if demand for "safe" tokens explodes, this is a no brainier
if open source throws a wrench into the frontier revenue growth, then its gonna be biggest bubble explosion
Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
61–70 of 83 posts
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#62At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.
Others have given practical replies, so here's a philosophical one: Sometimes it's just not practical to make much money from being right.
I want to acknowledge and empathize how much it sucks, while also putting it out there so that nobody suffers blaming themselves for something that might not be achievable.
Disclosure: I've been waiting-and-seeing too long myself, and I should probaby stop trying to time/strategize.
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure a government can bail out these irrational companies and have it not be political suicide.
Those companies are already roundly hated by the general voting public, so I agree.
The public generally doesn't like banks and investment firms either, but they had bailouts in the past.
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#64[flagged]
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
It has to get bigger. As soon as it starts shrinking, the next round of debt will no longer be able to cover the prior round of commitments. What is happening in AI is essentially a gigantic version of what is happening in consumer auto loans, they just keep refinancing for more and more money. Eventually there will be no one willing to lend them more, and then they'll go to the government to bail them out.
I'm not sure a government can bail out these irrational companies and have it not be political suicide.
There's one problem with the idea of a bailout. What comes after?
Say, for the sake of argument, that the US government bails out OpenAI. Are they now suddenly not a money-burning operation anymore that will need another bail out in a period better measured in weeks?
The thing is just very unsustainable.
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that when a vendor finances their customers, they can create the illusion of 'real' demand for their product, when most of the the end-users are only actually using something because it's cheap. When the vendor runs low on cash and starts requiring payment, the customer may not be able to afford it, taking both vendor and customer down, and leaving the end-users who have a real need, and were willing t…
that makes sense to me in a conceptual sense however inference is very profitable and plummeting in cost for a given point on the intelligence curve, and nvidia gpus can serve different models so they are protected post-buildout
> however inference is very profitable
Is there any actual evidence of that?
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
This comment struck me as odd, and I went and read some of your other comments. And then I see this comment, on a completely separate thread: > Now I have the full picture. You're right to push back, and that's on me. The load-bearing seams of language are the smoking gun I should have been aware of. Pardon my curiosity, but whats going on? Is this a bit, or a bot, or simply how you tend to write?
Hahah sorry, I just really like the joke. This is me being satirical with the claude-isms. I take it you don't use Claude Code eh?
EDIT: By joke I mean this is I guess meme culture shaping as meta references within the workforce using these tools, I find it relevant in certain context on HN as irony and a way to nudge at the topic
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#68Nvidia had a free cash flow last quarter of $48.5 billion, a 36% quarter-over-quarter increase. $750B does not seem that huge in comparison. (Yes, the gravy train could theoretically stop anytime, but that still seems like a large but localized unwind rather than a wider economic crash.)
If you were NVDA and had that much cash on hand and wanted to grow your business, where would you put it?
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#69If anything this means that the insane amounts spent on AI are just mostly virtual speculative stock deals and in reality the amount spent in AI is kinda normal.
Re: Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
First, don't park it in actual cash or you'll lose value to inflation which is currently running high. At a minimum put it in treasuries. Second, trying to time the market is almost always a suboptimal strategy. The question is when will you likely need the money? If you won't need it for 10 years or more, keep it in index funds. Otherwise, treasuries.
Personally I tend to assume anyone talking about VTI knows about the risk-free rate.
Yeah, I would also assume that anyone talking about VTI wouldn't try to time the market, but that's what he was talking about so :shrug: