am by no means an AI Luddite, assuming AI will take all jobs in the near future is ludicrous.

I think youre confusing "defacto" job loss and "replacement" job loss. Defacto job loss is: Your boss thinks you're replaceable with AI, and he fires you then puts the other workers implicitly responsible for your workload, _regardless of AI's capability. Replacement job loss: AI actually does 100% of your work load. Defacto jobloss is the insideous love child and will definitely accelerate because the "unwoke" mind…

[dead]

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#16
post #2

Despite TFA coming from Visa, of all places, I found it to be a read worthy of my time. Basically, inheritances might not be as large as one might suspect, and the all that "inheritance spending lift" might already be happening (my parents are blowing my inheritance). I might take issue with the conclusion at the very bottom that GenX and Millenials are ahead of Boomers on a capital per-capita basis. That might be tr…

It is a very good read. And my only difference in option is that I think Visa of all places would be very knowledgeable about spending and where it all goes.

They have an absolutely vast amount of information about how money flows in the economy, and an interest in finding out where it will flow in the future, and when.

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#17

80% of the GDP over the next two decades will be siphoning money out of baby boomers (medical care, retirement homes, luxury cruises) before their children see a cent of it. Coupled with AI taking everyone's job, the end result is neo-feudalism where familial dynasties call all the shots.

I had the same fears but even the boomers sitting on million dollar homes are being called “cash poor”.

You still need an income. You can only refinance so much, and then you’re paying off interest.

If your home 10x’s in value so does your property tax. Some people are paying $1500/mo. in property tax. They need a job just to cover it.

You can’t sell the house and cash out because you need that cash to buy the next house without having a huge monthly payment.

It’s not enough to just own assets. They have to be capitalized upon in some way - having a renter, building a farm, storage, or other business with it, and so-on.

But nobody is really doing that. I think boomers thought they would get rich off the real estate and it’s not really happening. All it did was make prices out of reach for the average person.

Super wealthy are buying homes at inflated prices which is interesting and surprising but they’re largely not boomers.

Dynasties calling shots maybe, probably. But what’s new?

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#18

80% of the GDP over the next two decades will be siphoning money out of baby boomers (medical care, retirement homes, luxury cruises) before their children see a cent of it. Coupled with AI taking everyone's job, the end result is neo-feudalism where familial dynasties call all the shots.

Not all households are as dysfunctional as the ones you described. And there's a reason why trust and wealth planning has becoming increasingly common. And while I am optimistic about AI's capabilities and am by no means an AI Luddite, assuming AI will take all jobs in the near future is ludicrous.

"Not all households are as dysfunctional as the ones you described".

This comment of course needs to be taken in the context of HN. In the wider world, we have literal tens of millions of people in the United States who are in poverty and experience daily hunger and deprivation.

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#19
post #14
post #2

Despite TFA coming from Visa, of all places, I found it to be a read worthy of my time. Basically, inheritances might not be as large as one might suspect, and the all that "inheritance spending lift" might already be happening (my parents are blowing my inheritance). I might take issue with the conclusion at the very bottom that GenX and Millenials are ahead of Boomers on a capital per-capita basis. That might be tr…

"my parents are blowing my inheritance". Really? It is their money, not yours. I think you mean, "my parents are spending down their savings."

I read that as an observation rather than commentary on who the money belongs to.

Re: The great wealth transfer reality check

#20
Gen X and millennials are ahead of boomers on per capita wealth at the same age

This runs counter to the popular media narrative of poor millennials, but it makes sense. Millennials rose a tailwind of surging stock prices since the '09 bottom, fat white-collar salaries (such as in tech, consulting, finance), and surging home pries, buoyed by cheap mortgages from 2010-2022 thanks to 14 years of near-zero interest rates.

Even when taking into account student loan debt, white-collar workers still earn much more compared to in the 70s-early 2000s. 6 figure salaries for white-collar jobs were uncommon even in the early 2000s whereas they are commonplace today.

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