Pacing is a really bad idea because China will not slow it down for you.
That's the point. Do you see any concerns by these companies? They just want to slow down pace NOW because they're losing the race
> losing the race
Lol, lmao even
Pacing the frontier
21–30 of 216 posts
Re: Pacing the frontier
#22The first computers were used for war. The Harvard Mark I was used by von Neumann to calculate the physics of implosion. And then right afterwards, ENIAC was used to calculate the feasibility of the H-bomb. They called it the "Los Alamos problem." The first computer network, SAGE (or, Semi-Automatic Ground Environment) brought together RADAR data from across the US with air-traffic control data and military flight da…
A lot of atomic scientists did regret their work.
Re: Pacing the frontier
#23[deleted]
Re: Pacing the frontier
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's an application of the "Tragedy of the commons": One person stopping to push the frontier just means that this person will lose their job, the frontier will be pushed by the others. The solution is to push for a binding rule instead that will make everyone slow down in the racing towards artificial superintelligence.
And this is how we absolve people of all personal responsibility. Such companies would not pay people that well if they were so fungible. There is no such possible binding rule either, a point that is so obvious that any smart person claiming otherwise is clearly up to something.
We make binding rules all the time. We didn't fix the ozone layer by encouraging people to quit their jobs producing CFCs. We lobbied for international regulation to ban them.
Re: Pacing the frontier
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
And this is how we absolve people of all personal responsibility. Such companies would not pay people that well if they were so fungible. There is no such possible binding rule either, a point that is so obvious that any smart person claiming otherwise is clearly up to something.
We make binding rules all the time. We didn't fix the ozone layer by encouraging people to quit their jobs producing CFCs. We lobbied for international regulation to ban them.
In your example there is nothing to be gained by not complying.
Failing to comply with what is in reality arms control is a widespread occurence. It's notable the only historical way to handle this (Schelling covered it at length) is tolerance of mutual espionage on a level that would simply not be tolerable to any of the groups involved.
I should add one of Schelling's other pet subjects was "time to weapon being viable". i.e. the distinction between a nuclear power and non-nuclear power isn't quite right, as there's a huge class of countries that could become so fairly fast if they were so inclined, and that this situation is somewhat inevitable. It is this that leads to efforts to denuclearize, even on a civilian level, "problematic" countries. You want to stop frontier AI and you'll have to be rolling back a lot of existing deployed technology.
Re: Pacing the frontier
#26The HN discourse on this subject is incredibly discouraging to me. It's completely nonconstructive.
I take the pace of AI development seriously. All of my friends who work at AI Labs take it seriously. It's very easy to make lazy, shallow dismissals that leaders like Dario/Demis/Sam are acting purely out of self-interest.
If AI does pose biological risk, or could destabilize geopolitics, or even just poses economic risks, surely a joint petition like this is a good thing? We should want the AI Labs to make binding agreements to proceed safely and slower, rather than being stuck in a suboptimal game theoretical race to advance unsafely. We should be hoping that nations can make binding agreements. Our discourse here should be about the substance of what these agreements could be and the practicality of enforcement mechanisms.
Re: Pacing the frontier
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's an application of the "Tragedy of the commons": One person stopping to push the frontier just means that this person will lose their job, the frontier will be pushed by the others. The solution is to push for a binding rule instead that will make everyone slow down in the racing towards artificial superintelligence.
And this is how we absolve people of all personal responsibility. Such companies would not pay people that well if they were so fungible. There is no such possible binding rule either, a point that is so obvious that any smart person claiming otherwise is clearly up to something.
Influencing change is more complicated than that.
We live in a society that has systems of market competition between companies and economic/military competition between countries. There's not just one country working on frontier AI, and not just a few companies in each country either. The incentives of these systems ensure AI advancement will happen quickly from here on out, no matter what, absent governmental action.
An individual researcher leaving the company does nothing, other than give their seat to someone else who likely doesn't share their same concerns.
Alternatively, using the influence they do have in their position to directly try to advance AI safety research, advocate for govt action, and make public arguments attempting to persuade the public to pressure the govt to act when they otherwise wouldn't be inclined is far more likely to impact things for the better.
Re: Pacing the frontier
#28The first computers were used for war. The Harvard Mark I was used by von Neumann to calculate the physics of implosion. And then right afterwards, ENIAC was used to calculate the feasibility of the H-bomb. They called it the "Los Alamos problem." The first computer network, SAGE (or, Semi-Automatic Ground Environment) brought together RADAR data from across the US with air-traffic control data and military flight da…
We were incredibly lucky that computing and nuclear weapons led to a stable geopolitical equilibrium (mutually assured destruction). There were certainly a few scary points where we were still settling into that equilibrium during the Cold War.
I don't have a strong opinion either way, but it seems very hard to predict. Why do you think AI advancements will lead to a stable equilibrium?
Re: Pacing the frontier
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
We make binding rules all the time. We didn't fix the ozone layer by encouraging people to quit their jobs producing CFCs. We lobbied for international regulation to ban them.
In your example there is nothing to be gained by not complying. Failing to comply with what is in reality arms control is a widespread occurence. It's notable the only historical way to handle this (Schelling covered it at length) is tolerance of mutual espionage on a level that would simply not be tolerable to any of the groups involved. I should add one of Schelling's other pet subjects was "time to weapon being vi…
Great comment. I haven't read Schelling but will check that out. I think you're right that international cooperation on the topic is likely impossible at present, for the reasons you stated. I'm not sure what it would take to shift the Overton window, but it's probably not pretty.
Re: Pacing the frontier
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
And this is how we absolve people of all personal responsibility. Such companies would not pay people that well if they were so fungible. There is no such possible binding rule either, a point that is so obvious that any smart person claiming otherwise is clearly up to something.
Influencing change is more complicated than that. We live in a society that has systems of market competition between companies and economic/military competition between countries. There's not just one country working on frontier AI, and not just a few companies in each country either. The incentives of these systems ensure AI advancement will happen quickly from here on out, no matter what, absent governmental actio…
> Alternatively, using the influence they do have in their position to directly try to advance AI safety research, advocate for govt action, and make public arguments attempting to persuade the public to pressure the govt to act when they otherwise wouldn't be inclined is far more likely to impact things for the better.
No, it just comes across as "I want to get paid as if I was doing the thing I am employed to do by threatening you all about how terrible it would be if I actually did it".
They aren't even being semi imaginative and going on strike or anything.