I generally like this but I think the diseconomies of scale bit is narrow. Open models are showing us that it’s just the frontier companies in the west which are bloating and ignoring efficiency and that they’re leaving a lot of efficiency on the table.
After the AI Crash
51–60 of 244 posts
Re: After the AI Crash
#52Oh no, no one saw it coming. Oh well, anyway.
Let’s argue about SQL vs NoSQL again. I miss that.
Re: After the AI Crash
#53Wars spending will make up for the loss
Re: After the AI Crash
#54When I joined my first startup, they said if you didn't have a good plan for going public or getting acquired by series C, then the D in series D stood for death. Uber et al raised like a J round. None of the rules around markets or investments are real, it's all vibes-based, and the decision-makers love talking to their ChatGPT mistresses too much to let this all come crashing down.
Re: After the AI Crash
#55[dead]
Re: After the AI Crash
#56a contrarian take that's been eating away at my mind lately:
- if every autonomous self-driving car is going to need some sort of edge AI data center nearby (for instantaneous exceptional incident handling)
- if every household robot is going to need some sort of edge AI data center nearby (for instantaneous exceptional incident handling)
- if there are going to be millions of self-driving cars and autonomous robots joining us in the next decade
...then we will need lots more semi-conductor chips, and data centers in lots more places, in the next decade.
Re: After the AI Crash
#57Without AI there is no future US economy. You're all in.
Eh, the empire aka, protection of free trade as a service is still alive and well with no viable alternative on the horizon. Every other empire is either not free trade or - just plain mercantilism and thus will exploit way more then the quite "idealist" us- trump is just a taste of what the others in power would feel like.
I don't think the country that singlehandedly messed up the global economy by launching a pointless war on Iran - without even coordinating with its allies! - that predictably got the Strait of Hormuz closed gets to call itself protector of free trade anymore.
The US has lost its appeal as a hegemon. Constantly threatening allies with invasion isn't helping either.
Re: After the AI Crash
#58> Most new technologies have been welcomed by the public with open arms. I'm not going to predict how this is going to turn out in either direction but this statement gives me pause. I don't think that's ever been true. Yes, the siren song is strong but initially most new tech is met with skepticism. Are we so quick to forget "the internet/computers are just a fad"-type thinking?
Heliocentrism calling...
Yeah, we reject anything new and scary. Gotta wonder what the cavepeople made of the wheel.
Edit: still triggered by heliocentrism in 2026? OK then.
Re: After the AI Crash
#59AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.
There is "absolutely no way to stop" the thing that requires hundreds of billions of dollars of cash injected every year just to avoid falling over?
Re: After the AI Crash
#60AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.
However, who will pay for the very expensive training if the ROI isn't there? Absent government subsidization, then likely the frontier models will be sold off to the hyperscalers by the bankruptcy administrators to wring a few more dollars out of them as they become out of date and more and more irrelevant - assuming that inference alone is profitable at a price the market is willing to pay of course, if not then yes the lights will indeed be turned off.