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After the AI Crash

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101–110 of 244 posts

Re: After the AI Crash

#102

Those analyses tend to not consider the government interest in having AI as a weapon: now AI labs are fully part of the military sector, making them much more supported by the system

This is a forbidden subject here. In my opinion, the foremost subject in the entire world, but for whatever reason seldom discussed and always dismissed.

All four frontier models contracted with the Pentagon. Claude already having been involved in Operation Abduct Sitting President & Use Active Denial Systems to Make People Vomit and Shit Themselves 'because'. Institutional and corporate capture . Foreign nations now having our models trained to facilitate tailored political orientation. And the fact that these systems, for all their limitations perennially bewailed, have tremendous capacity as force multipliers for all the things civil rights activists were previously terrified about apparently just before all our problems were magically solved.

Snowden docs x³

Things that once took fusion centers, thinktanks, research, etc and thousands of manual processing hours -- now real-time, instant, with real-time 'understanding'.

I think the AI crash will be primarily comprised of collectively lamenting all the obvious things we overlooked.

And with great irony, the only competitor (or savior) to total US asymmetric top-down domination is China. Or wait, I think I got that backward... https://www.wired.com/story/super-pac-backed-by-openai-and-p...

Re: After the AI Crash

#103
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't necessarily buy that API prices represent "real" prices of the models.

It's probably a safe assumption that openrouter prices for Kimi K3 are "real".

Not in the slightest as there are providers selling K3 for half of what OR has them listed for. (And maintaining profitability)

Re: After the AI Crash

#104
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an absurd position to take. Nobody benefits by having less time to adapt to changes in their employability I am not calling you out personally here, but this comment bears many hallmarks of the "accelerationist disease": thinking in abstract models rather than in concrete terms; optimising for the fangs of capital rather than human beings, imaginary infinite bets that lead participants to nonsensical conclusi…

Once AI is achieved it will not be a question of “adaptation” but “acceptance”. You are in denial. If you don’t like this the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time.

> the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time.

The Unabomber (Theodore Kaczynski) killed 3 people and injured 23 others across 16 bombings between 1978 and 1995

It's absolutely incredible to see this talked about as a "reasonable" position on AI taking jobs.

edit: updated as it is not clear if Mosura is being serious or exaggerating for rhetoric

Re: After the AI Crash

#105
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody benefits by having less time to adapt Not exactly true. If AI goes from 0 to 100 quickly (human level AGI in a few years), we will all lose our jobs together and will have to confront this fact. There is no ignoring such massive societal elephant in the room. If instead AI improves slowly, lots of people will lose their jobs, but majority will not. Those still with jobs may not be persuaded by the sizable jo…

Firstly, this generation of AI is not going to take away all jobs Secondly, we already know what happens when sectors face mass unemployment from the 1980s, when steel and coal workers were laid off en-masse: nobody came to help Accelerationists want to see their jobs go up in smoke because they think that if enough white collar workers are impoverished, everyone who was formerly poorer than them, will chip in to res…

> Firstly, AI is not going to take away all jobs

Human-level AGI is by definition able to take away all human jobs.

> Secondly, we already know what happens when sectors face mass unemployment from the 1980s, when steel and coal workers were laid off en-masse: nobody came to help

There is a massive difference between 20-30% of people in a country being unemployed (historical sector-wide collapses), and 80-100% of people in a country being unemployed (human-level AGI unemployment). The second situation is completely historically unprecedented and will *not* lead to the same results.

> In a context where the state already has less tax revenue due to mass unemployment!

If human-level AGI is an actual reality, taxation (and money itself) is no longer relevant. Only energy and resources may still matter.

Re: After the AI Crash

#106
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once AI is achieved it will not be a question of “adaptation” but “acceptance”. You are in denial. If you don’t like this the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time.

> the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time. The Unabomber (Theodore Kaczynski) killed 3 people and injured 23 others across 16 bombings between 1978 and 1995 It's absolutely incredible to see this talked about as a "reasonable" position on AI taking jobs. edit: updated as it is not clear if Mosura is being serious or exaggerating for rhetoric

I am not advocating that, since I am an accelerationist, but basic reading comprehension is obviously a problem for you both here and in your other trolling efforts. (He has since edited his comment to remove the direct claim I was personally advocating terrorism).

You cannot stop the advancement of technology towards AI without the threat of violence towards those that pursue technology. The Unabomber was at least honest about that.

> edit: updated as it is not clear if Mosura is being serious or exaggerating for rhetoric

You are the HN manifestation of that woman’s face when interviewing Sydney Sweeney.

Re: After the AI Crash

#107

> Most new technologies have been welcomed by the public with open arms. I'm not going to predict how this is going to turn out in either direction but this statement gives me pause. I don't think that's ever been true. Yes, the siren song is strong but initially most new tech is met with skepticism. Are we so quick to forget "the internet/computers are just a fad"-type thinking?

Yeah backlash against railroads was very widespread, from lots of angles (farmers, property owners, canal investors, health-conscious people, religious leaders, etc). Probably the same for cars.

Re: After the AI Crash

#108
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> absolutely no way to stop it. Unless if they take down the flat rate subs and you have to pay api prices, usage will drop a lot. Right now I freelance using gpt, if I had to pay api prices I'd probably lose 50% of the income, if not more, with the ~40% tax on top I might as well spend my time doing something else

You're unlikely to ever be priced out of tokens, at least if you'd be willing to settle for a model closer to Sonnet 4.5. That level of model certainly isn't as efficient as Fable 5, but it can crank out CRUD apps and other consulting mainstays quite well, with some supervision. To give you an example of model in this class, the DeepSeek V4 Flash preview is a 284B A13B model, with a native quantization mixing 4 bit a…

The problem is I cannot imagine ever making a single dollar with AI. I have built about 16 SaaS apps with AI, in the time it took to build by first old fashioned human-created SaaS app. The one thing the agentic coded apps have in common with my old one is that none of them have ever won a single paying customer.

Re: After the AI Crash

#109
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Douglas Hofstadter talked about these moving goalposts for AI in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach. I remember when a program that could win at chess was considered impossibly strong AI. Then, the game go. Etc. Heinlein in his book The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress imagined that people in the future would find it worthwhile, even necessary, to learn an artifical language LogLan so they could talk with computers. LogLan (Logica…

Ah, Lojban! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lojban Sadly this does not let you speak to computers, just other language nerds with a lot of time.

a friend of mine did a high school project where he and a friend learnt it well enough to have a short conversation with each other. That's the only time it has come up in life until now. I hope he sees this.

Re: After the AI Crash

#110
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> absolutely no way to stop it. Unless if they take down the flat rate subs and you have to pay api prices, usage will drop a lot. Right now I freelance using gpt, if I had to pay api prices I'd probably lose 50% of the income, if not more, with the ~40% tax on top I might as well spend my time doing something else

You're unlikely to ever be priced out of tokens, at least if you'd be willing to settle for a model closer to Sonnet 4.5. That level of model certainly isn't as efficient as Fable 5, but it can crank out CRUD apps and other consulting mainstays quite well, with some supervision. To give you an example of model in this class, the DeepSeek V4 Flash preview is a 284B A13B model, with a native quantization mixing 4 bit a…

> You can easily run it on an RTX Pro 6000

Sure, and people can just build their own dropbox for like $250 too.

How many people will bother though

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