71–80 of 198 posts
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Seems to be working out better than leaving it up to the market
Why does the US stock market keep having record years while the population doesn't seem to benefit, whereas the opposite is happening in China? Isn't that a failure of US capitalism?
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It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more. Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.
Don't forget that it's only an assumption that scaling more results in better models. There may be a ceiling to that. If that is hit and the best performing possible model can run in little VRAM, your argument here doesn't hold anymore. In a way it is actually the same thing that makes us accept AI as working in the first place. It only needs to be good enough for human perception. The same is probably true for compu…
Plus there is a chance the actual scaling that matters is beyond our reach. Think instead of TB models, PB or ZB models. We don't even have that kind of information. Humanity in its entire history hasn't generated 1ZB of information.
Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.
What do you base this prediction on? It seems very unlikely, unless by SOTA you mean the current SOTA.
Their posterior. Or worse, their interest in going to the moon (HODL style, not Artemis style).
EU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.
EU chip industry: best I can do is supply chips that are in 99% of industrial equipment and vehicles. Also supply the only machines in the world that enable leading edge lithography processes.
On top of this, once European giants like NXP (formerly Philips semiconductors), Infineon (formerly Siemens semiconductors), and ST are actively reducing their footprint in Europe and moving to India or SE Asia.
In short: No, EU has no future in those markets as designer or producer of chips.
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How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.
Once I start a conversation about Postgres query plans, maybe 95% of the knowledge will be almost certainly not needed, and for an inference provider there will be many more concurrent queries with reasonably large overlap. Maybe future architectures will be able to take advantage of this so not all parameters are needed in memory for almost all instances. If we are talking about all knowledge , then I agree that the…
Hopefully, future models can be trained to be even more aware of external knowledge, accessible through web search / RAG / whatever it will be then, and might not need to internalize much knowledge at all.
The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheape…
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It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more. Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.
> Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV. And yet when we hit 4k, that's were people just stopped buying higher res. 8K is still useful, but only when the screen is so large that it doesn't fit in the room :-/
EU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seems to be working out better than leaving it up to the market
Why does the US stock market keep having record years while the population doesn't seem to benefit, whereas the opposite is happening in China? Isn't that a failure of US capitalism?
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Because the capitalist west doesn't have strategic view, beside maybe on the defense sector. Everything else must produce profits next quarter not in the next 3 years.
It's this. Wall Street won't allow american companies to make long term decisions and long term planning that cost money in the short term, because they want all that money immediately now. Like, right now now. If an executive promised they could deliver big profits in 5 years by spending the next two investing their profits, Wall Street would fire them and put in someone who will happily spend all the profit (plus d…
But what about SpaceX, Blue Origin... there are also counter examples that show it is possible for investors to wait out the big profits.