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New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

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Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tuberculosis is different, in a very dark, utilitarian way. 4% of new TB cases are multi-drug resistant (19% of recurrences). Once it’s multi-drug resistant, if you’re poor then you get an incredibly depressing choice. Rich countries pay for expensive drug resistance testing. Poor countries have to answer an impossible question. You either do nothing and see if they live, or you try to guess what drugs will work and…

> TB is also shockingly infectious let's keep HN as a place where people usually do at least a cursory research before they state things with such confidence... or inject a few words of doubt to signal that you haven't done the homework. if you feel the urge to fight this: i lived with someone infected with TB. e.g. measles is shockingly infectious. TB is not.

A single, untreated person with TB will infect 1.5 to 4 people if public health interventions don’t happen. Measles sits at 12 to 18 people per infected person.

In case anyone was curious. Depending on what your priors were, 1.5 to 4 might be shocking.

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the original assertion is "punching down" on poor people. While you're correct that poverty isn't the "only reason" for high HIV transmission, poverty certainly contributes to it, via lack of access to health care and lack of access to education. How is it less "punching down" to attribute it to social behavior and culture? Isn't needle sharing associated with poverty, or would you also call that "cultu…

I was poor, grew up in social housing. I did not use drugs. "I share needles because I can't afford my own" is an INSANE take. Don't shoot drugs in the first place! Poor people are normal humans, they have willpower, agency. It is a rich people myth that poor people are cattle, devoid of any chance of doing the right thing. It is culture, behavior, social norms. Being poor does not force you to abandon the nuclear fa…

People enjoy drugs, people enjoy sex. If your solution to driving fatalities is not to drive, you have not solved anything.

Not having sex and not doing drugs isn't any sort of "right thing" other than because sex and drugs are dangerous. If sex and drugs were less dangerous (or made not dangerous at all) there would be no reason to tell people not to do them.

The wealthy use drugs and have sex all the time. They just have clean needles and nice doctors. You've completely bought into the moral explanation for poverty - which is that moral decay causes poverty, but poverty does not cause moral decay. But you think that this is a defense of the poor, rather than a defense of the exploitation and contempt for the poor by the rich.

The poor are not worse than the rich even if they do drugs, have sex, or swear on Sunday.

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#263
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the Global Burden of Disease analyses, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) had the highest age-standardized STI incidence rate of any world region — around 19,973 per 100,000 person-years, which is roughly double the global average of about 9,536 cases per 100,000. Forecasts to 2030 expect sub-Saharan Africa to continue having the highest incidence rates of both HIV and other STIs of any region. How come a specific region of…

It comes with the territory; IMO if you don't occasionally have a few comments go negative, you're probably not saying anything of value.

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Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dry sex in SSA may be one of the contributing factors, but it’s never been truly proven out as a key contributor in any study I have read; they always address it but say more needs to be done to be certain. Your comment makes it seem like a key factor when it’s not.

In the Global Burden of Disease analyses, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) had the highest age-standardized STI incidence rate of any world region — around 19,973 per 100,000 person-years, which is roughly double the global average of about 9,536 cases per 100,000. Forecasts to 2030 expect sub-Saharan Africa to continue having the highest incidence rates of both HIV and other STIs of any region. How come a specific region of…

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Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#265
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> TB is also shockingly infectious let's keep HN as a place where people usually do at least a cursory research before they state things with such confidence... or inject a few words of doubt to signal that you haven't done the homework. if you feel the urge to fight this: i lived with someone infected with TB. e.g. measles is shockingly infectious. TB is not.

A single, untreated person with TB will infect 1.5 to 4 people if public health interventions don’t happen. Measles sits at 12 to 18 people per infected person. In case anyone was curious. Depending on what your priors were, 1.5 to 4 might be shocking.

don't forget that untreated TB runs for years, sometimes for many years.

measles heals in weeks (and 99.9% non-malnutrished survives without lasting damage; see France prior to 1983).

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#266
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> TB is also shockingly infectious let's keep HN as a place where people usually do at least a cursory research before they state things with such confidence... or inject a few words of doubt to signal that you haven't done the homework. if you feel the urge to fight this: i lived with someone infected with TB. e.g. measles is shockingly infectious. TB is not.

A single, untreated person with TB will infect 1.5 to 4 people if public health interventions don’t happen. Measles sits at 12 to 18 people per infected person. In case anyone was curious. Depending on what your priors were, 1.5 to 4 might be shocking.

also note the exponential function here... and an exponent of 2 and 12 are very different animals.

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#267
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worldwide the main thing that correlates to having less kids is being more educated. High cost of living correlates with more kids, not less.

Worldwide being more educated means higher cost of living. Nowhere in the world is there a country with high cost of living and high birthrates

I suppose it depends by what you mean by “high birth rates” but Israel has a high cost of living, Tel Aviv is comparable to most American superstar cities when you account for resident’s lower incomes, but the country has a birth rate well above replacement, at roughly 3 births per woman.

Of course, Israel also has a nearly identical rate of secondary and tertiary educational attainment to other OECD countries so I’m not sure that makes the argument against education.

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, nothing is being compared. The question being posed is, if there are already tools to prevent HIV transmission (condoms, drugs, etc.) and someone doesn't use them, why would they use a vaccine?

Right; that's a better framing. 1. Some people don't use tools. (For instance, we have spellcheckers, but people don't use them or ignore them.) 2. So of what use is another tool? (Why develop a grammar checker?) See the problem? For the people who do use tools, there are useful differences among them. Some users of spell checkers will welcome the grammar checker. Some of those who would use drugs to prevent transmis…

>2. So of what use is another tool? (Why develop a grammar checker?)

This isn't quite the right analogy, because a vaccine doesn't do something different from PrEP, it just does it in a different way. At the individual level it might make a compelling case (but more of that in a bit), but for the systemic purpose of eradicating the disease, not so much; not until it's given out during childhood like other vaccines.

>But there is also this: the inconvenient drugs that block transmission are mainly used by HIV positive people and people who are exposed to them. Someone not in that situation is not going to get on a train of injections every three months. (I've never even heard of these drugs until this submission and its discussion threads.) Whereas a HIV vaccine could be something more interesting to the general population. There will likely be some people who get the vaccine who ignored the transmission-blocking drugs.

The fact of the matter is, HIV is a shitty virus, by which I mean it's an inefficacious one. It has a bad spreading mechanism and it has effects that are too severe and too obvious. The reason people ignore those drugs (besides them being expensive) is that HIV is so rare, and there are overall better methods to avoid catching it. So most people will likely never have sex with a carrier, and of those who would, most will already be using condoms. Among this latter group, I don't know that a vaccine is that compelling. HIV is not the only infection you can contract from unprotected sex. If you have a stranger in front of you with whom without a vaccine you would have used a condom, would you have unprotected sex with them after having been inoculated? While it might make sense to get the vaccine anyway as a second layer of defense, in all likelihood it won't have any effect on your personal safety.

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#269
post #3

While HIV vaccine research is an exciting field, it's worth pointing out that halting HIV transmission is, practically speaking, a solved problem with oral and injectable reverse transcriptase inhibitors. The ongoing loss of life and health due to HIV could be stopped if we cared enough to invest resources in wide-scale PrEP availability and public health education. Waiting for an HIV vaccine is the domain equivalent…

In exchange for accelerated ageing for being on lifelong HIV drugs. That side effect could be because the reverse transcriptase in humans is telomerase.

Re: New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And every time you generate an immune response you are honing your natural receptors so although they are more specific to the specific virus at hand, they lose general response, so this can backfire for example if you over-vaccinate with the wrong strain of flu and this one year the flu changes direction, mutationally. this is called “original antigenic sin” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin

Wait, so what are we supposed to do. If you over vaccinate is bad, if you under vaccinate is bad, but if you vaccinate a little bit you can end up on the wrong strain. Great! /s

actually, the 'little bit' one is probably correct, unless you are in a susceptible group like the elderly then probably vaccinate a lot

we can also get better at predicting what each year's mutations are going to be, though that takes funding

but the idea that more vaccination is always better is technically not true, especially for a virus that is extremely good at mutating/shuffling its genome like the flu does.

but the reasons given by anti-vaxxers are generally BS.

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