141–150 of 198 posts
I have nothing to say about this company's long term potential, but I'm curious to know whether this will become an enormous "tik stok" like SK Hynix became in South Korea. I've watched a short documentary about the investment mania in SK and it's really scary.
If the chinese government feels its critical to china's success then it will be backed like alibaba and wechat and others were
Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.
-HBM has a lot of room to grow(bandwidth/power/density). And an HBM memory takes 3x the amount of wafers of regular DRAM.
-HBM + better DRAM designs could increase random memory access speed by alot. I've seen research talking about 7x.
At what point it makes sense that half of consumer GPUs and most of the server GPU/CPUs start using HBM?
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Why does the US stock market keep having record years while the population doesn't seem to benefit, whereas the opposite is happening in China? Isn't that a failure of US capitalism?
It's not a failure, that's just how capitalism works.
Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.
How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.
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> To be fair, all high end chips are made in China with EU tooling. Did you mean Taiwan? Because depending on who you ask that is, or is not china. The Chinese have been cut off from EU tooling for a while now. And their attempts to build out their own lithography setups have been a failure. Their 7nm process is, by all measures, not delivering the yields that one would need to make it really successful.
No I don't mean anything related to politics of China-Taiwan. I have no interest in that.
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How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.
All the terms are squishy, but being sloppy about it, I think there's intelligence that needs to be in the model, and knowledge that could live in a database. Right now, models are memorizing a lot of stuff they don't need to. We know how to index lots of information on (comparatively slow) SSDs or across a network. See Karpathy's "Cognitive Core" idea. (I don't have a good link)
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The stock market works that way, it's true. But what about SpaceX, Blue Origin... there are also counter examples that show it is possible for investors to wait out the big profits.
Both those companies only can exist because of massive amounts of corporate welfare. What exactly are you trying to argue here? That the government should give private capital more of the people's money while the country suffers from lack of healthcare, childcare, education, and housing? What's the point of this? Honestly?
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Why does the US stock market keep having record years while the population doesn't seem to benefit, whereas the opposite is happening in China? Isn't that a failure of US capitalism?
What do you mean why? This memory stock popping on IPO has nothing to do with how well/bad capitalism provides in the USA. This is entirely about Chinese investors speculating on this company's ability to grow and undercut some Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron. Nobody knows on IPO day if a company will grow into the expectations of the investors. And China's population mostly invested in Evergrande real estate, not stocks.…
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No I don't mean anything related to politics of China-Taiwan. I have no interest in that.
Clearly you do, given you expressly maintain that China includes Taiwan (an uncommon opinion)?