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Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

cnn.com

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Re: Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

#51

Post by shermantanktop »

bell-cot wrote: post #38
shermantanktop wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe they were poisoned, had malaria, were stabbed, and also suffocated and drowned, all at the same time? "solves" is a silly thing to ask for in matters of probability. I think this test result adds data which shifts probabilities, and that's the best we'll get.

> "Solves" is a silly thing to ask for... Maybe? If testing of their remains had revealed (say) LD95 of arsenic, or some other poison well-known at the time, it'd be pretty reasonable to call that "solved". (At least as to their cause of death. It wouldn't establish the perpetrator.)

The justice system works in binary: legal vs. illegal, guilty vs. innocent, admissible vs. not. The whole process is dominated by driving uncertainty into binary certainty, with threshold tests at every turn.

Reality as experienced in the moment is often binary (I am walking vs sitting) but is often murkily probabilistic (am I am tired because I am jet-lagged, or because I flew to give a high stakes presentation?).

History is also a mix, but facts become murkier the older they are.

So sure, LD95 sounds pretty much like we would have solved it. But if enough people wanted them dead, it’s not impossible that a lethal dose could coincide with some other cause of death. That could be my defense if I were on trial for it.

Re: Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

#52

Post by dombiscoff »

yieldcrv wrote: post #50
dombiscoff wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too am astounded by humanities desire to know things without a monetary benefit. Don't they understand the money spent on this could've gone to a vulture capital?

I see, and thats not my point proving the strains of malaria was interesting proving whether they died from arsenic or malaria isn’t, unless its of consequence half a millenia later

Says you, wouldn't historians find this interesting? The medici family is a prominent part of Italian history. But again, think of the vulture capital!

Re: Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

#53

Post by yieldcrv »

dombiscoff wrote: post #52
yieldcrv wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see, and thats not my point proving the strains of malaria was interesting proving whether they died from arsenic or malaria isn’t, unless its of consequence half a millenia later

Says you, wouldn't historians find this interesting? The medici family is a prominent part of Italian history. But again, think of the vulture capital!

I don’t really appreciate the sarcasm because I asked for an ELI5 not a “in favor of something profitable”

There could be a consequential angle I’m not aware of

Re: Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

#55

Post by broke303 »

m00dy wrote: post #36
lormayna wrote: post #30

I am living in Poggio a Caiano and I never expect it will be mentioned on HN. I know very well the history of Bianca Cappello and I am not surprised about the malaria. The area around Poggio a Caiano (Poggio means exactly "small hills") was a swamp and malaria was very common.

Then Mussolini came to power and drained all those swamps.

and all the trains arrived on time

Re: Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

#56

Post by satiric »

sidewndr46 wrote: post #37
satiric wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, ditch the wife. Become a cardinal in the Catholic church, then get elected pope. From there it should be fairly trivial to re-establish the Papal States to their largest extent.

wouldn't it be simpler to just lead a conquest and be crowned holy roman emperor?

Let's test it out. I'll become pope, you become the emperor, and we'll see who gets there first.

Re: Medici family mystery may be solved after more than 400 years

#58

Post by foobarian »

bell-cot wrote: post #2

tl;dr; - Scientists did DNA testing on the remains of the Grand Duke and his wife, and found malaria. The rival theory is poisoning by the relative who was next in line for the Ducal throne. HOWEVER, this test result solves nothing: > But is there any guarantee that Francesco was not also poisoned? > “Perhaps not,” Ochoa said, “but the genetic evidence presented in our study decreases the margin for speculation.” > G…

Or, maybe the poisoner did it by releasing a jar of malaria-laden mosquitoes in the guy's bedroom. Such plausible deniability!
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