Earlier quoted context omitted.
The link is right there, and the answer is in the first paragraph.
All I see is a paywall
The paywall does not cover the first paragraph
Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
61–70 of 190 posts
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#62I like how Matt Levine formulated it.
His thesis was correct. The problem is, his thesis was measured in years if not decades when his funding was measured in days and hours.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#63> Aschenbrenner party blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run. 4 years ago, it was SBF blaming Changpeng Zhao for shorting FTT and triggering a run on FTX. Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same argumen…
>Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026. his issue was getting margin called due to being short on software (which went up) and long on AI infra (which went down) - getting margin called != losing money.
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Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s truly the playbook when you are on the other side of a levered firm though.
Yeah, probably. Its too bad.
If there's any purpose in hedge funds as a structure it's that they provide liquidity for the market. So it's in everyone's best interest to let them do price discovery against each other.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#65> Aschenbrenner party blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run. 4 years ago, it was SBF blaming Changpeng Zhao for shorting FTT and triggering a run on FTX. Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same argumen…
>Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same arguments for why it happened.
I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees (and how much they were) he gathered over the last 3 years. Just the perf fees from 2025 are probably enough to set him up for life. If he reinvested not so great.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#66Where do I sign up to get $100M to dump into long AI positions?
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pardon for what? The crime of losing money?
Believe it or not, you are legally bound to act in the interests of shareholders. Though you cannot be pardoned from civil stuff, and the options to actually prosecute are pretty slim, so I doubt it. Though, even if this is just tongue-in-cheek, you can literally buy a pardon in America right now with just a little bit a money into the pockets of the Trump family, in case you didn't get the joke (that the US governme…
Believe it or not, you are legally bound to act in the interests of shareholders.
Though a common Internet trope, this is incorrect. However, “legally” or not, you might find yourself unemployed should you ignore the shareholders.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#68An inexperienced portfolio manager that’s never seen a down tech market in his life has created a massively leveraged position on frothy assets in a bubble and the bubble is looking ill. What could possibly go wrong.
Many of these AI plays are massively entangled and leveraged. It all looks good until it doesn’t and when there’s a hiccup things unravel quickly and exponentially. I fully expect in the next 12 months we’re going to see some rather spectacular investment implosions with folks losing their shirts. Get your popcorn ready.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#69Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#70Earlier on HN: Martin Shkreli breaks down the collapse of Situational Awareness - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49119380 Edit: added context
Why are you promoting content by Martin Shkreli? You know, the guy who committed securities fraud to rip off desperate patients?
He's an absolute ghoul, and to see sibling comments praising him breaks my heart. Yeah, he "did his time", but he also took advantage of sick people for immense profit. You don't get a pass for that.