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Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

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Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#501

Post by sciencejerk »

MostlyStable wrote: post #433
sciencejerk wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toddlers should learn to pick up their own toys...? Unless we're grooming them for a life of pampered self-absorbed entitlement?

This is one of those "tell me you don't have kids without telling me" situations. The process of teaching a kid to be a responsible human is long and arduous. If you expect a 2 and a half year old to successfully be picking up their toys, well, I don't know what to tell you. Go spend some time in a daycare, I guess. And of course, that's completely ignoring the fact that I also would like to not have to pick up my sh…

Eh, I actually do have kids, and like other North American children they usually don't pick up their toys. When things get messy enough, the "toy sheriff" comes into town and sets things straight. He's got a hat and a badge and a thick mean southern accent. Toys that aren't put away get locked in "jail" for indefinite time.

I won't lie, I don't do this often, and I end up picking up plenty of toys, and would welcome robot assistance, but it still seems wasteful and privileged to use advanced tech in this way

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#502

Post by si1entstill »

didibus wrote: post #384
si1entstill wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure. I think house cleaning/chores require at least a "part-time" job's work of work for the average household (especially with children). We may be atypical, but my partner and I don't want to hire out a cleaning service and deal with the whole human component. But, I think we'd gladly pay 15k+ if it allowed us to take on the additional gainful workload. Even at a 20k price tag, I suspect we would likely ha…

> We may be atypical, but my partner and I don't want to hire out a cleaning service and deal with the whole human component I kind of understand where the feeling comes from, but this also saddens me. What happened to our generation? We're scared of people.

Eh, I'm a pretty social and outgoing guy. I think its fair to have some reservations about people in one's own home. I'll admit I'm slightly neurotic in my own household in that I like things to be done a certain way. I'd also feel like I needed to maintain certain levels of tidiness to enable a traditional cleaning service to perform well.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#503

Post by si1entstill »

stef25 wrote: post #472
aantix wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people finance vehicles that cost much more than 20K. I'd gladly pay or finance a robot that could have dishes clean, laundry folded, and carpets vacuumed by the time our family got home.

So many people talking like cleaning services don't exist

> I don't want to hire out a cleaning service and deal with the whole human component.

I've used on in the past, but I found that I was routinely dissatisfied with how they were doing things and I felt I needed to maintain a certain level of tidiness to allow them to clean properly. I think there is an intrinsic cost to having hired staff in one's home that most consumers would be factoring in, consciously or not.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#504

Post by AndrewKemendo »

jhanschoo wrote: post #439
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea we got here through recognizing the bitter lesson is a description of reality and adopting techniques that exploit it The entire history of this field is precisely that problem and repeatedly demonstrated

I don't know how you can read my comment, not respond to my comment saying that today's self-driving cars use LIDAR, and continue to reiterate your point. I don't think I was clear and explicit, it being tedious to write, and I apologize for that. I also apologize for shifting the goalposts as I had not written out my own position, which is not exactly in the "grandparent commenter"'s position (that I had not previou…

Precisely how is the inclusion of LIDAR counter to the bitter lesson?

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#505

Post by si1entstill »

qurren wrote: post #118
si1entstill wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure. I think house cleaning/chores require at least a "part-time" job's work of work for the average household (especially with children). We may be atypical, but my partner and I don't want to hire out a cleaning service and deal with the whole human component. But, I think we'd gladly pay 15k+ if it allowed us to take on the additional gainful workload. Even at a 20k price tag, I suspect we would likely ha…

If you can even afford 20K you're in the top 10% of the US population. It's not a very big market, and even selling to that market is hard. Probably only 10% of that 10% will actually buy, and all of a sudden you're selling to 1%. Selling to businesses is much easier, 99% of businesses can afford 200K if it replaces 3 x 70K humans.

The median working American earns something like 60k. Part time working adults are around 24k.

People might not have 20k in the bank, but if most are doing a part-time employment's worth of work which could be replaced by a machine, it would make sense on paper.

Granted, people aren't rational. Anecdotally, my partner and I probably could be hiring out some of this currently, but we choose not to as we don't want to have to work around a cleaning service's schedule. I think we'd be more apt to buy something which we own, have control over, always does things in the manner we'd like, doesn't have to work around our messy lives/schedules, etc.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#506

Post by AndrewKemendo »

nl wrote: post #477
jhanschoo wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not talking about the state of today's self-driving cars, I'm talking about how we got to here. Also don't forget the overarching claim regarding lack of sensor and actuator fidelity in the parent comment; self-driving cars in contrast have expensive LIDAR in them and we still don't think camera-based self-driving cars are safe enough.

Using LIDAR is of course the perfect example of the bitter lesson. More data makes for better outcomes.

Precisely, and quite confusing why that isn’t obvious

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#507

Post by AndrewKemendo »

qsera wrote: post #500
jryle70 wrote: post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Make some thing that work in very limited of amount of real world cases > 2. Deploy it somewhere where it won't encounter things it won't handle Who are doing these? Waymo? how? You're talking BS if you can't elaborate.

Of course it will appear BS to you. That is why it works.

Why couldn’t this trick be pulled off two decades ago?

After all autonomous vehicles has been well funded research since the 1980s the DARPA grand challenge being one of the previously most important benchmarks.

I think you might just need a history lesson friend

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#508

Post by dormento »

lukan wrote: post #493
margalabargala wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but others have the opposite preference. Machines tend to be more predictable.

"Machines tend to be more predictable." Those controlled by LLM's maybe ain't. Here with google the LLM is even local, but will be fun with the cloud controlled robots, where the company got overwhelmed and silently uses a weaker model at certain times. With fun results.

Dreading the moment my doombot engages dishwasher-v4-flash:latest_q2

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#509

Post by aantix »

stef25 wrote: post #472
aantix wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people finance vehicles that cost much more than 20K. I'd gladly pay or finance a robot that could have dishes clean, laundry folded, and carpets vacuumed by the time our family got home.

So many people talking like cleaning services don't exist

I'd want cleaning to happen every day during the week/

Probably $80/day for someone to do everything I want done. 20 days a month.

$1,600/month.

It'd take two years, and the robot has paid for itself.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#510

Post by underlipton »

nsvd2 wrote: post #135
qurren wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can even afford 20K you're in the top 10% of the US population. It's not a very big market, and even selling to that market is hard. Probably only 10% of that 10% will actually buy, and all of a sudden you're selling to 1%. Selling to businesses is much easier, 99% of businesses can afford 200K if it replaces 3 x 70K humans.

Actually the high income households are becoming a greater and greater share of spending, referred to as the "K shaped" economy. For example, the top quintile of households accounts for about 40% of all consumer spending.

But they only need so many robot housekeepers. And their standards are going to be higher than the average consumer's. If you're targeting that demo, slumming it with a $20k robot won't do; with the performance, bespoke service and maintenance, and other considerations, might as well bump up to $100k or more. But, in the current zeitgeist, you're not making an aspirational product, you're just creating another icon of class warfare that turns off the consumers you were hoping to eventually reach.
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