211–218 of 218 posts
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Why? If you can reach ASI without ASI, then why can’t multiple companies reach ASI on parallel tracks?
Because the hegemony-ensuring machine will most certainly have "prevent others from competing for hegemony" as one of the basic tenets.
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They want to achieve AGI first because, once it is achieved, no one knows what the world will look like.
I doubt this is the case. It should be common knowledge at least among the people building these things that a true AGI isn’t possible with LLMs. Unless I’ve missed some advancement?
This is funny to me, where'd you get that idea? There's no evidence for that, and models keep getting smarter. I guess you heard some 'guru' say it out loud.
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So does AGI just mean infallible?
Currently it either means “better than the median human at every task including things like counting to 1000 or folding clothes” or it means “for each task, better than the top-n human at that task”. It’s clearly not actually that “generalized” yet because it’s unable to do a number of very simple things that almost any 6-year old could do, such as count to 100 without using any tools. It’s still a very specific type…
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Wow, that is fascinating, I didn't realize China was now blocking foreign chips, lol. It's not a definitive indicator, but I feel that doesn't bode well for US dominance in this area -- when your competitor thinks they'd be helping _you_ by using your resources, that's not great.
I think the point is more than by banning the NVIDIA hardware they are forcing local development of potentially competitive hardware, basically giving Huawei a subsidy or leg-up.
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I shouldn't win too hard, because then I'll lose?
Problem of the local maxim, extreme dependency is the same as evolutionary pressure to specialize for it, eventually the process owns you.
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Agreed, that was a really fallacious point. It’s like saying buying car insurance didn’t pay off because you didn’t get in a wreck. Not that I entirely buy missiles == insurance, just that the unused == wasted framing is too simplistic.
At least with a wreck there is a real risk factor you might experience yourself. What is the risk factor for ICBM based MAD? Zero. It has never happened before, to anyone. Might as well buy an insurance for alien invasion based damages to your home.
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Many people have tried before, but the bitter lesson has come for them all.
This is not what the bitter lesson is about. It's not "don't develop better methods, just scale", it's that those methods which scale best win. LeCun's work is fundamentally about devising a method that scales better with data than LLMs. Agree with him or not about the feasibility of it, but this is fundamentally still a bitter lesson-pilled mindset.
And they have failed every single time.
The bitter lesson essay was written precisely to dismiss that approach, which used to dominate conferences and scientific publications of the era. A general learning system, given sufficient computation power, will always outperform specialized crafted systems in the long run.
Think of it like this: if a world model is a useful abstraction, the general learning system will create it by itself during its training, without us needing to implement it by hand. This is the bitter lesson. And it comes for us all.
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No, Taiwan has to import the machines, the spare parts, and even some of the raw materials from western firms. If China invaded Taiwan, they might get some engineers, and maybe some designs they had no hope of implementing anytime soon. The fans, if they survived, wouldn’t be very useful. There is a reason the west doesn’t tell China adjacent countries that they can’t fab due to risk of invasion.
And, “TSMC and ASML, currently, the only supplier of tools that could make cutting-edge 2nm chips, have added a ‘kill switch’ that will disable TSMC’s EUV machines remotely. According to Bloomberg.” https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machine...