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Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

tobi.knaup.me

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Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#211

Post by bigyabai »

drnick1 wrote: post #146

> American labs need to release frontier-grade open-weight models under licenses that startups can actually build on. To be fair, OpenAI has released a couple of (then very good) OSS models. I run the 20B version at home and it is excellent for reviewing text and common tasks like drafting bash scripts. There is a larger 120B that you can't realistically run on consumer hardware at reasonable tok/s too. I wish OpenAI…

The OSS models are good, but weren't very competitive at release with alternatives like Qwen3 Coder A3B. If you were a startup, why would you build on OpenAI's first (and last, for quite some time) model versus Qwen3, which was updated with multiple open-weight point releases?

The article certainly has a point, the current release cadence is untenable for startups that want frontier-grade models from American labs. Unless America wants to cede that market entirely, OpenAI et. al. need to kick it into gear, fast.

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#212

Post by xdennis »

theshrike79 wrote: post #152
rullopat wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to ask what happened in Tienanmen square

Would ”who won the 2020 election” be a similar canary for American models?

How is that in any way equivalent? The American government/legislature doesn't force you to adopt any particular view of the 2020 election. You can say Biden won or you can say it was defrauded by dead people and Trump actually won.

You're allowed to say either one and you can train an LLM to say either one.

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#213

Post by m11a »

andriy_koval wrote: post #204
xprnio wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On something that is inherently non-deterministic? Something which is also to a great extent distilled from other frontier models, meaning it has the possibility to generate similar outputs to those meaning that just pattern detection might also not be as effective? Easier to ban everything that’s open, than try to figure out which one of them is Chinese

Now imagine prosecutor found expert, who said there is benchmark which while performing 100k test questions found it is the same model with 98% probability, and then you need under oath testify where did you get this model.

Step 1: Chinese company publishes open weights on HF

Step 2: European company distills or just adjusts the model slightly, and publishes its model on HF

Step 3: American company uses model from step 2. Has to testify under oath where they got it from. "We got it from these French guys"

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#214

Post by layer8 »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #202
ozgung wrote: post #126

Everyone is talking about banning Chinese models but nobody talks how it is feasible to ban them. I think it’s impossible simply because technically there is no such thing as a “Chinese model”. There is no way to tell apart an “American” model from a “Chinese” one by looking at their weights. Weights are just numbers and you can’t assign country of origin to numbers. One can find very easy workarounds to any naive at…

> So, any solution to this “problem” must include ALL open-weight models. What about the EU? Would they follow Uncle Sam's order to ban all open-weight models? Lately the EU hasn't been that cozy with american companies: there are EU companies and institutions moving to EU clouds, the EU just fine Google a cool billion, several are switching away from Windows to Linux, etc. Or is it just the US that'd ban open-weight…

It’s certainly only the US, because the alternative would effectively mean binding yourself to US providers, which isn’t attractive for anyone outside the US, in the present world-political climate.

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#215

Post by johndough »

drnick1 wrote: post #146

> American labs need to release frontier-grade open-weight models under licenses that startups can actually build on. To be fair, OpenAI has released a couple of (then very good) OSS models. I run the 20B version at home and it is excellent for reviewing text and common tasks like drafting bash scripts. There is a larger 120B that you can't realistically run on consumer hardware at reasonable tok/s too. I wish OpenAI…

> There is a larger 120B that you can't realistically run on consumer hardware at reasonable tok/s too.

gpt-oss-120b runs at 30+ tps on Strix Halo and +75 tps on a MacBook Pro M5 Max 128GB.

> I wish OpenAI updated these models more frequently though.

I think the spiritual successor is the Nemotron 3 series, although they also are getting a bit long in the tooth: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/nemotron/Nemotron-3/

The Gemma 4 models are a bit more up-to-date: https://huggingface.co/collections/google/gemma-4

Or Qwen3.6: https://huggingface.co/collections/Qwen/qwen36

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#216

Post by m11a »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #202
ozgung wrote: post #126

Everyone is talking about banning Chinese models but nobody talks how it is feasible to ban them. I think it’s impossible simply because technically there is no such thing as a “Chinese model”. There is no way to tell apart an “American” model from a “Chinese” one by looking at their weights. Weights are just numbers and you can’t assign country of origin to numbers. One can find very easy workarounds to any naive at…

> So, any solution to this “problem” must include ALL open-weight models. What about the EU? Would they follow Uncle Sam's order to ban all open-weight models? Lately the EU hasn't been that cozy with american companies: there are EU companies and institutions moving to EU clouds, the EU just fine Google a cool billion, several are switching away from Windows to Linux, etc. Or is it just the US that'd ban open-weight…

Probably just the US. But the US could do what EU has done with e.g. GDPR, Digital Services Act, USB-C regs, where they force any company trading in their region to follow those regulations for domestic customers.

And basically any AI company has to sell to US companies or consumers. That'd probs be sufficient to force them to use US models.

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#217

Post by m11a »

georgeburdell wrote: post #160
chasd00 wrote: post #82

FTFA: American labs need to release frontier-grade open-weight models under licenses that startups can actually build on. oh now i see, the Chinese government is funding the training and release of their best models to pressure OpenAI, Anthropic, and others to do the same for competition's sake. I don't buy it, this seems more like a way to get SOTA models RL'd to comply with Chinese government approved information d…

No, it’s consistent with what China is doing in other markets, which is dumping product to drive others out of business. I had a shower thought on how to counteract this, specifically related to the AI dumping. If China is losing substantial money on every token, why wouldn’t an adversary try to maliciously increase consumption? This strategy is not really viable against physical goods dumping because demand is finit…

Because it's not losing money on each token? Aside from most global people using American inference providers to run the models, I suspect the cloud inference products of the Chinese labs are profitable, at least on the inference costs (ie: not including model training, salaries, etc).

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#218

Post by layer8 »

m11a wrote: post #216
TacticalCoder wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So, any solution to this “problem” must include ALL open-weight models. What about the EU? Would they follow Uncle Sam's order to ban all open-weight models? Lately the EU hasn't been that cozy with american companies: there are EU companies and institutions moving to EU clouds, the EU just fine Google a cool billion, several are switching away from Windows to Linux, etc. Or is it just the US that'd ban open-weight…

Probably just the US. But the US could do what EU has done with e.g. GDPR, Digital Services Act, USB-C regs, where they force any company trading in their region to follow those regulations for domestic customers. And basically any AI company has to sell to US companies or consumers. That'd probs be sufficient to force them to use US models.

And like non-EU companies create EU subsidiaries for that reason, non-US companies would create US ones.

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#219

Post by andriy_koval »

m11a wrote: post #213
andriy_koval wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now imagine prosecutor found expert, who said there is benchmark which while performing 100k test questions found it is the same model with 98% probability, and then you need under oath testify where did you get this model.

Step 1: Chinese company publishes open weights on HF Step 2: European company distills or just adjusts the model slightly, and publishes its model on HF Step 3: American company uses model from step 2. Has to testify under oath where they got it from. "We got it from these French guys"

That French guy takes risk to be forever under US warrants for breaking American law, denied access to financial institutions even in Europe and will quickly go to some KYC entity list, and you will be notified as his clients to stop using his model.

Or you think all kind of fraud can be committed through some "french guy"?

Also, I am not confident, receiving illegal materials from French guy gates you from personal liability.

Re: Open-weight AI is having its Kubernetes moment

#220

Post by DennisP »

andsoitis wrote: post #210
DennisP wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So pharmaceutical companies spend far less on marketing outside the US, partly because every other country besides New Zealand makes those incessant drug ads illegal, and partly because governments negotiate prices and keep profit margins down. If the argument is that R&D costs are what make drugs expensive, then we could easily eliminate an even greater expense by just copying what other developed nations do.

Don’t you think drug companies would be doing that (not advertise) if it would increase their profit?

Of course advertising increases their profit. It does that by increasing their revenue even more than the cost of the advertising.

For the rest of us, that giant increase in revenue is an increase in our healthcare costs.

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