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DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

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Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#171

Post by Levitz »

killingtime74 wrote: post #73
testaburger wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there's a lot of propganda from these state backed enterprises. I think the fraction of the cost label is debatable given the evidence of mass gpu smuggling through third parties like Singapore which China can't exactly openly admit to. Unless of course we're talking about distilling, which is probably a lot cheaper than training a model from scratch (there's also the fact that labour is still relatively cheap in Chi…

All that and so what? Fact is the Chinese have several near peer models, they've released the weights and they are widely available. You want to sue them or something?

Suing is absurd as it would get nowhere, since this is China we are talking about.

Now, preventing making business in the US based on those products? At this point it's hard to argue against.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#172

Post by Levitz »

rayiner wrote: post #67
motoboi wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an immense pot of gold at the end of this rainbow and if the theories about ASI are in the general correct direction, only one winner will get it. It makes no difference if the pot do actually exist, because the prospect of it being real make not getting it the end of your company.

Why? If you can reach ASI without ASI, then why can’t multiple companies reach ASI on parallel tracks?

Because the hegemony-ensuring machine will most certainly have "prevent others from competing for hegemony" as one of the basic tenets.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#173

Post by [deleted] »

oliculipolicula wrote: post #133
antiford2049 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is this similar to Meta starting to rent out own compute as they cant seem to do much with it and monetising it is much better ROI?...

Sorry to barge in here. I couldn't find a good place to place https://github.com/demo-zexuan/liang-wenfeng-investor-meetin... The current link is 404, can mods update to above, detach, make sticky? (No response from mods, understandable)

[deleted]

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#174

Post by alephnerd »

homarp wrote: post #121
alephnerd wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> U.S. policymakers believe that even if the gap is small—like six months to a year—whoever reaches AGI first... From past experience, AGI was never seriously discussed in these kinds of conversations beyond thought experiments, and was basically humoring SBF, Daniela Amodei, and the other EA types (some deep believers, but some who I felt were cynically using it as a way to preempt competition back when OpenAI and G…

>notice the recent shift towards identification on social media i think this is more about control. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49036433 (The Home Ministry’s cybercrime arm, the Indian Cybercrime Coordination Centre, has ordered Microsoft subsidiary GitHub to remove Bluetooth-based messaging application Bitchat) "The notice comes after several users participating in the Jantar Mantar protest were observe…

The CJP Bitchat takedown notice is standard practice in India - what I meant is ID linking with social media such as ChatControl 2.0, the UK ChatControl proposals, and similar proposals making the rounds in Australia, Canada, and others.

By ID gating it helps reduce social media inflammation such as the Belfast race riots by making it easier to prosecute individuals and locking down access to only humans.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#175

Post by lelanthran »

andai wrote: post #125
choonway wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep. the word they use is probably 克制 or self-restraint. no need to raise so much cash if you can't use it. in his article he talks about the negative aspects of getting everything you want. (all the money, brightest minds, biggest share in AI) etc. he says that these are the things that will cause a company to fail.

I shouldn't win too hard, because then I'll lose?

> I shouldn't win too hard, because then I'll lose?

Yes. It's a known thing.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#176

Post by carterschonwald »

torginus wrote: post #119
carterschonwald wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

amusingly ive been working on ultra sparse llm inference/ training/ model design because nature loaths a dense graph/matrix and cause i think it shoukd be possible. i actually stood up a 20-25 percent faster than sota causal fast attention kernel yesterday, will be standing up cuda/metal/armv8 kernels too and thats gonna be fun. i genuinely think these models should be like 0.1 percent sparse for same capabilities we…

I am not much of a math person, but if we look at the how the brain is wired, we see that the dendrites (the inputs) of a neuron are hundreds of micrometers in length, and the axons (the outputs) are millimeters, and very rarely can stretch to tens of centimeters. So they can sample only a tiny amount of internal state, and affect a much larger, but usually still small output. In math terms, this means a layer of a n…

exactly. you certainly know more about the brain than i :)

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#177

Post by aliasxneo »

franktankbank wrote: post #148
asdff wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'd have to use the gap though to actually kneecap them in that time, or else it is just shoveling money into the fire. The missile gap for example after all was settled and done, didn't matter at all because not a single missile was ever fired off. All that money, resources, talent, secrecy, lives lost maintaining that secrecy, lives dedicated to furthering that technology and secrecy, it just has not paid off at…

Also why do we want to kneecap?

At the bottom most level, self-preservation.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#178

Post by tancop »

culi wrote: post #16
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, that is fascinating, I didn't realize China was now blocking foreign chips, lol. It's not a definitive indicator, but I feel that doesn't bode well for US dominance in this area -- when your competitor thinks they'd be helping _you_ by using your resources, that's not great.

They've achieved self-sufficiency in >14nm chips in remarkable timing. Unfortunately for DeepSeek, it's the And even if Huawei's Ascend 910C can compete with NVIDIA's H200, CUDA is still a large moat

there are already two independent drop in cuda emulators. zluda is open source with extra features like game physics, scale is production ready and focused on inference workloads. both of them can run pytorch.

and for a company full of brilliant engineers with zero respect for american law its not that hard to make one more by themselves.

Re: DeepSeek pause fundraise after comments on compute gap to US leaked (transcript) [pdf]

#179

Post by yogthos »

torginus wrote: post #130
PeterHolzwarth wrote: post #2

Article grabbed at random that provides some more context (tho could use more): https://www.cyberkendra.com/2026/07/deepseek-pauses-fundrais... "The Hangzhou AI lab has told prospective investors in its second fundraising round that it is suspending the deal, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Saturday, days after remarks attributed to founder Liang Wenfeng about US-China AI competition circulated wide…

I wonder if it would be viable for the Chinese to pursue a huge buildout of less sophisticated logic fabs. My experience with GPGPU is that it seems to intensely skew towards memory bandwidth, and has a much lower compute intensity than graphics (by which I mean rasterization and shaders). This seems to be holding true for AI as well. I'm sure if you have an excess of compute and a dearth of bandwidth, you can trade…

The real question is whether it's easier to improve the software side instead. There are likely a lot more optimizations possible in terms of model architecture, and if there is a compute bottleneck, then it's going to put a lot of pressure on Chinese labs to address the problem using more efficient designs.
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