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Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

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Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly: why?

With a robot housemaid, I wouldn't have to get dressed. :-P More seriously: - I wouldn't feel obligated to 'pre-clean' anything. Who wants to come across as a thoughtless/careless slob whose personal habits amount to borderline-abusive demands on the cleaning staff? Not me... and where does that line get drawn, anyway? - I wouldn't worry about stuff being picked up and misplaced - I have never had problems with maids…

The last point I can get behind as it is a clear advantage, the other ones might need some more superhuman abilities that I'd not accept as given until demonstrated in extenso.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#182
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a robot housemaid, I wouldn't have to get dressed. :-P More seriously: - I wouldn't feel obligated to 'pre-clean' anything. Who wants to come across as a thoughtless/careless slob whose personal habits amount to borderline-abusive demands on the cleaning staff? Not me... and where does that line get drawn, anyway? - I wouldn't worry about stuff being picked up and misplaced - I have never had problems with maids…

> With a robot housemaid, I wouldn't have to get dressed. :-P Well, as long as you don't mind the workers in the robot company's telemetrics department whacking it to your robot's video feed.

They can jerk themselves silly, IDGAF. When the 'Black Mirror' screenwriters get involved, though, I'll require some back-end participation of the financial kind.

(I'm being facetious here: nothing that transmits data out of the house is going to be deployed to run household robots, at least not in my house. Even if I didn't care, I can't make that call on behalf of family members or guests. Then there's the obvious concern that the robotics company would sell the data to my homeowners' insurance company, health insurance company, and who knows who else.)

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#183
post #40
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For house keeping tasks the robotics companies love showing off... it honestly doesn't matter if it takes a robot longer than a human to clean your house. As long as it gets done before you get home from work, no big deal.

I'm bearish that they'll be economically viable in the house for a very long time. For businesses the bar for adoption is very low: If the thing can work repetitive jobs for 24 hours a day and replace 3 shifts, the purchase bar is nominally anything less than 3 x human salary if your budgeting horizon is 1 year. That's a high number, and probably fairly easy to achieve. For homes, it's a very different bar. You'd hav…

You never know the future but imagine the people who were bearish on personal computers when it wasn't a thing yet but was being discussed. Imagine Email, Internet etc etc. Now they are commodities. I am sure one day AI Robots will be a commodity that we could buy for $1000. May be 10 years from now. But it is coming.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#184
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ballpark 5k/year How big is your house? When we had a cleaning lady it was $70 a go. Under $2000 for every second week.

I have a 1300 sqft house, 3b2b. Costs me around $200 for a cleaning.

Similar here for 2500 finished sq ft.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#185
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure. I think house cleaning/chores require at least a "part-time" job's work of work for the average household (especially with children). We may be atypical, but my partner and I don't want to hire out a cleaning service and deal with the whole human component. But, I think we'd gladly pay 15k+ if it allowed us to take on the additional gainful workload. Even at a 20k price tag, I suspect we would likely ha…

If you can even afford 20K you're in the top 10% of the US population. It's not a very big market, and even selling to that market is hard. Probably only 10% of that 10% will actually buy, and all of a sudden you're selling to 1%. Selling to businesses is much easier, 99% of businesses can afford 200K if it replaces 3 x 70K humans.

Your napkin math only shows that the market is identical. There's about 35m businesses operating in the US. So by selling to 10% of those you sell the exact same number of robots...

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#186
post #145
post #133

While Anthropic and Open AI get 80% of the attention here, it's impressive to see how much Google is doing: near frontier model, fast models, open weight models, image generation, video generation, music generation, robotics, etc.

[flagged]

It's way too early to pick winners. This industry is still in the opening moves.

For example, today, investors are celebrating Microsoft's Azure growth as evidence that its AI investments are paying off: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110965>

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#187
post #133

While Anthropic and Open AI get 80% of the attention here, it's impressive to see how much Google is doing: near frontier model, fast models, open weight models, image generation, video generation, music generation, robotics, etc.

And protein folding + Nobel Prize

And AlphaGo Zero .. probably the first real-world deployment of a self-improving system that beat humans.

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#189
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You'd have a hard time convincing most American families to purchase anything with a >$1000 price tag. Like cars, they'll likely purchase them through finance deals, with a monthly payment. Or perhaps even rent/lease them.

Cars are an absolute necessity in the US unless you live in one of the small handful of cities that have viable public transit. Different thing altogether. Robots aren't a necessity, and for a price tag in the tens of thousands, most people will just mop their own floors and do their own laundry.

$45k cars are not neccessary though, and that's the average american car loan today

Re: Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

#190
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm bearish that they'll be economically viable in the house for a very long time. For businesses the bar for adoption is very low: If the thing can work repetitive jobs for 24 hours a day and replace 3 shifts, the purchase bar is nominally anything less than 3 x human salary if your budgeting horizon is 1 year. That's a high number, and probably fairly easy to achieve. For homes, it's a very different bar. You'd hav…

Robot lawnmowers are mostly over $1000 already and they only do one thing. Heck, a lot of lawnmowers are over $1000. You can pay over $500 for an automatic cat litter box. Robot vacuums can be cheap but run to $600 or so. Household appliances is a robust sector where people have a proven track record of spending a lot of money.

It is all about the ROI. A lawn cut from a professional can cost anywhere from $25-$100 on an average (per cut). So with a $1000 lawn mower, you will get the return back in 10-40 cuts at most. That is less than 1-2 seasons. Sure, there will be some maintenance cost over the years but if you look at a 5-10 year period, it is totally worth doing your own. Even with the $1000 price tag. Of course, you cannot count the labor time.
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