I remember when Amazon was going to go broke every year for over a decade. Until they didn't.
I remember when hundreds of dotcom companies were going to go broke, and they all did.
Not sure what your point is.
The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
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Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#12Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don’t forget there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated. The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse. I think it is too early to make predictions with AI. I mean the sentiment here is either it will dry up the world and kill us all or transcend humanity, there’s no gray area. I don’t want to fall into the emot…
What’s weird is how emotional people get on this. I told publicly (because I was asked, not out of an obligation to have an opinion), that the prices we pay for LLMs are likely to go up because that’s what happens when the ratio of operational assets to foreign capital drops due to the capital having been turned into heat rather than operational assets. The grief I got from people, dear Lord…
I think that opinion is as reasonable as any. I feel compelled to argue against it (I even thought out the arguments in my head!) but my compulsion to have an opinion on HN is a disease, and you made a point of saying that you gave the opinion because asked.
Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don’t forget there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated. The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse. I think it is too early to make predictions with AI. I mean the sentiment here is either it will dry up the world and kill us all or transcend humanity, there’s no gray area. I don’t want to fall into the emot…
That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that…
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Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that…
What’s your reasoning for saying that the spending level requires that level of justification?
I think these large numbers are casually thrown about, but the real meaning is mind boggling. 1 trillion dollars is the entire US defense budget - aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, health care, salaries, stealth fighters ect. The hidden AI debt alone is more than that https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-gia... just for five tech giants (not to mention all the other smaller players like neoclouds)
Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#15Warren Buffet way
Revolutionary technology + massive adoption ≠ good investment
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by the growth and glamour of the industry. The airline industry since its birth has had a collective net loss, in aggregate, despite moving hundreds of millions of people.
Commodity Product, no switching costs. Infinite competition
Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#16you won't get debt if you don't have assets that can be repossessed, so having debt means these AI companies have assets: that's a strong thing, not a weak thing. interest rates are what they are, and they go up and down for reasons exogenous to your industry; debt regardless of interest is always "cheaper" than equity, and the shareholders expect to make their money from equity, paying interest on debt as a type of…
Yes, they have assets: GPUs sitting in datacenters, and data.
Question is: is that worth enough to cover the debt after the market crashed?
Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#17I remember when Amazon was going to go broke every year for over a decade. Until they didn't.
That’s because they were reinvesting the profits. I think they had given a profitable quarter just to show that they could do it.
Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#18you won't get debt if you don't have assets that can be repossessed, so having debt means these AI companies have assets: that's a strong thing, not a weak thing. interest rates are what they are, and they go up and down for reasons exogenous to your industry; debt regardless of interest is always "cheaper" than equity, and the shareholders expect to make their money from equity, paying interest on debt as a type of…
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Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#19you won't get debt if you don't have assets that can be repossessed, so having debt means these AI companies have assets: that's a strong thing, not a weak thing. interest rates are what they are, and they go up and down for reasons exogenous to your industry; debt regardless of interest is always "cheaper" than equity, and the shareholders expect to make their money from equity, paying interest on debt as a type of…
I would imagine Anthropic et al. are largely leasing land/buildings, so as the other commenter said… must be the server racks that are acting as collateral (if anything). Generally enterprise hardware depreciates very harshly. I’m used to paying $10 for Intel Xeons that once retailed for over $5,000. I expect to pick up some NVIDIA Blackwell 6000s for $100 each someday.
Re: The AI trade now runs on borrowed money, and the lenders are repricing it
#20you won't get debt if you don't have assets that can be repossessed, so having debt means these AI companies have assets: that's a strong thing, not a weak thing. interest rates are what they are, and they go up and down for reasons exogenous to your industry; debt regardless of interest is always "cheaper" than equity, and the shareholders expect to make their money from equity, paying interest on debt as a type of…
I agree with the general sentiment, but I feel like it is also a bit reductive. Assets in this space are near impossible to evaluate and can fluctuate in value greatly based on other actors. In a hypothetical scenario where, say, google releases a new frontier model that somehow leapfrogs the competition by 5 months all of a sudden the value of the Asset of Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 might completely crater.