141–150 of 178 posts
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But who needs SOTA models, really? It was necessary 10 months ago, but now?
All things equal, let's say your SaaS startup uses GPT 5.0 (release 10 months ago) and my business uses Fable 5. We have the same business goals, same talent level, same strategies. I think the chance of my business winning against yours is higher. I can't prove it. It's just my opinion.
Opus 4.5 vs Fable 5? i think the output difference will be negligible, and the opportunity cost of paying an order of magnitude more will actually benefit my business.
A while ago I was thinking, “Gee, AI is so complicated, how can I keep up with the landscape?” After reading these articles go by so often, it feels like what I actually can’t keep up with is the bond market. To paraphrase Trotsky, you may not be interested in the bond market, but the bond market is interested in you. I want to be able to read the signals at the bottom of this article, and divine some kind of predict…
As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it. By the time you have read this article, the professionals and their computers will have digested that material a thousand times over and have priced it in. To be more precise: buy the lowest cost most diversified index fund you can buy and then hold it. If you want to spend some smarts to get a better return: look at how to minimise taxes an…
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> Gee, AI is so complicated, how can I keep up with the landscape? The interesting thing is: you do not need to keep up. It’s actually way easier and cheaper to wait a bit for the chaos to stabilize, then learn to use the tools. You don’t need to have been someone who experienced the whole evolution, non stop at the edge. It’s ok to let the enthusiasts discover how things work and eventually learn from them. Just lik…
This is the way. You can jump in and out at any time and let everybody else wear the pain of working it out.
Must be a mix of decades of corporate branding in software and the erosion of trust in the labor market coupled with the rise in noise from various sources...
Skills are what they always have been. Logical thinking, good memory, long attention span, critical thinking, communication (the ancient Mediterranean, the culture which forged the currently dominant "West", valued 'rhetoric' almost above everything else besides physical prowess)
Being well connected, having a sharp mind, cultivating deep knowledge of science, philosophy, language, mathematics. These things are timeless. Using the current brand of software well is a moot point. Software can only become dominant if it falls in line with mainstream design. Learn design, you can intuit how to use relevant software and the badly design tools will be weeded out naturally.
In a nutshell, exercise body and mind. Be strong, cultivate strong relationships. Everything else is just background noise.
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> By the time you have read this article, the professionals and their computers will have digested that material a thousand times over and have priced it in. I think you overestimate traders. What we call smart money is very often really, really dumb from a macro perspective. Professional traders believe hype and follow trends. There is still at least 2 thesis playing out at the moment for the AI trade, and you don’t…
The average professional trader might not be that smart, who knows. But: (A) I am not confident I am smarter than the average professional trader here. (B) You don't need to win against the average professional trader: you need to win against the smartest ones. And: I'm not so sure I am smarter than the average professional trader anyway. About your theses: my null hypothesis is that these things are already priced i…
That being said I would really not recommend people who don't have money and time to lose to actively invest. It's a fun hobby and can be pretty profitable, but not for everyone
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Most people mean this to say that 1 trillion is a lot of money, but it still comes back to what you believe AI is- in hindsight, does 1 trillion dollars to build the internet sound like a lot or a little? (That is, spending 1 year of USA's defense budget to get the entire internet) It comes back to your perception of what AI is because to people who say AI is glorified auto-complete won't believe that the money is wo…
I'm not going to make a prediction of what will happen with AI whether it will autocomplete / productivity or AGI. I will say it seems to be trending towards former than the latter just by how scaled down the promises have become over the last year (we went from curing all disease and cancer / post-scarcity to productivity and code.) The amounts being spent on this can only really justified by some paradigm shifting…
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As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it. By the time you have read this article, the professionals and their computers will have digested that material a thousand times over and have priced it in. To be more precise: buy the lowest cost most diversified index fund you can buy and then hold it. If you want to spend some smarts to get a better return: look at how to minimise taxes an…
How does 'the market' properly set prices if everyone blindly buying the same things without any discriminators?
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Good that you made the comparison with defense budget because it's becoming evident that AI is the new "nuclear bomb". First, if you have more advanced AI than your opponent, you just hack them and the war is over before it began. I'm simplifying obviously, but the point that AI is essential to modern warfare stands. Second, even during peacetime, you can use AI to directly influence what people think, what they do,…
That could all be true, but the problem is however powerful it is, it still needs to make money for the people who invested in it who are expecting a return. The stock valuations, the bonds yields - they don't care about the power of a nuclear bomb. They want to get paid. They expect to get paid. And if they don't get what they are expecting, there will be hell to pay in the economy. There's a probably a good reason…
After all, at the end of the day, money is just a tool to motivate people. If you have other ways to motivate them (manipulation via AI, or just a brute force facilitated via AI), you don't need money any more. You just have to make sure there is nobody else with access to such AI.
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I would imagine Anthropic et al. are largely leasing land/buildings, so as the other commenter said… must be the server racks that are acting as collateral (if anything). Generally enterprise hardware depreciates very harshly. I’m used to paying $10 for Intel Xeons that once retailed for over $5,000. I expect to pick up some NVIDIA Blackwell 6000s for $100 each someday.
We are in odd times however - I for one am sitting on paper profits on the consumer gpu I bought 2 years ago. If anyone goes down before the supply side is fixed - the first to fall will probably be able to liquidate their gpus at a profit.