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The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

theguardian.com

41–50 of 96 posts

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if we’re actually in like a shadow recession and companies are just using AI as an excuse to do layoffs or hire less. Idk there’s a lot of diff variables and it’s complicated of course, I really don’t think it’s because “AI’s taking the jobs” tho.

Unemployment rate and labor participation rate don’t support this.. probably true for software engineering but not the broader economy afaict

Uh, wat?

Edit: for clarification, it’s never been worse. See link.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data...

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you still hate AI when it discovers the cure for your cancer?

If I did get cancer, my survival instinct might indeed get me to use it. But I'd still hate AI because it's very likely that the cancer would be caused by all the stuff we've done to the planet and AI would then just be another bandaid that would probably in turn cause more cancer because of how it will encourage more people to use resources, and how it probably will cause more stress to the average human being. And…

You raise a possible outcome and I’m going to raise another in that AI allows us to come up with the technology to improve/reverse the impact to the planet.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#43
post #7

Judging by the IT maturity of most of the companies I have worked with in the last 30 years, my guess is we're about 10-15 years from any serious changes, solely because adopting AI will require a few things. Most are running razor thin margins and wont be able to afford any of this, others have so much technical debt piled up that even if they could afford it they couldn't do anything without identifying ancient sys…

100% agree, the only people enthusiastic about it that I know are faang / startup folks here on HN. The rest, including all possible white collar jobs see it more as some medium to distant threat to their work, and life is too short to spend it enshitifying with worries about potential incoming doom, we had plenty of those. Many otherwise very capable folks do it anyway, to visible detriment of their mental health (a bit, or more than a bit, seeing it first hand).

Even managers just follow the trends and just say things others are saying, they understand that their position is not granted in case of middle management in case of bigger upheaval.

For me, I can't even have access to any recent model at work, just heavily constrained gitlab duo which is still fine for most stuff. I cost them a day much more than good monthly subscription, but so are the policies of higher management, so - I don't care. It will come, I can pick up those skills a bit later, they are not that wide and deep if one is just an agentic user. If I get fired in next few years it will be other multinational corporate forces, not this. Proper SW engineering skills and experience picked over past 25 years are not going away anytime soon, its the solid base I can build on for anything next decade or two can bring my way. Summer is here, time to enjoy the mountains, lakes and family, thats what matters long term much more.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#44
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you still hate AI when it discovers the cure for your cancer?

People can absolutely have complicated feelings about things that help them. My life is sustained by medicine produced by large international pharma companies, and I also feel really uncomfortable about that.

That’s fair, I think it’s possible to be both grateful for the existence of capitalism funding research into those companies and disgust over how much money they make.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I did get cancer, my survival instinct might indeed get me to use it. But I'd still hate AI because it's very likely that the cancer would be caused by all the stuff we've done to the planet and AI would then just be another bandaid that would probably in turn cause more cancer because of how it will encourage more people to use resources, and how it probably will cause more stress to the average human being. And…

You raise a possible outcome and I’m going to raise another in that AI allows us to come up with the technology to improve/reverse the impact to the planet.

> You raise a possible outcome and I’m going to raise another in that AI allows us to come up with the technology to improve/reverse the impact to the planet.

History has shown that we've never used technology to do that. We always go for the economic return first. We only use technology to ameliorate immediate pain, never to avoid long-term disaster.

Even green energy/solar panels - the CO2 curve hasn't been flattened because we're always constrained by business as usual. It's human instinct. I sincerely doubt AI can have a net positive impact because we're already seeing for every 1 good outcome, 100 greedy ones from the elite.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#47
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won’t. And I will. I’m not sure if your question misunderstands what AI is and what it can do, or if it misunderstands what cancer is and how medical research works.

It was more of an expression to say that AI will improve health outcomes due to its ability to increase the speed at which research is done.

It might do that, but as it looks currently you likely won't stand to benefit.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#48

All I know is that trying to get a job now is being way more brutal than before. The closest thing I got this month was a scam email from an alleged "independent global senior recruiter" "currently supporting a confidential search for a company developing AI-powered digital products". The made-with-ai smell was all over the place, the company in mention allegedly was adobe, and am pretty sure they got my email from t…

Sample size of 1 here, but my inbox is absolutely overflowing with recruiters. Sample size of more than 1 - the SWE who were laid off recently from my company are finding new jobs quickly. Certainly the job market is more brutal than it was during the covid mass hiring spree, but it doesn't seem any worse than historical average. My view is anecdotal but I haven't seen any real data on the other side of it either.

More anecdata, but around me, the opportunities for recent grads and self-taughts are less than try were.

If I was to bet, it seems that tasks that were given to new hires are now done by senior engineers and a prompt.

A collegue claims that the difference between an MBA and a mediocre compsci grad have disappeared due to vibe coding, so the compscis grads feel the job market is tougher because of increased competition.

All I know is that it's super hard to get junior devs to not be junior anymore because they don't have the opportunity anymore to learn on easy tasks.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#49
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won’t. And I will. I’m not sure if your question misunderstands what AI is and what it can do, or if it misunderstands what cancer is and how medical research works.

It was more of an expression to say that AI will improve health outcomes due to its ability to increase the speed at which research is done.

And what about the health outcomes that it will negatively impact? Like increased rare earth mining in poorer countries that cause illnesses? Oh wait, we're only talking about health incomes of those that can afford it. Never mind.

Re: The AI jobs apocalypse probably isn't coming anytime soon

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You raise a possible outcome and I’m going to raise another in that AI allows us to come up with the technology to improve/reverse the impact to the planet.

> You raise a possible outcome and I’m going to raise another in that AI allows us to come up with the technology to improve/reverse the impact to the planet. History has shown that we've never used technology to do that. We always go for the economic return first. We only use technology to ameliorate immediate pain, never to avoid long-term disaster. Even green energy/solar panels - the CO2 curve hasn't been flatten…

That’s valid, I remain hoping :’>
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