Oh no, no one saw it coming. Oh well, anyway. Let’s argue about SQL vs NoSQL again. I miss that.
Tabs vs. Spaces!!!
After the AI Crash
151–160 of 244 posts
Re: After the AI Crash
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
Never thought I'd see the ycombinator peeps deny the existence of the Luddite mindset, but here we are.
It's more a post GamerGate understanding of a nerds vs the world narrative framing
The death of Harambe and Cecil the lion ruined the whole world and directly lead to GamerGate/Trump and world wise ride in right wing populaism.
Re: After the AI Crash
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
> absolutely no way to stop it. Unless if they take down the flat rate subs and you have to pay api prices, usage will drop a lot. Right now I freelance using gpt, if I had to pay api prices I'd probably lose 50% of the income, if not more, with the ~40% tax on top I might as well spend my time doing something else
I don't necessarily buy that API prices represent "real" prices of the models.
Yes, they are ludicrously profitable - even when future training costs are taken into account!
Re: After the AI Crash
#154AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.
It can't 'learn' on its own. Models only get better with mountains of RnD for data, training, and lots of fine tuning.
So the moment investment dries up, models stop improving.
However, it's likely we'll get good 80/20 solutions where you get most of the performance of the then-unsustainable high end models for significantly less compute.
Re: After the AI Crash
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apparently you haven't either and you're trying to weasel out for the church because it wasn't the only reason they executed him. It amazes me that it's okay to have an invisible friend based on 2,000 to 4000-year-old writings by goat herders high on psilocybin, but if you form a parasocial attachment to an AI, that's AI psychosis. ELI5 please?
I'm not your therapist, take this question to them. And I'm not trying to weasel out of anything. You asserted that, in the past, merely claiming that the Earth revolves around the Sun was met with getting burned at the stake by a mob of priests foaming at the mouth. I corrected that, because it's a myth. Please stop sneering at centuries/millenia-old people compared to whom you live like a king, and find another gro…
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Re: After the AI Crash
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?
Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see everything that was needed for two guys to bet with their own money. It’s likely to be bumpy for all but stay the course with diversified strategy. The .com bust and 2008 are just blips a…
> Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see everything that was needed for two guys to bet with their own money.
Do you base your knowledge on anything other than a very mediocre movie?
If an "investor" believes the market will sell off drastically, there are many, many ways they can express that bet in the open market. They can short index futures, buy put options, long volatility... so many options that depend only on the thesis being right. It does not sound as sexy as "look kid, the billionaires rigged the system!", but it's true.
Re: After the AI Crash
#157It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for that eventuality before things are allowed to blow. It’s been a dramatic shift these last six months but everywhere I look now folks are quietly preparing their battle armor to su…
this is a free fiat printining era. you fiction eating people will not realize that they can and will print T$ for years to save all and they are already printing too.
seriously, how hard is to get this? finance changed in 2020/21 forever. fiat printing level size several times bigger than all money total before
Re: After the AI Crash
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
> what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash Junior programmers will be in demand again. Someone will have to fix the mountains of vibe coded technical debt.
I've already seen an instance of a junior developer being completely unable to fix vibe coded technical debt, even with guidance, because AI analysis is fundamental to how they understand code and they're unable to comprehend what's happening when the AI analysis is not right.
Yes, not using AI will be a big competitive advantage for junior programmers.
Re: After the AI Crash
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?
Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see everything that was needed for two guys to bet with their own money. It’s likely to be bumpy for all but stay the course with diversified strategy. The .com bust and 2008 are just blips a…
As well, I have a feeling that market dynamics have evolved a tad since 2008, from the influx of retail investors (redditors, if you will) who seem keen to "buy the dip" on general principle. So, who knows how poorly a short position on the wrong instrument or at the wrong time can even land.
Re: After the AI Crash
#160It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for that eventuality before things are allowed to blow. It’s been a dramatic shift these last six months but everywhere I look now folks are quietly preparing their battle armor to su…
How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?
Have a read of Jeremy Grantham’s book. Seeing bubbles is reasonably easy. Forecasting when they pop and when to get out is very hard.
For example GMO as at the end of April were forecasting through the bubble that returns for large US equities would be negative over the next seven years. But since then the market has gone up by over 30%.
It could pop any day, or could grow for two more years.
Advice is to diversify your investments and make sure you avoid systemic risks. Read books by value investors.