The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling

Post by enraged_camel » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:03 AM UTC

deepsun wrote: post #25

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

> This is all being exacerbated by the disastrous war in Iran No, why? US is an exporter, not importer of oil, so any price increase of crude oil is good for US. Maybe not consumers, but government (Venezuela had literal amine while exporting a lot of oil and honoring all of the international debt payments). So US must have more money to service its international debt.

Post by jquery » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC

miohtama wrote: post #30

Reuters attributes this to be somehow a personal flaw in Walsh. Pretty sure Jerome Powell, the previous chair, would have done exactly the same thing. In fact Jerome Powell is still in the Fed and participated in this decision.

Post by fjfaase » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:10 AM UTC

Panzer04 wrote: post #11

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

American fixed 30y mortgages actually make interest rate policy much less effective, in theory. In most countries with normal mortgages, raising rates fairly immediately transmits through to the rest of the economy, because it affects the mortgage market. This isn't true in America, because everyone quite reasonably is able to get these insane mortgage products with literally no downside risk - if rates go up, you do…

Post by RealityVoid » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:18 AM UTC

deepsun wrote: post #25

jmyeet wrote: post #2

As everyone should know by now, the US government runs a massive deficit, that is the difference between tax receipts (and other income) minus expenses. The current US public debt is hovering around $40T and the annual deficit is pushing toards $2T. A lot of that $40T was borrowed at lower interest rates but let's assume for argument's sake that it was borrowed at 5%. That's $2T in interest alone every year. There's…

> This is all being exacerbated by the disastrous war in Iran No, why? US is an exporter, not importer of oil, so any price increase of crude oil is good for US. Maybe not consumers, but government (Venezuela had literal amine while exporting a lot of oil and honoring all of the international debt payments). So US must have more money to service its international debt.

Post by itake » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 6:19 AM UTC

jmyeet wrote: post #8

bayarearefugee wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And somehow this situation is all Joe Biden's fault, and Trump is still going to fix it, any day now. A very significant amount of American voters believe this. To this day. And their belief in this is still being reinforced by the vast majority of the "mainstream media" which they believe is left-biased, which hasn't been true for very many years at this point. This is why we are fucked and there is no way out of th…

I understand the point you're making about blind devotion to Trump but the reality is that Biden is not free from blame here, in four ways: 1. Trump in his first term created the Abraham Accords that directly contributed to the genocide that has since happened (by excluding Palestinians from the process). Biden did not reverse any of that because he is an avowed Zionist; 2. Trump blew up the JCPOA that sought to incl…