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Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

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Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#61

Post by lotsofpulp »

embedding-shape wrote: post #17
throwaw12 wrote: post #14

100x return, I would sell immediately after this kind of gain, maybe that's why I am not a Google

Feeling sated and not constant greed is no way to build billionaires, nope.

Your comment is difficult to parse. Is Alphabet greedy for spending $900M on SpaceX equity many years ago before the business was built and there was a risk it would not be built?

Or is Alphabet greedy for holding onto the equity instead of selling it for cash? Or is throwaw12 greedy for wanting to sell something after a 100x return?

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#62

Post by pier25 »

matwood wrote: post #45
the__alchemist wrote: post #24

I am short both Google and SpaceX RN; SpaceX's IPO smells foul. Google is an AI-bubble short; Anthropic and OpenAI haven't IPOed yet.

Not sure why you'd short Google. Their business was doing great pre-AI, and will likely do great regardless of what happens to AI. The rumors of their demise when AI hit the scene were clearly greatly exaggerated.

Excluding all the capex from AI this last quarter has been one of their best.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#63

Post by SecretDreams »

miohtama wrote: post #56
matwood wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember this was also when SpaceX was actually about space, instead of mostly AI and Twitter. Long-term shareholders that were sold on the space, have to be thinking about how to get out once their lockups expire.

SpaceX, like Tesla, has always been about Elon Musk. Investors are buying Musk, like they were buying Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway. Long-term shareholders are not buying space; they are buying Musk. This has been clear to everyone since the beginning; it has been well communicated (look at SpaceX governance rules in Texas), and there is nothing mystical about it. It's very likely Musk will roll everything u…

Investors are buying into the fallacy that musk can continue to work as a hype man, rather than some visionary or innovator. They like that he can make stock numbers go up, seemingly against all odds and reason.

Whether this trend continues or not indefinitely will largely determine if incestors start looking for the door.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#64

Post by legulere »

conartist6 wrote: post #33
throwaw12 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

from your list, I think only Google has moat and something I would short least. Google has hardware, software ecosystem, mobile ecosystem, controls browser, has access to 2B+ users, has talent to come up with ideas - perfect spot for AI

Now Microsoft, them I'd short. In a way I have by starting my own company to undermine their various competitive advantages comprehensively

Microsoft is in the same situation as IBM decades ago. „ nobody ever got fired for buying IBM“ used to be a common saying. If at all you’ll see a slow decline.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#65

Post by dgellow »

matwood wrote: post #49
miohtama wrote: post #41

This investment has never been secret. Google (now under parent company Alphabet) invested roughly $900 million as the majority of a ~$1 billion funding round alongside Fidelity Investments. This gave Google an initial equity stake of about 7–7.5% in SpaceX at a valuation of roughly $10–12 billion.

Remember this was also when SpaceX was actually about space, instead of mostly AI and Twitter. Long-term shareholders that were sold on the space, have to be thinking about how to get out once their lockups expire.

Not just that, but private investors were sold shares that all had the same voting rights. Since just before the IPO SpaceX now has dual class shares, Elon and a few insiders have class-B shares with 10x the voting power, while everybody else (including private investors) have class-A shares with 1x the voting power

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#66

Post by miohtama »

SecretDreams wrote: post #63
miohtama wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX, like Tesla, has always been about Elon Musk. Investors are buying Musk, like they were buying Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway. Long-term shareholders are not buying space; they are buying Musk. This has been clear to everyone since the beginning; it has been well communicated (look at SpaceX governance rules in Texas), and there is nothing mystical about it. It's very likely Musk will roll everything u…

Investors are buying into the fallacy that musk can continue to work as a hype man, rather than some visionary or innovator. They like that he can make stock numbers go up, seemingly against all odds and reason. Whether this trend continues or not indefinitely will largely determine if incestors start looking for the door.

It's a valid point. But the markets are a harsh mistress. If you don't like fallacies, you don't buy. And if you think the number is not going to go up, you can always short the stock.

In defence of Mr Musk, despite his character flaws, Tesla is the only Western electric car company in the top 20, and this includes Korea and Japan. Also, SpaceX is ~90% of the world's commercial rocket launch capacity.

But this does not mean SpaceX would be correctly priced at the moment. It may be expensive, but SpaceX is going to have many years to come to reap the benefits of their hard work building the business.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#67

Post by georgeburdell »

dgellow wrote: post #65
matwood wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember this was also when SpaceX was actually about space, instead of mostly AI and Twitter. Long-term shareholders that were sold on the space, have to be thinking about how to get out once their lockups expire.

Not just that, but private investors were sold shares that all had the same voting rights. Since just before the IPO SpaceX now has dual class shares, Elon and a few insiders have class-B shares with 10x the voting power, while everybody else (including private investors) have class-A shares with 1x the voting power

With the serious lapses in governance being made by founders with these special shares, such as Musk and Zuckerberg, I wonder if the shares without these special rights will be substantially discounted. What rights do these other shareholders retain that would keep them valuable? Rights to compensation in the case of bankruptcy?

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#68

Post by maipen »

deadbabe wrote: post #44
the__alchemist wrote: post #24

I am short both Google and SpaceX RN; SpaceX's IPO smells foul. Google is an AI-bubble short; Anthropic and OpenAI haven't IPOed yet.

Google is not a good short. They are actually one of the companies that will likely come out on top when the AI-bubble has popped. Anthropic and OpenAI though will likely be dead, killed by cheap open weight LLMs and local LLMs.

Most sane comment.

Even in the last Elon Musk interview by The Economist, he admited that it's likely China will win at the end.

The gap is so close now. Opinions matter not, the Chinese will have their own GPUs, RAM and everything they need.

Giants like google and spacex are the few that can handle it because their business is not only about shipping the best models.

Re: Google Discloses $94.1B in SpaceX Stock, Marking 6% Stake

#70

Post by api »

maipen wrote: post #68
deadbabe wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is not a good short. They are actually one of the companies that will likely come out on top when the AI-bubble has popped. Anthropic and OpenAI though will likely be dead, killed by cheap open weight LLMs and local LLMs.

Most sane comment. Even in the last Elon Musk interview by The Economist, he admited that it's likely China will win at the end. The gap is so close now. Opinions matter not, the Chinese will have their own GPUs, RAM and everything they need. Giants like google and spacex are the few that can handle it because their business is not only about shipping the best models.

I expect China to eventually develop or sidestep EUV lithography. When that happens it’s over.

It will also crash the price of chips globally. These high prices are kind of artificially buoyed by the fact that China can’t obtain ASML machines. This keeps China’s vast proven ability to scale manufacturing off the playing field.

This is so clearly the Chinese century. Doesn’t mean the US, EU, etc become backwaters. England was a huge influence on the 20th century. It does mean that China will drive tech and the global economy forward.

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