41–50 of 83 posts
At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.
The market can keep going up in dollar terms while losing real value if we enter a phase of high inflation.
It's come to a point (or has it passed it) that these numbers are completely meaningless. One hundred billion here, $750B there, $1.2T over a year or so, toss in $300B for a few hyperscalers there. There's no imaginable scenario where these are actually backed up with real profit to where the investments make sense. Just passing the same hundred dollar bill among everyone and all booking it as revenue. I can't wait u…
Displacing a vast amount of labor is what makes the numbers make sense. We don't know if they'll succeed or not, but it's obviously what they're chasing. In addition to actual lost jobs, replacing a skilled white collar worker with a fungible operator of AI lowers the salary for that role significantly.
OK, dumb attempt at funny over, but certainly someone is thinking about instability costs? Even if everyone is super cool with literal Death Pits, they don't run for free. And not everyone will be cool with watching their entire family die, which will mean substantial costs in security - and money spent on security, that's just setting money on fire, that money doesn't work any more.
I know they've batted around the ideas of "compliance collars" and suchlike for the guys running the Death Pits, but I haven't seen anything that wouldn't be ultimately defeated by a typical zoo chimpanzee, let alone a psychopathic Delta Force guy with more advanced degrees than your entire family. He will not be pleased with your "compliance collar" thing.
And the brain control chips they've been trying to get working . . well, they're not ready yet. You'll just make the Delta Force guy even crazier .
It's come to a point (or has it passed it) that these numbers are completely meaningless. One hundred billion here, $750B there, $1.2T over a year or so, toss in $300B for a few hyperscalers there. There's no imaginable scenario where these are actually backed up with real profit to where the investments make sense. Just passing the same hundred dollar bill among everyone and all booking it as revenue. I can't wait u…
Displacing a vast amount of labor is what makes the numbers make sense. We don't know if they'll succeed or not, but it's obviously what they're chasing. In addition to actual lost jobs, replacing a skilled white collar worker with a fungible operator of AI lowers the salary for that role significantly.
The whole idea is impossible.
Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place. Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs. Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else. In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.
Looks like you discovered an infinite money glitch! As long as you’re selling things at a profit, all you need to do is take those profits and give them to your customers to buy more things, repeat the loop a few times and you can become a billionaire food vlogger just like Jensen
Those customers aren't buying Nvidia chips with Nvidia's money. They're using Nvidia's equity check to finance debt, and then using debt to buy the GPUs. Nvidia invests $1B in someone like CoreWeave, CoreWeave then takes that check, goes to PE a borrows $10B w/ the GPUs as collateral. Nvidia basically paid $1B to get $10B in sales, and now CoreWeave is saddled with debt based on an IOU from the AI labs.
Nvidia is insulated from the debt exposure, but the companies doing the datacenter build outs are the ones in real trouble if the house of cards comes falling down.
At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.
what's your risk tolerance?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
BRK has been roughly flat since the beginning of 2025; you might be better off in bonds or money markets (depending on your beliefs about near-term inflation).
BRK is 40% cash at the moment. I think "roughly flat" is evidence they're performing the strategy the OP wanted. BRK has stated that they'll buy back in when prices are reasonable again, so it's an automatic "sell-high buy-low" strategy.
markets...irrational... longer than you stay solvent, etc.
So if the company defaults they can take the GPUs and servers etc and sell those.
At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.
There is no way the US’s leaders let the prices of publicly traded securities go down or even stagnate relative to the US dollar. These publicly traded securities make up a significant portion of the US leaders’ and most active voters’ assets, plus almost all state and local US governments depend on the securities’ price growth to meet their deferred compensation obligations.
The alternative to risk in US securities isn’t the USD, it’s a stake in other stable countries with resources.
Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place. Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs. Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else. In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.
Right. The risk isn't accounting fraud, its the equity-to-debt loop that relies on all these companies making "enough money to pay it back someday." Nvidia invests, that equity check gets used to secure 10x it in debt with the GPUs as collateral, and then they buy the chips. Nvidia gets paid, so they don't hold the debt liability. But, if AI revenue doesn't cover those debt payments before the GPUs depreciate, the lo…
Chinese models pushes prices down and quality up, that makes GPU-based automation more affordable, while covering more and more cases to automate.
You can debate that llm producers will go bankrupt, some of them at least for sure.
How do you lose in this market if you do gpu?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
BRK is 40% cash at the moment. I think "roughly flat" is evidence they're performing the strategy the OP wanted. BRK has stated that they'll buy back in when prices are reasonable again, so it's an automatic "sell-high buy-low" strategy.
buffet may be holding his breath for some time markets...irrational... longer than you stay solvent, etc.