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Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

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Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#41

Post by CamelCaseName »

londons_explore wrote: post #35
xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more. Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.

Your example contradicts you.

2K, 4K, and 8K+ TVs have been around forever, and although 4K has become the norm, it's widely accepted that there isn't much benefit for most people above 1080p

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#42

Post by esterna »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27
fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

Once I start a conversation about Postgres query plans, maybe 95% of the knowledge will be almost certainly not needed, and for an inference provider there will be many more concurrent queries with reasonably large overlap. Maybe future architectures will be able to take advantage of this so not all parameters are needed in memory for almost all instances.

If we are talking about all knowledge, then I agree that the compression ratio is very impressive already.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#44

Post by intrasight »

yieldcrv wrote: post #33
xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would we do that? There's no historic precedent for that. Its fundamentally an information theory thing: what's the max amount of intelligence you can get out of 1 KB/MB/GB? There has to be a limit and I'm not convinced that it's far off.

It’s not just about small models, that’s only one part of evolution Some groups are baking models into silicone, Deepmind has an example, it gets 18,000 tokens/sec on Llama 3.1, not sure about parameter size

I think this is the future - at least it will be for on-device models. Apple, for instance, will "bake silicon" once a year for their current model, and use that chip in all their devices.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#45

Post by greenavocado »

fooker wrote: post #9

Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.

NOPE. The opposite will happen. CXMT will flood the market thus making 1 TB models affordable.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#47

Post by oblio »

CamelCaseName wrote: post #41
londons_explore wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter. However much intelligence you can squeeze into 1 GB, people will always want more. Standard Def TV was plenty for 50 years. But when more was on offer, everyone went for it, and now you can't even buy a 480p TV.

Your example contradicts you. 2K, 4K, and 8K+ TVs have been around forever, and although 4K has become the norm, it's widely accepted that there isn't much benefit for most people above 1080p

Yeah, but that's based on a hard limits, the physics of the eye. The example was poorly chosen.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#48

Post by rapsey »

Schlagbohrer wrote: post #30
rokkamokka wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the effects of TSLA dropping to reasonable levels (a drop of about 90%) would look like.

Morgan Stanley said that SpaceX's space activities are only worth $8 per share...

Most people here seem to have a serious misunderstanding of what a stock price means. It reflects investor expectations. Not current revenue.

Re: Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%

#50

Post by dadoum »

jonkoops wrote: post #7

EU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.

CXMT uses old Qimonda patents (even though Qimonda's tech is now outdated), and the former CEO of Qimonda is currently building a fab for an FeRAM-based alternative to DRAM in Magdeburg. It's a gamble as FeRAM still suffers from a more limited lifetime than conventional DRAM at this moment but I think there are still somewhat interesting developments happening in Europe.
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