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The Strongest El Niño Ever

theclimatebrink.com

231–240 of 370 posts

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we've been stupid "solar oven" buildings for 50 years while climate scientists were warning against extreme weather events and, now that said extreme event arrives, the best we find is to rush to aircon. Seems pretty short-sighted to me.

I live in SoCal and am continually shaking my head at the architecture. So my floor-to-ceiling glass buildings in a climate known for sunny weather. So much extra air-conditioning will be spent to cool those buildings compared to if they had been built more reflective.

Also windows that go down to the floor has been considered bad architecture for decades.

Wall-to-wall windows are great.

Floor-to-ceiling windows are stunning when you walk into an empty place that you're thinking about buying or renting, but when you're actually living there, windows that go down to the floor create a few feet of dead space. You can't really put any furniture there without feeling guilty about blocking the view you're paying for, and it's uncomfortable to walk up to the edge and look down - it makes you feel uneasy like you're standing on a cliff with your toes at the edge. It's much better for the window to end around waist high.

They're psychologically fine if both the floor and the ceiling extend beyond the window (e.g. it's on the ground floor, and the roof overhangs), but when they're used on every floor in a high rise apartment building, killing limited square footage and driving up energy bills, it's absolute madness.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#232
I could not be more excited about the upcoming warm, dry summer here in NZ's North Island. The media keeps trying to scare us but I'm pumped. I can't do anything about the future of planet Earth and I'm not going to ring my hands and lose sleep over it, but if atmospheric changes are going to result in some great seasons I'm here for it.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#233

If things get really unsustainable, I'm talking about a sizeable percentage of the world's population dying because of heatwaves, shall we see desperate measure being taken? For example some scientists suggested installing sunshades but... Literally a sunshade: deploying an umbrella of sort, in space, so that less heat reaches the heart. Now of course as we've been ruled by luminaries since decades, bringing us to th…

Funding was proposed by Congress during the Biden administration but didn't get a lot of press at the time

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/01/white-house-cautiou...

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#234
post #10

I for one am impressed we get couple months of warning before it happens

It's a massive oscillating system (millions of square miles), so we have plenty of lead time. It's easy to measure and watch evolve.

Its a bit more complicated than that, you have a period during the spring called the spring persistence barrier that makes skillful prediction of a developing el nino difficult. What is impressive is that multi month model predictions before this spring barrier had a historic el nino developing which turned out to be correct (an out of sample prediction).

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an incorrect way to frame the impacts of temperature increases. 1.5, 2, 3C makes extreme events like the one you stated significantly more likely in a probabilistic sense. The ability of adapt is in part driven by frequency of extreme events as much as it is adaptability to specific thresholds. We are already experiencing deadly heat bulb events at current warming levels, the impacted areas and frequency of t…

I agree, but what we aren't currently really seeing (at least I've not seen it) is a heat dome killing off a herd of cattle or a crop. That's the sort of event that becomes much more likely if not inevitable as the temperatures increase.

Heat domes are already killing off cattle and reducing crop yields, even in western countries? There was significant cattle die off in the US during 2022/2023. Europe just experienced 10,000 excess deaths due to heat impacts and a reduced grain yield by almost 8-10%. There have not been correlated heat dome events over multiple regional bread baskets (yet) but those are going to get increasingly more probable. We have a lot of adaptability on the food side though as reducing meat consumption is an easy behavioral change. Climate change impacts is one reason why beef is currently so expensive in the US.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#236

If things get really unsustainable, I'm talking about a sizeable percentage of the world's population dying because of heatwaves, shall we see desperate measure being taken? For example some scientists suggested installing sunshades but... Literally a sunshade: deploying an umbrella of sort, in space, so that less heat reaches the heart. Now of course as we've been ruled by luminaries since decades, bringing us to th…

Cloud cover to raise the Earth's albedo can be done by a smaller independent team, vs needing the whole world to agree to stop polluting.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. Add to the list: consuming huge amounts of meat while depriving themselves of AC "for the planet".

In terms of greenhouse it also depends on type of meat. Very acidental but europeans eat much less beef and eat pork/chicken instead. Chicken protein for example is in many cases better than cheese emission wise. Also i don't think europeans don't use AC to save the planet. It's just expensive and it didn't use to be a problem.

Paris didn’t have air-conditioning because they sit at a latitude of 49 where in the past you might have a week maybe two of sustained high temperatures above 90°, since Paris sits at a latitude of 49 which is north of the United States-Canadian border all the way from Vancouver to the lake of the woods Minnesota.

Which is hardly air-conditioning country above latitude 49 although obviously climate change may change that, but there was no point having air-conditioning that far north in the past for two weeks of possible hot weather, a resident living in the American southwest who will never have a white Christmas ever and air conditioning was always a must.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it’s always varied in intensity, why are the ten hottest years on record all after 2015? Surely we’d see random hot years all over the map.

This thread and the article are discussing about El Nino, not global average temperatures.

You said:

>If you give any regularly-occurring event that varies in intensity enough time, it is guaranteed to break the records of its previous intensities.

I don't even have to add emphasis myself, you already did.

Someone then named a regularly-occurring event of varying intensity (summer is hot), and pointed out that the data shows the opposite of your explanation (i.e. this isn't random variance causing random spikes; this is a continuous increasing trend).

You then said, effectively, "not that regularly-occurring event of varying intensity!"

Kinda seems like you're moving the goalposts a bit.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we've been stupid "solar oven" buildings for 50 years while climate scientists were warning against extreme weather events and, now that said extreme event arrives, the best we find is to rush to aircon. Seems pretty short-sighted to me.

I live in SoCal and am continually shaking my head at the architecture. So my floor-to-ceiling glass buildings in a climate known for sunny weather. So much extra air-conditioning will be spent to cool those buildings compared to if they had been built more reflective.

Obviously, Mediterranean, Spanish or Adobe type buildings would have been better, and not the northern European style of architecture.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#240
post #155
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was fairly impossible to find a restaurant in Paris that had an AC not so long time ago. It’s totally not an issue in states.

That's because Europeans are more of nonconformists and could deal with some 7 to 10 super hot days in a year. It's now weeks in a row.

Europeans are more accepting of being sweaty during the day.
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