Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually, that's the service provided by GS, etc. They have those buyers on the other side of their Rolodex.
What is GS?
Goldman Sachs
Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
91–100 of 344 posts
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#92I am short both Google and SpaceX RN; SpaceX's IPO smells foul. Google is an AI-bubble short; Anthropic and OpenAI haven't IPOed yet.
Google makes money hand over fist and they don’t have enough things to spend it on. AI is a natural fit for them to burn all their profits into. Gemini’s integration is, I think, absolutely awesome - it’s completely changing the way I interact with the concept of googling and finding answers, and is free of sign ups or purposeful interactions with the likes of ChatGPT or Claude where you know you’re AI-ing. So your short could work, but it’s not going to work for google’s involvement in an AI-bubble, it’s predicated on the entire market tanking, which should have been occurring for the past two years already if fundamentals and capex translating into profit were what the market cared about. But it seems like the market isn’t caring right now so you could be holding that short for quite a while before it turns into a major return.
SpaceX I actually bought at the IPO price because I think the company will be around in 30 years time, so as fraudulent and mispriced as it is, having a small holding over that kind of horizon I believe will be profitable. And I want to be that kind of old-timer who can chuckle at buying it at the IPO and holding through the crash and still holding when they are on Mars and beyond and SPCX is worth multiples of what it is today.
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
Excluding all the capex from AI this last quarter has been one of their best.
> Excluding But you don´t get to to that. Would be like "Excluding my business costs, my company profits are the same as my revenue".
The return on capital is also phenomenal. To be a bear, you have to assume that will crater.
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#94Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google is not a good short. They are actually one of the companies that will likely come out on top when the AI-bubble has popped. Anthropic and OpenAI though will likely be dead, killed by cheap open weight LLMs and local LLMs.
Most sane comment. Even in the last Elon Musk interview by The Economist, he admited that it's likely China will win at the end. The gap is so close now. Opinions matter not, the Chinese will have their own GPUs, RAM and everything they need. Giants like google and spacex are the few that can handle it because their business is not only about shipping the best models.
It isn't currently —for google— only about shipping the best models, but in the future however...
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
Remember this was also when SpaceX was actually about space, instead of mostly AI and Twitter. Long-term shareholders that were sold on the space, have to be thinking about how to get out once their lockups expire.
SpaceX is WAY more about space than Twitter. Twitter by itself is lucky to be worth $15B anymore. The space portion of SpaceX is easily worth 10x that. xAI is theoretically the hype machine that makes up the remainder of the value.
Where did you get $15 billion from?
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Investors are buying into the fallacy that musk can continue to work as a hype man, rather than some visionary or innovator. They like that he can make stock numbers go up, seemingly against all odds and reason. Whether this trend continues or not indefinitely will largely determine if incestors start looking for the door.
Love the typo. I think Musk's luck is running out, he's been too political this past year and he seems to also have run out of geek "street cred". Remember youtubers visiting (whatever the Tesla trade show was called) were more perplexed than impressed with what has been shown. Similar sentiment seen across trade shows (like CES) where everything was AI and no one seemed to ask themselves "why are we putting AI in th…
It’s so weird to see people actively try to criticize arguably the most successful person in the history of Earth.
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#98This investment has never been secret. Google (now under parent company Alphabet) invested roughly $900 million as the majority of a ~$1 billion funding round alongside Fidelity Investments. This gave Google an initial equity stake of about 7–7.5% in SpaceX at a valuation of roughly $10–12 billion.
In fact it was often mentioned as a recommended way to try to invest in SpaceX via proxy, before IPO. I don't think that advice had much merit, but it was there nevertheless.
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
With the serious lapses in governance being made by founders with these special shares, such as Musk and Zuckerberg, I wonder if the shares without these special rights will be substantially discounted. What rights do these other shareholders retain that would keep them valuable? Rights to compensation in the case of bankruptcy?
Generally the 10x shares aren't traded so it's impossible to see if they trade at a premium. One exception is GOOG / GOOGL which both trade actively, and there's not much difference in price. The mechanism for a price divergence could be accumulation of the 10x shares to seize control, but even if you could buy the entire float, it wouldn't be enough to take control, so that mechanism never happens.
There are three classes of Google stock.
By voting rights, they have 10x (founder stock), 1x (trading as GOOGL), and 0x (trading as GOOG). The class with 10x voting rights does not trade publicly. The class with 1x voting rights does not have enough voting power to control the direction of the company so there is no real difference in perceived value between GOOG and GOOGL.
Employee stock awards are IIRC all in restricted shares of GOOG (0x voting rights) so they don't dilute the power of the founders.
Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
Excluding all the capex from AI this last quarter has been one of their best.
> Excluding But you don´t get to to that. Would be like "Excluding my business costs, my company profits are the same as my revenue".
I think the point is more: as soon as they stop with the AI silliness they'll return to being a quite strong business.