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After the AI Crash

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Re: After the AI Crash

#131

Post by zero_shift »

anonymous_sorry wrote: post #119
zero_shift wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have human intelligence. Creating new humans is easy (and fun) The only reason to emulate human intelligence is to capture it, exploit it, and reduce the negotiating power of those who have it naturally. Anyone who wants this is not a friend of human beings

I do mostly agree with you, but... > Creating new humans is easy If you did a survey I suspect agreement with this statement would be rather bimodal.

That's fair. It starts easy, then gets difficult.

Re: After the AI Crash

#132

Post by LogicFailsMe »

heaney-555 wrote: post #82
joshstrange wrote: post #34

> Most new technologies have been welcomed by the public with open arms. I'm not going to predict how this is going to turn out in either direction but this statement gives me pause. I don't think that's ever been true. Yes, the siren song is strong but initially most new tech is met with skepticism. Are we so quick to forget "the internet/computers are just a fad"-type thinking?

Exactly, it's utter nonsense. The general public thought the first bicycles, automobiles, computers, mobile phones, smart watches, and AirPods were stupid. And now they are normal. Same with video games and dating apps.

I lived it. I had a teacher in high school continually scold me for reading books on programming languages and banned me from writing essays on the future of computers. Apparently, I should have been outside getting my ass kicked by the jocks like any normal kid would be. Why the guy even called up my parents to express his concerns about me. Or there was the time my 2nd grade teacher contacted my parents because I wasreading Run Silent, Run Deep during my submarine phase because that was a book for adolescents, not children. Mel Brooks wrote it best...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYTQ7__NNDI

Re: After the AI Crash

#133

Post by lubujackson »

vrganj wrote: post #72
cmiles8 wrote: post #35

It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for that eventuality before things are allowed to blow. It’s been a dramatic shift these last six months but everywhere I look now folks are quietly preparing their battle armor to su…

How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?

Be careful if you expect a dot com fallout - that was retail investor driven and took a long time to unwind as people sat through painful drops. Ai is much more of a private investment bubble. AI remains useful. What is likely to go away (and all at once) is investment and free rides/discounts.

So I expect more of a sobering process for AI companies rather than a blowup, simply because they all still will have cash in the bank and some have actual products with clients that make use of them.

Re: After the AI Crash

#134

Post by bsza »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #127
bsza wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People weren’t as ignorant back then as you think. They had very good reason to reject heliocentrism, namely that constellations don’t grow and shrink in size as the earth moves around. That, they said, would require the universe to be unimaginably big and empty, much more so than any other observation they could make at the time would suggest. If you have the time, I recommend reading Pliny’s Natural History. I thin…

Tell that to Giordano Bruno.

You haven’t even bothered to look up what actually got him executed, have you.

Re: After the AI Crash

#135

Post by LogicFailsMe »

bsza wrote: post #134
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to Giordano Bruno.

You haven’t even bothered to look up what actually got him executed, have you.

Apparently you haven't either and you're trying to weasel out for the church because it wasn't the only reason they executed him. It amazes me that it's okay to have an invisible friend based on 2,000 to 4000-year-old writings by goat herders high on psilocybin, but if you form a parasocial attachment to an AI, that's AI psychosis. ELI5 please?

Re: After the AI Crash

#136

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #132
heaney-555 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, it's utter nonsense. The general public thought the first bicycles, automobiles, computers, mobile phones, smart watches, and AirPods were stupid. And now they are normal. Same with video games and dating apps.

I lived it. I had a teacher in high school continually scold me for reading books on programming languages and banned me from writing essays on the future of computers. Apparently, I should have been outside getting my ass kicked by the jocks like any normal kid would be. Why the guy even called up my parents to express his concerns about me. Or there was the time my 2nd grade teacher contacted my parents because I w…

When ecommerce was getting big, I knew a number of people who thought it was absurd. You can't just send money over the Internet, hackers will steal it! You should use normal payment methods, like writing "fifteen dollars and 56/100------" on a special piece of paper the bank gave you.

Re: After the AI Crash

#137

Post by la64710 »

Marha01 wrote: post #86
zero_shift wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have human intelligence. Creating new humans is easy (and fun) The only reason to emulate human intelligence is to capture it, exploit it, and reduce the negotiating power of those who have it naturally. Anyone who wants this is not a friend of human beings

> Creating new humans is easy (and fun) This could not be further from the truth. Creating a new educated, competent human takes ~25 years, and significant costs and resources. AGI can be just copy-pasted at essentially no cost. Even a robot that is mass-produced for tens of thousands of dollars is still much less expensive and takes much less time to make than a competent human.

But it is more than just fun , it gives purpose to our existence … pardon me but it is idiotic to look at bringing up a child so objectively.

Re: After the AI Crash

#138

Post by potsandpans »

vrganj wrote: post #72
cmiles8 wrote: post #35

It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for that eventuality before things are allowed to blow. It’s been a dramatic shift these last six months but everywhere I look now folks are quietly preparing their battle armor to su…

How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?

Not financial advice.

The most straightforward thing to do that would have saved you in 2008, 2000 (and even 1929 to some extent), is to limit debt exposure and have enough cash sitting around so you don't have to sell your positions.

People who held (and invested more during the low points) did just fine. The people who got hurt the most were in a position where they had to sell (their 401k, their house etc) for a loss.

When a crash happens, it's a buyers market. In some ways it's a transfer of wealth to the top.

The problem is, timing the crash is impossible. Inflation chews into your cash portfolio, that could've been used to grow wealth.

Edit

There are of course more complex financial instruments. And they're interesting, but essentially amount to gambling. Holding short positions on sectors/companies is a zero sum game. As a retailer, you're betting against firms that have a lot of money and insider knowledge. Even if the thesis is correct, it has to be correct at the right moment.

Re: After the AI Crash

#139

Post by Marha01 »

la64710 wrote: post #137
Marha01 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Creating new humans is easy (and fun) This could not be further from the truth. Creating a new educated, competent human takes ~25 years, and significant costs and resources. AGI can be just copy-pasted at essentially no cost. Even a robot that is mass-produced for tens of thousands of dollars is still much less expensive and takes much less time to make than a competent human.

But it is more than just fun , it gives purpose to our existence … pardon me but it is idiotic to look at bringing up a child so objectively.

Yes, but I think we should separate human economic value from the true purpose of our existence. If AI can replace us in economically valuable tasks, we will have no choice but to do so. The economic value part should be looked at objectively.

Re: After the AI Crash

#140

Post by LogicFailsMe »

ofjcihen wrote: post #124
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heliocentrism calling... Yeah, we reject anything new and scary. Gotta wonder what the cavepeople made of the wheel. Edit: still triggered by heliocentrism in 2026? OK then.

I mean Zeppelins were supposed to be the premier form of air travel despite the glaringly obvious issues. Invoking “heliocentrism” is the HN version of “Ive already drawn you as the virgin and me as the Chad.”

A modern equivalent of abandoning zeppelins because of the Hindenberg would be abandoning skyscrapers because of 9/11.

But it's humorous that Sergey Brin has a company dedicated to bringing back zeppelins and that's a lot more fun than Zuck's doomsday bunker or Bezos's doomsday yacht.

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