The point that the major labs don’t seem to get is that the vast majority of use cases simply don’t need models that have 50 PhDs and can speak 12 languages. Most use cases are defined within constraints where costs matter a lot. As open weight models and cheap fine tuning services become the norm the whole economic framework of these mega models the labs are in an arms race building just completely crumbles. As does…
This is basically the entire argument by Richard Sutton happening in real time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21EYKqUsPfg Right now, we keep creating new models with larger and larger weights and throwing hardware at it. His argument is that this is a dead end and ultimately we'll eventually go back to purpose fit algorithms like we've always done in the history of AI development.
“The biggest lesson that can be read from 70 years of AI research is that general methods that leverage computation are ultimately the most effective, and by a large margin.”
His problem with LLMs are they aren’t general enough… In fact his essay the bitter lesson was what inspired the current LLM scaling.
If you watched the video, you can even see the part where he talks about how AI will fully replace humans as the next stage of life. How wholesome!