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Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

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Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#81

Post by the__alchemist »

DanHulton wrote: post #78
the__alchemist wrote: post #24

I am short both Google and SpaceX RN; SpaceX's IPO smells foul. Google is an AI-bubble short; Anthropic and OpenAI haven't IPOed yet.

That’s brave, and I don’t mean that shittily, but more cautiously. Like, I’m thinking of the Simpsons shirt-tugging meme when I read this. I’ve always been hesitant to short stocks because of the old adage “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” and the market has a REAL vested interest in seeing these companies not explode. Good luck on this one, genuinely, because you may need it. (That sa…

Sage advice!. In shorts like these, there's no outcome that "wins big" unfortunately, unless you do it with large amounts of money. (Unlike a long position on an individual stock that 10xs, or options which are much riskier). But... it will ideally make the landing softer after the Fall.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#82

Post by adabyron »

matwood wrote: post #47
conartist6 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now Microsoft, them I'd short. In a way I have by starting my own company to undermine their various competitive advantages comprehensively

The number of companies that default to using Teams shows why MSFT isn't going anywhere.

I will be very concerned for MSFT if small companies start outperforming larger companies. That's when Microsoft's advantage disappears. If AI truly encourages smaller, flatter organizations. IMO large enterprise adoption is their moat.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#83

Post by kingleopold »

ajross wrote: post #20
throwaw12 wrote: post #14

100x return, I would sell immediately after this kind of gain, maybe that's why I am not a Google

This is a micro/macro mistake. You obviously can't dump a 6% stake at strike price on Robinhood. "The Market", at this scale, means "You find the buyer(s) yourself and work up the deal with a hundred lawyers and PR staff and hope the contract negotiation stays secret".

tell me how you dont know anything about dark markets and dark pools. I loveeeee how you average people dont know how they operate at top

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#84

Post by panarky »

georgeburdell wrote: post #67
dgellow wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just that, but private investors were sold shares that all had the same voting rights. Since just before the IPO SpaceX now has dual class shares, Elon and a few insiders have class-B shares with 10x the voting power, while everybody else (including private investors) have class-A shares with 1x the voting power

With the serious lapses in governance being made by founders with these special shares, such as Musk and Zuckerberg, I wonder if the shares without these special rights will be substantially discounted. What rights do these other shareholders retain that would keep them valuable? Rights to compensation in the case of bankruptcy?

Generally the 10x shares aren't traded so it's impossible to see if they trade at a premium.

One exception is GOOG / GOOGL which both trade actively, and there's not much difference in price.

The mechanism for a price divergence could be accumulation of the 10x shares to seize control, but even if you could buy the entire float, it wouldn't be enough to take control, so that mechanism never happens.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#85

Post by imagent »

TheAtomic wrote: post #40
ajross wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a micro/macro mistake. You obviously can't dump a 6% stake at strike price on Robinhood. "The Market", at this scale, means "You find the buyer(s) yourself and work up the deal with a hundred lawyers and PR staff and hope the contract negotiation stays secret".

Actually, that's the service provided by GS, etc. They have those buyers on the other side of their Rolodex.

What is GS?

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#86

Post by mhitza »

SecretDreams wrote: post #63
miohtama wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX, like Tesla, has always been about Elon Musk. Investors are buying Musk, like they were buying Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway. Long-term shareholders are not buying space; they are buying Musk. This has been clear to everyone since the beginning; it has been well communicated (look at SpaceX governance rules in Texas), and there is nothing mystical about it. It's very likely Musk will roll everything u…

Investors are buying into the fallacy that musk can continue to work as a hype man, rather than some visionary or innovator. They like that he can make stock numbers go up, seemingly against all odds and reason. Whether this trend continues or not indefinitely will largely determine if incestors start looking for the door.

Love the typo.

I think Musk's luck is running out, he's been too political this past year and he seems to also have run out of geek "street cred". Remember youtubers visiting (whatever the Tesla trade show was called) were more perplexed than impressed with what has been shown. Similar sentiment seen across trade shows (like CES) where everything was AI and no one seemed to ask themselves "why are we putting AI in this?". The answer, of course, for startups and stock listed companies, to make themselves more valuable on paper.

Investors would probably be aware of that if they run any kind of sentiment analysis on online social media content. And at the same time there's some pull-out from tech stock. So maybe some are starting to realise that things are too shaky for their risk profile?

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#87

Post by cowboy_henk »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #77
matwood wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember this was also when SpaceX was actually about space, instead of mostly AI and Twitter. Long-term shareholders that were sold on the space, have to be thinking about how to get out once their lockups expire.

SpaceX is WAY more about space than Twitter. Twitter by itself is lucky to be worth $15B anymore. The space portion of SpaceX is easily worth 10x that. xAI is theoretically the hype machine that makes up the remainder of the value.

Twitter is the “hype machine”. It’s basically the advertising arm disguised as a social media company.

At SpaceX’s valuation, even a 1-2% increase in share price due to some astroturfing on the platform they themselves own basically pays back the cost of acquiring twitter.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#88

Post by wongarsu »

SecretDreams wrote: post #63
miohtama wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX, like Tesla, has always been about Elon Musk. Investors are buying Musk, like they were buying Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway. Long-term shareholders are not buying space; they are buying Musk. This has been clear to everyone since the beginning; it has been well communicated (look at SpaceX governance rules in Texas), and there is nothing mystical about it. It's very likely Musk will roll everything u…

Investors are buying into the fallacy that musk can continue to work as a hype man, rather than some visionary or innovator. They like that he can make stock numbers go up, seemingly against all odds and reason. Whether this trend continues or not indefinitely will largely determine if incestors start looking for the door.

Unlike Tesla, SpaceX is still a visionary and innovative company. Their current cash problems are precisely because they are so heavily invested in so many innovations that have yet to pan out

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#89

Post by smnscu »

imagent wrote: post #85
TheAtomic wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, that's the service provided by GS, etc. They have those buyers on the other side of their Rolodex.

What is GS?

Presumably Goldman Sachs (or any investment bank worth its salt)

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#90

Post by chii »

georgeburdell wrote: post #67
dgellow wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just that, but private investors were sold shares that all had the same voting rights. Since just before the IPO SpaceX now has dual class shares, Elon and a few insiders have class-B shares with 10x the voting power, while everybody else (including private investors) have class-A shares with 1x the voting power

With the serious lapses in governance being made by founders with these special shares, such as Musk and Zuckerberg, I wonder if the shares without these special rights will be substantially discounted. What rights do these other shareholders retain that would keep them valuable? Rights to compensation in the case of bankruptcy?

> I wonder if the shares without these special rights will be substantially discounted

it should be, but the market might be a bit irrational.

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