Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

Post by greesil » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

maxdo wrote: post #228

greesil wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Ed's argument is that given the infra investment the revenue won't be enough to pay back the original investors. In fact cheaper models make this worse for them. Who cares about the investors? Well it turns out the infra was financed in large part by debt that was securitized and a bunch of regarded investors that bought the debt looking for higher returns will be taking a huge haircut when the bubble pops. T…

Agents will explode the use 100x or more , so even if you push into your router mix models that dynamically do inference that is 100x 10x 5x cheaper , they are still fine. In fact spacex story tells you next : investments in infrastructure is the best investment. If OpenAI or anthropic have committed infra in the worst case scenario they can re-sell it with margin . The only way it will not payout suddenly we wake up…

Post by wpm » Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 11:56 PM UTC

InsideOutSanta wrote: post #277

throwaway63467 wrote: post #106

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Isn’t Apple potentially under a lot of pressure due to the DRAM prices as well as having to compete with AI for fab capacity? Before all the price hikes their products were already priced at the top of the market so I would assume that memory getting more expensive will impact their sales or margin quite a bit as they can’t subsidize hardware like AI companies do (they can of course eat into their own margins a bit w…

Apple already had giant margins before and could easily absorb memory price increases. The fact that they did not and instead decided to increase prices shows how confident they are that people will buy their hardware anyway.

Post by andrekandre » Tue, Jul 28, 2026, 12:35 AM UTC

Danox wrote: post #265

rdedev wrote: post #164

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If you want to dismiss him for being hyperbolic or under estimating the usefulness of AI go for it. If you are making the case that he is full of shit, please provide some actual evidence of his main thesis that AI companies are not going about this in any sustainable way

AI is going to be very useful going into the future. It’s just that it will just be incorporated into the existing programmers tool kit, and not the be all end all.

Post by insane_dreamer » Tue, Jul 28, 2026, 12:58 AM UTC

njovin wrote: post #136

altmanaltman wrote: post #113

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No Apple was not sitting there and waiting as if its some grand plan. They tried their VR device which they don't even talk about now. They were late to AI and yes if the bubble bursts they will be at a better position but it's not some grand master strategy. Even inside apple there's been a lot of talk about how badly the company handled AI. As for laughing all the way to the bank, I am sure memory manufacturers and…

A better way to frame this might be that Apple tried VR and quickly realized the market wasn't there and moved on. Compare that to Meta, who went all-in (so much so that they changed the company name) despite apparent overwhelming user apathy toward the product. The estimates I've seen say that Apple spent ~$10b on their VR program, whereas Meta is in for about $80b.

Post by philistine » Tue, Jul 28, 2026, 1:34 AM UTC

wpm wrote: post #314

InsideOutSanta wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple already had giant margins before and could easily absorb memory price increases. The fact that they did not and instead decided to increase prices shows how confident they are that people will buy their hardware anyway.

They did absorb them, this price madness began a year ago and they only increased prices last month.