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The End of an Era

hughhowey.com

51–60 of 480 posts

Re: The End of an Era

#51
post #24

Is there a cap on AI intelligence? Is it just a case of throwing more and more resources at a pattern recognition machine with no upper limit except the energy of the universe and the economy of the algorithms? Someone else suggested the maximum intelligence is capped as the average intelligence of its training data, which is an interesting take.

The cap will be reached when LLMs run out of original material to train on and the large majority of their training material is AI generated content.

Re: The End of an Era

#52
post #42
post #10

This is a well-known author, but how come he thinks AI is better at writing? AI writing makes me vomit. Also, I think he's too enthusiastic about the future of readers. In my opinion, reading books will be a very rare hobby pretty soon. The decline started more than 10 years ago.

[flagged]

A small puke comes close in the times I noticed.

Re: The End of an Era

#53
I wonder how concerned writers and publishers are about copyright of AI written text? As I understand it, in a lot of jurisdictions, AI products are not covered by copyright.

If my understanding is close to correct, than I can see why the million dollar advance was withdrawn.

Re: The End of an Era

#54
post #37
post #4

LLMs are writing as well as humans for people who think writing words is the goal. Printing presses also write words better than humans. LLMs are solving the problem one layer higher than printing presses, but still several layers down from the top. Note that LLMs aren't useless, since they have other strengths which can make them equal or better than humans in certain applications. For instance, they can tirelessly…

I’d be interested to know what you think the “several layers” above a system that solves open mathematical problems in an afternoon, and writes entire operating systems from scratch, are.

I think that the point he’s getting at is the human experience.

Re: The End of an Era

#55
post #37
post #4

LLMs are writing as well as humans for people who think writing words is the goal. Printing presses also write words better than humans. LLMs are solving the problem one layer higher than printing presses, but still several layers down from the top. Note that LLMs aren't useless, since they have other strengths which can make them equal or better than humans in certain applications. For instance, they can tirelessly…

I’d be interested to know what you think the “several layers” above a system that solves open mathematical problems in an afternoon, and writes entire operating systems from scratch, are.

Go ask an LLM to "do something with 1M tokens".

Re: The End of an Era

#56
post #24

Is there a cap on AI intelligence? Is it just a case of throwing more and more resources at a pattern recognition machine with no upper limit except the energy of the universe and the economy of the algorithms? Someone else suggested the maximum intelligence is capped as the average intelligence of its training data, which is an interesting take.

François Chollet made an interesting geometric analogy on Twitter. We tend to view Intelligence as something unbounded, like the height of a pole. But it could be something closer to the roundness of a polished sphere. Once close to the limit, incremental improvements are less and less significant.

The intuition we have about the nature of cognition and its whole shape and limits is almost entirely built by looking at ourselves and our peers, comparing that to an ant. I feel this is largely naive and misguided.

Re: The End of an Era

#57
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d be interested to know what you think the “several layers” above a system that solves open mathematical problems in an afternoon, and writes entire operating systems from scratch, are.

Go ask an LLM to "do something with 1M tokens".

I think that is a bad argument.

You could ask a human to "do something with 1M dollars" and get garbage too.

Re: The End of an Era

#58
post #42
post #10

This is a well-known author, but how come he thinks AI is better at writing? AI writing makes me vomit. Also, I think he's too enthusiastic about the future of readers. In my opinion, reading books will be a very rare hobby pretty soon. The decline started more than 10 years ago.

[flagged]

That's true, but I can still tell if a big article was mostly written by AI.

The author talks about writing cheap stories, but right now, you can't do this. Cheap stories are pretty bad, because there is very little human effort to polish them. The more effort you put into AI written stories, the better they become, but it's not cheap at all. You have to rewrite and review them.

Re: The End of an Era

#59
post #25

Writing for the love of art, besides being a mental and reflective exercise that holds real value when it is of high quality, makes it hard for me to believe that this is the end of literature. It is difficult to think that someone who writes for pleasure would abandon it simply because of the exponential volume of AI-generated text.

> holds real value when it is of high quality

Does it? This assumption is the core of the entire problem.

It might do as some, bluntly, self indulgent exercise but beyond that in society scarcity of things other people need and want is what drives value.

We are in for an absolutely huge rebalancing of what it is that is considered valuable.

Re: The End of an Era

#60
post #4

LLMs are writing as well as humans for people who think writing words is the goal. Printing presses also write words better than humans. LLMs are solving the problem one layer higher than printing presses, but still several layers down from the top. Note that LLMs aren't useless, since they have other strengths which can make them equal or better than humans in certain applications. For instance, they can tirelessly…

Huh that is an interesting metaphor. A next higher layer printing press?

> Huh that is an interesting metaphor. A next higher layer printing press?

A printing press that does the thinking for you.

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